Winter 2017-18 40 Man Roster / Rule 5 Draft

nycphils 2017-07-08 15:37:36 UTC #1

Trying to figure out who needs to be protected and who may be exposed in the offseason, because I think if the roster is as stuffed as I think it will be it may drive us to be buyers of expensive assets at the deadline, such as Sonny Gray (2 more years of control).

Here's what I see in terms of what the 40 man looks like at the end of the year assuming no changes:

1 Knapp
2 Rupp
3 Joseph
4 C. Hernandez
5 Galvis
6 Franco
7 Altherr
8 Williams
9 Herrera
10 Perkins
11 Pivetta
12 Nola
13 Lively
14 Leiter
15 Neris
16 Luis Garcia
17 Pinto
18 Milner
19 Morgan
20 Eickoff
22 Velasquez
23 Elneiry Garcia
24 Alfaro
25 Pullin
26 Hoskins
27 Jesmuel valentin
28 Crawford
29 Quinn
30 Cozens
31 Eflin
32 Ramos
33 Therrien
34 Walding
35 Tocci
36 Leibrant
37 Arano
38 Kilome
39 Viza
40 Alberto Tirado
41 Ranger Suarez
42 Seranthony Dominguez

Top 30/other prospects not yet eligible - Kingery, Eshelman, Coppola, Adonis Medina, Moniak, Sanchez, Gowdy, Brito, J. Ortiz, JoJo, E. Garcia, Randolph

Prominently left off - Appel, Thompson, Watson, Canello, Stassi, Ty Kelly, Rivero, Stankiewicz, Cord Sandberg, Yackel Rios, Tromp, Grullion, Jose Pujols

Minor League Games - Tuesday, August 1, 2017

allentown 2017-07-08 16:59:21 UTC #2

I don't think I'd protect Milner or Morgan. If Hoskins is our 1B next year, and IMHO he should be, then we need a trade to make Joseph disappear. I'm not sure Viza is worth protecting. I want to see Neris traded. I would protect Thompson.

California_Dreamin 2017-07-08 17:16:41 UTC #3

Agree on Thompson. He would be gobbled up quickly and he is still a key piece of the Hamels deal. I think the Phils messed with him mentally late last year/early this year and his issues are not physical but mental. His situation seems reminiscent of the way Gavin Floyd was treated back in the early 2000's, Up and down, start then relieve, he loves me, he loves me not.

I happen to believe McClure has damaged several young hurlers since the Phils brought him onboard. Other than Stairs, I would completely clean house of all Phillie coaches/manager at the end of the year.

nycphils 2017-07-08 17:33:06 UTC #4

Milner will be taken again if left unprotected - that may be fine, but seems likely.

Thompson I agree would get taken, and so would Morgan - if the Phils would make Morgan a LOOGY, he'd be ok and he's useful to have around as an emergency guy too. He gives up only a .652 OPS to LHs in '17, and similar from '14-'16 at .687 OPS against vs. LH. He doesn't have the stuff to get RHs out regularly, but that's not his fault, that's misuse. He's not arb eligible for 2 more years.

zambonir 2017-07-08 19:07:21 UTC #5

It seems unlikely the Philllies will still have all three catchers and both 1B come November. The two 2B and two SSs, still hard to say.

Morgan seems expendable to me. I'm guessing two or three of the others will become part of a trade. Maybe someone gets thrown in w/ Rupp or Knapp. Agreed that they could also trade some prospects for a young veteran, whether at the deadline or in the off-season, though I don't think compression would be the primary reason to do it.

I gotta think at least one of the OFs will be moved (or two, if Perkins is just left off).

Appel you probably lose in the Rule V (or he could be traded before), I guess we'll probably see him pitch in some role in September? After that it's probably a question of Klentak's ego.

allentown 2017-07-08 20:58:59 UTC #6

Drew Anderson needs to at least be considered.

nycphils 2017-07-08 21:31:32 UTC #7

No doubt, an oversight. Undoubtedly on the 40 man again. Thanks!

nycphils 2017-07-09 21:53:26 UTC #8

Based on this report and his stats (38 IP/48K, .189 avg against and only 10 BB), Yacksel Rios will need to be protected or he'll be gone:

-You talked about Shane adding some ticks on the radar gun and I think reliever Yacksel Rios (who was named an Easter League All-Star on Thursday) has done the same. He was on this team last year and has enjoyed much more success in 2017. Nice turnaround for him...

Rios last year struggled with command and confidence. The double C's. But this year he's been great. He's got both of them. The confidence is back. His arm slot's a little higher than what it was last year and I think just him coming back here knowing what he was getting into in the this league has helped him a lot. I think the confidence is the biggest thing. His stuff is the same. He's gotten better with his slider and he's got a good fastball. He's 95 to 98 with it. He just needs to stay healthy and keep pitching and continue on the track that he's on.

(Quote from Steve Schenk, Reading pitching coach in an interview by Phoulbalz):

Austinfan 2017-07-10 03:18:27 UTC #9

Anderson, Thompson, Watson, Rivero, Rios, Tromp, Grullon and Tocci are good candidates to be protected.
ANderson is obvious, Thompson if the arm is fine, Watson depending on how he finishes in the bullpen, Rivero throws hard out of the pen, same with Rios.
Tromp is tearing it up at Reading and is a 5 tool guy, he'll have the nod over Tocci, who'll be picked up b/c he can be a defensive replacement/PH while he learns the ML game.
Grullon is a young catcher with great defensive skills, he's a lock for the 40.

julio 2017-07-10 05:34:58 UTC #10

Not going to even attempt to comment. Too soon; "assuming no changes" is, I sincerely hope, not relevant - there have to be changes between now and November 20th.

zambonir 2017-07-10 06:17:35 UTC #11

The product on the field has made us into perennial hot stovers

nycphils 2017-07-10 07:00:48 UTC #12

The point is to demonstrate that the team - either at the deadline or in December - almost HAS to deal some excess prospects for a star.this shows that we are probably at least 5 if not more over the 40 man limit with prospects we'd lose if kept and unprotected

zambonir 2017-07-10 09:00:40 UTC #13

But it doesn't really show that they have to deal excess prospects for a star. That's one approach. That would certainly be nice, if it gets a really good player. But just from your list we can delete Rupp, Joseph, Galvis and maybe even Hernandez (w/o adding Kingery to the 40 until spring training). I wouldn't lose sleep over Morgan or Perkins, and they weren't afraid to lose Milner last year. They could quietly move on from Quinn if they had to (and he'd still get you something). I bet at least one starting pitcher goes. And a reliever could too. While it all depends who they could get, still a lot easier to move on from a Ramos or Garcia than include a Therrien or Tirado in a big trade.

nycphils 2017-07-10 12:03:11 UTC #14

That's a very pedantic answer. Yes, of course they don't technically HAVE to make a trade - they could just risk losing a bunch of guys for nothing. I will amend my statement to say "If they don't want to risk losing a bunch of guys for nothing, they almost have to make a trade...". I though that went without saying, but YMMV.

zambonir 2017-07-10 20:04:57 UTC #15

I don't think moving low value trade assets or DFAing marginal players is losing guys for "nothing." A compression trade for a high-quality return will mean parting ways with significantly higher-value assets. Given the setbacks we've seen this year I don't think swapping four AA/AAA bodies for one major leaguer is necessarily desirable.

Don't get me wrong, unlike julio I'm all for chatter and speculation when there's little else to talk about (not even major league games this week). But look at this year, which was just as crunched. Should they have traded, say, Knapp, Jesmuel Valentin and Tirado for a starting pitcher or OF (instead of the guys they got) or was it better to just lose Asher and Goedell?

It will be a fun topic in November for sure, though I don't think roster space will be the main reason for trade activity. It has to happen anyway, to address some of the redundancies and continue improving the talent level. I do hope something unexpected happens at the deadline.

nycphils 2017-10-01 23:46:29 UTC #16

Here the list of those I think need to be protected - still over the 40 mark:

1 Knapp
2 Rupp
3 Joseph
4 C. Hernandez
5 Galvis
6 Franco
7 Altherr
8 Williams
9 Herrera
10 Pivetta
11 Seranthony Dominguez
12 Nola
13 Lively
14 Leiter
15 Neris
16 Luis Garcia
17 Pinto
18 Milner
19 Morgan
20 Eickoff
22 Velasquez
23 Elneiry Garcia
24 Alfaro
25 Pullin
26 Hoskins
27 Jesmuel valentin
28 Crawford
29 Quinn
30 Cozens
31 Eflin
32 Ramos
33 Therrien
34 Walding
35 Tocci
36 Leibrant
37 Arano
38 Kilome
39 Viza
40 Ranger Suarez
41 Y. Rios
42 Thompson
43 McKenzie Mills

Top 30/other prospects not yet eligible - Kingery, Eshelman, Coppola, Adonis Medina, Moniak, Sanchez, Gowdy, Brito, J. Ortiz, JoJo, E. Garcia, Randolph, Hammer

Prominently left off - Appel, Watson, Canello, Stassi, Ty Kelly, Rivero, Stankiewicz, Cord Sandberg, Tromp, Grullion, Jose Pujols, Tavares, Jose Gomez

DFA possible off the 40 man: Joseph, Therrien

allentown 2017-10-02 00:11:39 UTC #17

I would not protect Walding or Pullin or Valentin or Leibrant or Viza. I'd trade one of the catchers and Joseph before the Rule 5 draft and try hard to move Galvis.

schooldoc 2017-10-02 00:27:39 UTC #18

I am with allentown...there are several guys on that list of 43 that are expendable. Pullin, Viza, and Therrien off recent TJ surgery are three off the list right away, for me. And this is before trades of one of the catchers, Joseph, one of the middle infielders, and perhaps others.

nycphils 2017-10-02 01:18:43 UTC #19

Therrien is on because he's young, already has made the majors and can be stashed for the year - rule is that if a player spends his entire Rule V year on the MLB DL he needs only to be kept on the active roster for the first 90 days of the next season in order to no longer be required to offer him back. I could see that chance being taken, despite his poor showing with the Phils.

zambonir 2017-10-02 02:17:11 UTC #20

Yeah I think you probably do have to protect Therrien. But looking at that list I don't think it's going to be very hard. There are guys on there I think will be gone (definitely Joseph and probably Rupp), guys I'm willing to lose (Valentin assuming they haven't already traded another middle IF) and guys who I don't think would be lost. It will actually be tougher in spring training, depending how many guys get moved in post-Rule V transactions.