Winter 2017-18 40 Man Roster / Rule 5 Draft

[Slinging_Southpaw]

These are only a problem for a contending team. If that player you chose in the draft isn't what you thought they were, you send them back, there's no real downside, it costs close to nothing.

[julio]

The thing with the Rule 5 is, you don't get to pick the three guys you want.

It's a draft. The Phils pick third, which means that, if they agree with SS's view of value, they can pick one of the three guys he named. One, not all three.

Then they sit, while 29 other teams make choices (or pass). Then they get to pick agin. But if SS's evaluation of value is even close to right, the other two guys he named will be GONE, before the Phils' second pick rolls around. And by the third round...

Given the above... making out a lineup or roster including the three guys you "want" in the Rule 5 draft isn't really different than making out a lineup with Mike Trout in center field, and proposing some off-the-wall trade to get Trout from the Angels. Neither of them is something the General Manager could accomplish, even if he desperately wanted to.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

I agree, though the 2nd round is very few teams and the 3rd is pretty much non-existent(besides San Diego). The chances of getting all 3 is very slim. I have back up picks and if you don't get what you want, sign a couple Free Agents to flip for prospects at the trade deadline.
These are my picks:
My Rule 5 Choices
Travis Demeritte-3B/2B(ATL)
Josh Fuentes-3B(CO)

Tito Polo-OF(CHI)AL
Dustin Peterson-OF(ATL)
Victor Reyes#-OF(AZ)
Wes Rogers-OF(CO)

Brad Keller-RHP(AZ)
Kohl Stewart-RHP(MN)
Tyler Eppler-RHP(PIT)
Travis Ott-LHP(TB)
Jordan Romano-RHP(TOR)
Jordon Guerrero-LHP(CHI)AL
John Means-LHP(Balt)
Dedgar Jimenez-LHP(BOS)

[Slinging_Southpaw]

One thing I want to be clear on, I don't expect any Rule 5 pick to do what Odubel Herrera did, that's unrealistic. I'm still blown away at what he did his first season. I expect these players to be back-ups, part time players and mop up innings, then go to AAA the following season and be a part of the future or future asset. To me, that's better than just watching another washed up veteran walk away with nothing to show for it, which is what usually happens.

[allentown]

I'd like the Phillies to select and carry 1 FA pick. I'm also not a fan of some of the extremely marginal vets the Phillies have carried. I think 3 Rule 5 guys on the roster is unrealistic, however.

[Austinfan]

Uh, Nava was pretty good, Blanco was pretty good, etc.
Just invite enough washed up veterans to camp and you'll find a couple ready to bounce back and provide value at low cost without blocking prospects ready to play.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Last year we had Cam Perkins(88ABs), Brock Stassi(78ABs) and Ty Kelly(88ABs). Andres Blanco got 130 ABs and none of them hit over .193. Michael Saunders, another veteran hit .205 in 200ABs, with an OPS of .617.
That's 454 ABs and what do we have to show for it?
Were Perkins, Stassi and Kelly higher on the pecking order? All 3 were available in last years Rule 5 Draft.
The only good thing you can say about any of them, is if they were DFA'd, you wouldn't have to worry about losing them.

[California_Dreamin]

As far as I can recall the Phils have never carried more than 2 players for the entire year. Probably the one that I felt was potentially the most impressive was in 1991 when they carried both Sal Campusano [taken 1st] and Dave Hollins [taken 2nd.] Campusano was a hot shot outfield prospect from Toronto and I remember thinking that the Phils were finally going to get re-paid or losing outfielder George Bell to the Blue Jays back in 1980.

In fact, it was Hollins who became a mainstay, anchoring the middle of the order with that '93 WS team, whereas Campusano never could hit enough to be useful.

Personally, I would be thrilled if the Phils got one useful player in this draft. The talk in SF is that the Giants might take Tocci with their first pick, one pick before the Phils select.

[zambonir]

I think the team is farther along than you do, I guess. You don't ever want to stop adding talent, but the Phillies need players who can help this year as well as for the next three years, and those type of players are more easily acquired on the FA or trade market, or on minor league deals. A signing like Bourjos or even the dreaded Delmon Young is not that different from a Rule V guy, there are always those rare instances where they work out great, or at least turn into competent depth.

And Blanco had value in other ways, while Saunders had more upside than a Rule V guy (and the same floor). The whole point of a Perkins or Kelly or Stassi is that you can cycle them in and out. I guess it just doesn't bother me when a team carries that 25th veteran, whether it's So Taguchi or Michael Martinez (non-Rule V year, though he's a good person to discuss I guess. It was fine to carry a Rule V guy in that role but did it really matter either way?)

I just think this year's bench has to be better. The 5th OF should not be an afterthought (it should be Quinn if they sign a FA). The back-up 3B option is either Galvis/Crawford or they need to find someone who could legitimately step up if Franco falters, even if it's just for this season. The fungible guys who played only played because Kendrick and Nava were hurt. Signing two Rule V guys instead of two of Kendrick, Nava or Saunders wouldn't have been a good move.

That's not to say the Phillies shouldn't constantly be getting future assets too, but they'll be able to get better ones on the trade market when when it's time to move Galvis, Hernandez, a catcher, possibly even a young starter.

And in most cases even the flippable vets are going to give and get you more than the Rule V guy - their production plus their trade return.

[Philsmania]

As I have stated before, the Phillies already have many young players to try out this season and, as a result, roster spots will be at a premium. I don't think this is the year for them to dabble in Rule 5 guys. However, the Phillies historically are very active in the Rule 5.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Yes, they have many players to try out, but most would be better off getting consistent AB's at AAA, rather than playing part time. Quinn would be good option, but pretty much no one has missed more time than him. I don't want to see any of the prospects we already have missing developmental time on the bench.

[andyb]

As I have stated before, the Phillies already have many young players to try out this season and, as a result, roster spots will be at a premium. I don't think this is the year for them to dabble in Rule 5 guys. However, the Phillies historically are very active in the Rule 5.

I have no problem taking one if they have high ceiling tools. But in general agree that the one thing we have as an organization is depth. So we actually have players like Quinn who would probably be better fits in a reserve role than we could actually draft.

[allentown]

This is my bench.
Knapp-C
Florimon-SS(UT)
Demeritte-2B/3B(Rule 5)
Veteran LH-(1B/OF)
Polo-OF(Rule 5)

I don't see this bench working for the Phillies. Demeritte being almost two years younger than Walding may well have a higher ceiling than Walding, but Walding had a far better season at AA last year, and would almost be of more use to the 2018 Phillies. At some point, one of the two spare IF is going to have to be sent down/released because, even if one of Galvis or Hernandez is traded this winter, one likely is still on the team when Kingery takes over 2B. I think Quinn helps more in the OF than Polo and has a higher ceiling, despite his injury history. Quinn has talent and played reasonably well in AAA, so I think he might as well get whatever healthy playing time he has in him at the major league level. Really, Tocci is likely to be as useful a 4th OF as Polo.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

My whole reason is to add talent. If Walding was on another team, he may be a target. He's already with the Phillies, so I'd rather he got full time ABs at Lehigh Valley, same with Quinn. If neither of the players you drafted work out, you still have Walding and Quinn getting full time AB's at AAA. =Win/Win

[zambonir]

In the end I believe the Phillies are going to have 39 players who are better than a second Rule V pick. Maybe one or two of them won't seem that way, but, for instance, the decision to pick Garcia over Goedell proved correct, as did the decision to not give up on Adam Morgan.

In past years that might not have been true. In past years the Phillies would have been the team drafting Tocci or considering an Appel, but if they didn't protect Tocci over Perkins they're unlikely to draft a young OF over Perkins. Perkins is likely gone, but if so it will be for someone who is demonstrably better, not for a green 5th OF to stash on the bench. Same with Curtis, potentially.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

I really don't think they are protecting Perkins or Curtis over anyone. They are simply holding down roster spots. If Perkins and Curtis make it through the winter on the 40 man roster, I will absolutely be shocked. I'll be surprised if they both last the week. The roster is at 40 now and we have holes to fill, someone has to go and its probably going to be them first.

[LoneStarPhan]

I think it is almost a certainty that the Phillies will sign one or more ML free agents and/or acquire additional player(s) via trade that will require roster spots on the 40 man roster that will require removing someone from that roster. There is much to consider when setting the roster prior to the winter meetings. I am sure many hours of planning went into the moves made so far.

[zambonir]

Of course. The only question is when and how will they remove some other guys (potentially Joseph, Rupp and one IF) off the 40.

[David_Criss]

Using SS list, which is a good list I like:
Josh Fuentes
Wes Rogers
Tito Polo
Jordan Guerrero
Travis Ott

There are names that could be removed from the 40-man. The Phillies should absolutely try to get one or two of these guys into camp this Spring. If they work out great, if not, you are out a few bucks.

[zambonir]

I think the fact that the 40-man roster is actually at 40 tells you a lot about their intentions. 1 pick at best. I forget what the rule is, can you make a pick and remove someone from the 40 at the same time or do you have to have the spot when the draft begins?

Yeah, there are guys that can be removed but those spots are for free agents or trades, they need two starters, 1 or 2 relievers, 1 or 2 bench guys, even if they can also delete a catcher and Joseph. While there wouldn't be any harm in taking two Rule V players to spring training I don't think they'll have the roster space,