Winter 2017-18 40 Man Roster / Rule 5 Draft

julio 2017-10-02 03:42:38 UTC #21

There are 43 players on the roster (after eliminating the four FA-to-be). They probably want to clear about 10-11 of these guys, one way or another, to make room for seven or eight prospects.

Possible deletions:

Outrights: Appel, Therrien, Kelly, Valentin, Florimon, Perkins.
Non-Tenders: Alvarez, Siegrist.
Trades: Rupp, Galvis, Joseph.

Possible prospects to protect:

Pitchers: Franklyn Kilome, Jose Taveras, Seranthony Dominguez, Miguel Nunez
Catcher: Deivi Grullon
Infielders: Mitch Walding
Outfielders: Carlos Tocci, Jiandido Tromp, Andrew Pullin.

I'm not convinced about any of the non-pitchers listed, though. None of them is an obvious breakout candidate (Walding, maybe?), and any of them would be hard to carry on a ML bench.

Prospects on nycphils' list I've left off: Saurez, Viza, Leibrandt. Saurez is in high-A ball, didn't dominate. Viza and Leibrandt just don't look good enough to worry about. McKenzie Mills isn't eligible this year - 2014 HS signee, signed at age 18.

Overall, this looks like it's eminently manageable - several of the prospects I would have worried about losing are already on the 4o-man roster, thanks to in-season turnover and promotions.

andyb 2017-10-02 03:54:55 UTC #22

On the prospects to protect we definitely protect Kilome, Dominguez, and likely Tocci. After that I am not sure. Has Pullin shown enough to make it worth protecting him? Grullon may have the most potential but is nowhere near ready. Even if we lose any of those other players I think they are coming back. I might actually think about Leibrandt before some of those mentioned because he could entice someone as a LOOGY.

Agree generally that this winter is more manageable than last. Though maybe because that we leave a spot open to select someone.

Philsmania 2017-10-02 14:37:13 UTC #23

Plus, unless we get all of our work done before the winter meetings, we probably need to leave a spot or two open for a free agent or two or, possibly, a Rule 5 pick, though I think the timing isn't right for that.

Austinfan 2017-10-02 15:20:30 UTC #24

We need to protect Grullon, a team could carry him as a backup C based on his defense, and he's 21 at Reading.
Kilome will need to be protected.
Tocci probably as well, since he could fill in right now as a defensive replacement/PR, allowing a team to stash him on the 25 (think Inciarte).

Forget Therrien, doubt anyone picks him up coming off TJ surgery. And if so, we have plenty of RH RPs in the system.

Joseph - traded before the Rule 5 draft
Pullin - LF only, fielding suspect, didn't hit in AAA, on the bubble
Valentin - missed the year due to injury, on the bubble
Walding - stats inflated by Reading ballpark, on the bubble
Leibrandt - doesn't throw hard enough and is older, on the bubble
Viza - didn't show enough at Reading, on the bubble

Squire 2017-10-02 15:39:01 UTC #25

I agree with Austinfan pretty much.
Looking to trade Rupp and Joseph almost immediately. Assuming successful, I'd give Gruillon Rupp's spot.
I'd remove Therrien, Liebrandt and maybe even Leiter and Milner.
II love Pullin but we can't put him on the 40.
I'm still yes on Valentin. We have so few 3Bs that I might put Walding on
No to Viza.
Yes to Kilome, Tocci, Dominguez,

andyb 2017-10-02 15:39:46 UTC #26

Just not sure Grullon is highly enough regarded to really be at risk of losing him in the rule 5. He needs a couple more years in the minors and profiles as a backup catcher at this point. It is worth the risk most likely to expose him.

On Therrien it is more complicated than just saying nobody would select him. The way I understand the rules we would have to put him on outright waivers during a short period after the conclusion of the World Series. Then another team could claim him on waivers even though he was injured. That team could then choose to not protect him (and there is a good bet he would not be selected because of injury). But for the Phillies the waivers are a lower barrier that means we might actually lose him.

julio 2017-10-02 16:20:07 UTC #27

To get Therrien off the 40-man roster, the Phillies would have to outright him, and he could be claimed by any other club. However, any club claiming him would have to add him to their 40-man roster; you can't claim a player who is on outright waivers and then just assign that player to the minors - you have to add him to your major-league roster. So a claiming club would have to protect Therrien on their 40-man roster, or else expose him to outright waivers again to get him off that roster.

andyb 2017-10-02 16:28:34 UTC #28

That is what I was saying. Yes teams need to put him on the 40-man roster - but they do not need to put him on the 25-man roster. That is a lower barrier. It might also give them an opportunity at some point to sneak him through waivers when rosters are relatively full. But mainly if a team wants him more all they need to do is keep him on the 40 and they may have rosters that are less full at this time than the Phillies do.

I'd say it is at least 50-50 we lose Therrien if we outright him. Near zero chance of him getting selected in the rule 5 if he gets through waivers, but we have to get to that point.

Philsmania 2017-10-02 16:35:10 UTC #29

The Therrien situation reminds me of what the Braves did with Jesse Biddle. They claimed him off waivers from the Pirates who, I believe, claimed him off waivers from the Phillies during the 2015-16 offseason. The Braves had enough space on the 40 man to keep there through ST, at the end of which they were able to stash him on the 60-day DL all season because of his TJ surgery and keep him on the 40 man roster. He's still on the Braves' 40 man roster. With Therrien, he'll need to get claimed by a team that has 40 man roster space until the end of ST and can likewise then stash him on the 60 day DL all season.

Speaking of Biddle, he appeared to be having a decent season pitching out of the bullpen for the Braves' AA team in Mississippi (2-4, 2.90, .254 BAA, 1.29 WHIP) but did not pitch after July 11. Yet another injury?

julio 2017-10-02 16:38:53 UTC #30

Pardon? This is a discussion concerning the winter rosters - there are no 25-man rosters, just the 40. If a team claims Therrien, they are in the same position with regard to him at that point as the Phillies are now: e.g., he's on their 40-man roster. He either stays on their 40-man winter roster, or he's exposed to outright waivers.

Now, it's entirely possible that some club may have enough room on their winter roster to keep Therrien on the roster, notwithstanding that he's not going to be of use in 2018 - room that the Phillies do not have on their roster. I don't know if your 50-50 odds are accurate, but it certainly could happen.

Also... this 40-man roster constraint with regard to a player like Therrien is purely an off-season problem. If he stays on our winter roster (or if he is outrighted and claimed by some other team, and is on their winter roster), he will be moved to the 60-day DL next spring, freeing up an in-season spot on the 40-man roster.

It will come down to how they value Therrien, long-term - relative to how they value the player they have to expose to the Rule 5 draft to retain Therrien on the 40-man roster.

andyb 2017-10-02 16:59:32 UTC #31

The rule 5 draft (in the subject title) affects the 25-man roster. It is a higher barrier to keeping a player. With the TJ surgery it would force someone to keep him on the 60-DL all next season and then at least 90 days in 2019 assuming he is healthy.

It is much easier for a team to claim Therrien in a waiver claim than a rule 5 claim. As Philsmania said, this is a lot like Biddle. When we took him off the 40 (it was actually a minor trade for a non prospect to Pittsburgh) we lost him. That could happen with Therrien. He could end up with 3 or 4 teams if more of them try to waive him (like happened with Biddle), but if the Phillies want to keep him then they probably should not outright him and then use the 60-day DL next year.

nycphils 2017-10-02 17:21:14 UTC #32

I think Rupp has enough value to trade; Joseph I doubt. I'd rather Outright him to LHV over releasing or dealing him for cash. If he's lost not a crisis.

Leiter seems like a solid swing man; at least he deserves a year to prove it. Can't see them letting him go; he'd be selected in Rule V no question.

I'd try to deal MIlner; he's gone if not protected after showing he can hang in the bigs this season. Got to protect Liebrant. Gone otherwise, shown too much to let go for zero, both at REA and LHV.

I think Therrien will be picked by a Tigers/Royals/etc team that has a weak farm and thus it's worth carrying an arm that will be 26 in 2019 and shown a fair amount. I guess where the Phils are you have to chance it and not protect.

I think I'm with you here - that he's in AAA means he's easier to risk selecting, but he can't hit lefties and didn't show enough at age 24.

Agree

No question.

Austinfan 2017-10-02 17:58:58 UTC #33

Milner got ML hitters out, Leiter is a credible LR/spot starter, you have to protect both of them, at worst you can trade them for A ball prospects.
Leibrandt right now is a AAAA SP, and maybe a LOOGY, but Milner is a ML LOOGY. Leibrandt had arm trouble in 2016, and while he pitched decently last year, he wasn't as effective at Reading/Lehigh with a FB that's only 86-88.

While he's LH, with Romero and Irvin in AA next year, and a bunch of LH starters at Clearwater, there's no urgency to keep him.

While I wouldn't want to lose Therrien, reality says he's behind Pinto, Rios, and the flock of RPs coming up who'll have to be protected when he returns from TJ surgery in 2019. Not sure about 2019 eligibility, but Davis, E Garcia, Sanchez, Arauz, Singer, Rivero, Tirado, Gilbert, McGarry, Leftwich, Hammer, Bettencourt could all be at Reading next year.

nycphils 2017-10-02 18:28:27 UTC #34

Scouting reports I've seen put Leibrants fastball at 87-90 mph this season; was touching 92 pre surgery IIRC after being 86-88 mph in college.

If he can get his velocity back, he likely can be an MLB starter. If not, it's less clear but I don't see how you let him go. At the very least he can be a Rule V LOOGY, which means he's gone in my view if not protected.

Hellickson had the same fastball topping at 90 mph, and as a RHP; he wasn't great, but he cost $17m. Leibrant costs under $1m for the next 2-3 years.

julio 2017-10-02 18:29:55 UTC #35

andyb - We're in agreement that it would be easier to claim Therrien off waivers and retain him than to draft him in the Rule 5 - put him on the winter roster, then DL him in March.

That said, the Rule 5 requirement is actually less onerous for somebody like Therrien than for a healthy pitcher; e.g., stash him on the 60-day DL all of 2018, DL60 him again in April 2019, have him work out in Florida until he's healthy, than let him rehab in the minors for a bit, bring him up and stick him in the 'pen for July-September of 2019. If you're not a contender, that's not a major hurdle, really - back of the bullpen for half a season. The major cost there is that you have to pay him a major-league salary, and he accrues service time while on the DL. Is he worth that gamble? Possibly, to some clubs.

Agreed, though - if the Phils want to keep Therrien, they shouldn't assume they can get him back off some other club's waivers after we waive him. If we want to keep him, we keep him on the winter roster. But again, that depends on how they see his value relative to whoever they have to expose to the Rule 5 draft if they don't free up Therrien's roster spot.

Austinfan 2017-10-02 18:39:06 UTC #36

And not just 2018, they would then have to keep him on the 40 man roster in 2019 as he works his way back into baseball shape.
So you not only expose a player this year, you probably expose another RP next year.
That's a lot for an unproven RP coming off a serious injury, he had a decent FB and a plus slider, but he wasn't Giles, for example.
Arano might have jumped ahead of him even if healthy.

Problem with Leibrandt is he's gonig to be the 4th-5th starter on Lehigh with a slew of starters in Reading.
If the Phls sign a FA [Nola, FA, Lively, Eickhoff, Velasquez/Pivetta] then Eflin, Thompson, Eshelman, Anderson are the top 4 at Lehigh with Tavares, Leibrandt, at the back of the rotation.
Depth is a wonderful thing, but it means you have to expose some guys.

Philsmania 2017-10-02 18:43:16 UTC #37

I tend to agree that it's probably not worth the dead roster spot to save Therrien. We do have other relievers on the way up if not emerging, as others have pointed out.

California_Dreamin 2017-10-02 19:38:25 UTC #38

I completely disagree about letting Therrien slip from the 40 man roster simply because he had Tommy John surgery. This was a guy that everyone loved for 90% of the season, many thought he was the best relief prospect in the organization and we know that most hurlers come back from TJ surgery as better than ever.

If the Phils remove him from the roster he will get claimed and allowed to rehab. If he is as good as many of us believed, he is likely come back and be very effective. I want that effectiveness to be as a Phillie, not as a Royal or Tiger.

And with the solid late season efforts of hurlers like Morgan, Rios, Arano and Milner, if there seems one thing the Phils can be its patient with young relievers rehabbing from surgery. They now seem to have lots of depth in the bullpen, both at the major league level and at the minor league level.

julio 2017-10-02 19:56:43 UTC #39

I think most of us agree with this sentiment - in a vacuum. Therrien has value. But this isn't just about Therrien's value.

It's also about the value of the guy who won't get protected if Therrien is on the roster. The challenge is, the Phillies only have 40 roster spots - and if Therrien is on the winter roster on November 20th, somebody else will not be. Until you have all the available information (e.g., trades, etc.), it's impossible to know whether Therrien's value is higher than the guy he would bump from the roster...so I don't see how we can "decide" at this point that he absolutely should, or should not, be on the winter roster. That's a decision that can only be intelligently made on or about November 20th (when it has to be made, and when Klentak will have the maximum amount of information).

I do think we have to recognize that Therrien is 'on the bubble,' as in, this is a decision that will have to be made in November. Aaron Nola's presence on the winter roster is a given (barring a trade, of course). Therrien's is not; it's going to depend on who else might need that roster spot.

flyers19rw 2017-10-02 20:18:32 UTC #40

I’d favor putting Valentin on the 40 man if he’s healthy again. Supposedly the Phillies will be moving MIFs this winter. If Cesar and Freddie are gone, having Valentine as a reserve makes sense.