Winter 2017-18 40 Man Roster / Rule 5 Draft

[California_Dreamin]

julio...I agree with you, to a point. I am merely pointing out that to dismiss Therrien because he had TJ surgery and to believe that he wouldn't be claimed is short sighted and likely to come back and haunt us. The guy was a major arm and all one needs do is look back to the minor league postings from April-June and to Peter Mac's comments about him to recall what a top talent he was, and is.

I simply do not want any more Kevin Sefcik or Rob Ducey protections anymore, they are foolish and self defeating. Teams know this much about the Phils now...they are a young team flush with young talent, much of it still unrefined. I want no Derrick Turnbow repeats, he was a reliever the Phils never thought would get claimed due to injury...wrong. Sat for a year, barely pitched, then turned into a closer that once notched 39 saves with the Brewers.

I believe Therrien has that kind of potential. If he is not protected, the Phils will lose him.

[julio]

I’d favor putting Valentin on the 40 man if he’s healthy again. Supposedly the Phillies will be moving MIFs this winter. If Cesar and Freddie are gone, having Valentine as a reserve makes sense.

Well, they'll certainly need some reserve/utility infielder type on Opening Day.

My guess is that one middle infielder - probably Galvis - gets moved, and they open the season with Cesar at 2B, J.P. at SS, and Maikel at 3B. They need somebody on the bench who can fill in. Blanco will be gone (FA, and his game has pretty much collapsed). Valentin and Florimon are both on the roster as of now; they could keep one of them (can't imagine they'll keep both), but they could almost as easily outright both of them (Would they clear waivers? Would they survive the Rule 5 draft?), see what happens, and then pick up some veteran to fill that role if neither Valentin nor Florimon is still in the system after December 14th. They need somebody in the "utility backup infielder" role - but it's not very important who that is.

[zambonir]

Ok, y'all have convinced me Therrien is gone. If anything his value is the ability to move him to the 60 out of ST. But he's not going to throw a pitch for you until 2019 or possibly be a true asset until 2020, and he's a relief pitcher, so you probably move on. Like julio said, in a vacuum, great, but I wouldn't even want to lose Leiter for him right now. And if he goes in the Rule V there's a lot of opportunities for him to come back.

I'm probably crazy but I kinda think you can let go of Tocci, unless you decide to trade Quinn. But it's hard for me to imagine both of them being in the organization in 2019 so why lose someone else for them now?

That said, it's unlikely the Phillies would lose more than two players and even then they could come back. Exposing players is not nearly as risky as we tend to think it is beforehand. (I seem to recall most people being certain there'd be two or three big losses last year, and there was only one, and he came back.)

[Philsmania]

julio...I agree with you, to a point. I am merely pointing out that to dismiss Therrien because he had TJ surgery and to believe that he wouldn't be claimed is short sighted and likely to come back and haunt us. The guy was a major arm and all one needs do is look back to the minor league postings from April-June and to Peter Mac's comments about him to recall what a top talent he was, and is.

I simply do not want any more Kevin Sefcik or Rob Ducey protections anymore, they are foolish and self defeating. Teams know this much about the Phils now...they are a young team flush with young talent, much of it still unrefined. I want no Derrick Turnbow repeats, he was a reliever the Phils never thought would get claimed due to injury...wrong. Sat for a year, barely pitched, then turned into a closer that once notched 39 saves with the Brewers.

I believe Therrien has that kind of potential. If he is not protected, the Phils will lose him.

I don't think anyone is dismissing Therrien, just recognizing that forty man roster spots are a somewhat precious commodity and it may make more sense to protect someone else. Plus, as you yourself stated, relief pitching may be emerging as an area of depth where taking a risk in exposing a TJ patient may not burn us too badly if he gets picked and comes back strong in 2019 because other guys will emerge and soften that blow. Exposing Therrien to waivers won't mean protecting another Sefcik or Ducey. It will mean protecting another prospect. You can't protect them all, unfortunately.

[julio]

I simply do not want any more Kevin Sefcik or Rob Ducey protections anymore,

Agreed! But I don't think we're in for that (or a Kevin Jordan protection, either!). See my above comment about middle infielders - I don't think they need to protect Florimon or Valentin, who strike me as more or less equivalent to some of the replacement-level (or a bit better) guys that filled some roster spots in the bad old days. My view is that you don't protect guys who can easily be replaced (unless you haven't got anything better, of course!). But this organization is to the point that I don't expect the winter roster to include dead wood.

[Austinfan]

It's a good thing if we lose a player or two.
Because it means our 40+ guys are worth taking, that's a sign of solid organizational depth.
Now I don't want to protect Kelly et al, we have too many good prospects to protect scrubs we can invite to ST (or their equivalent).
But it's not that Therrien or Liebrandt aren't worth protecting, it's just that we have a lot of other players worth protecting.

One thing Klentak is doing in the pen is safety in numbers, adding McGarry, Hammer, etc. to go with a bunch of college pitchers he's drafted in the later rounds.
And I expect a full quota of veteran invites to camp, he can throw contract money around to entice them (I'll pay a ML salary if you're sent to Lehigh with an out clause).

[julio]

Now I don't want to protect Kelly et al

I will be stunned if Ty Kelly is not outrighted prior to November 20th. It would just make no sense at all to retain him on the 40-man roster; there will be two dozen guys available in the spring that have equivalent value.

[Philsmania]

Now I don't want to protect Kelly et al

I will be stunned if Ty Kelly is not outrighted prior to November 20th. It would just make no sense at all to retain him on the 40-man roster; there will be two dozen guys available in the spring that have equivalent value.

For a while, Mack really had me shaking my head with the amount that he used Kelly. But, Kelly's PT seriously diminished toward the end. He only had twenty plate appearances from August 11 onward.

[zambonir]

Kelly will be gone. Florimon can presumably be outrighted and brought back pretty easily. The question is, could Valentin?

Unless they do move Galvis or Hernandez before the draft, or are certain they'll be moving both, there's just no reason to spend any kind of asset (in this case a roster spot) on a back-up middle IF. There's always another Florimon. They could even bring back Blanco later if they wanted. He's still perfectly fine, I think, as the 5th guy/utility man, he's just no longer likely to hit.

[California_Dreamin]

I would keep Valentin, in spring training he was ahead of Kingery. I am slightly surprised at how much injured players [Therrien, Valentin] are being dismissed as 40 man roster candidates. These are very good players, who did not suffer career threatening injuries and most would have considered it foolish to leave them off the roster if not for their injuries.

Now Florimon is a different story...his injury, in my view, is career threatening and he is older and less likely to recover. He is also less likely to be claimed and would be more open to returning to the Phillies on a minor league deal. I think if either Therrien or Valentin are not protected they will be claimed...and lost.

A team claiming Therrien will understand [much like the Angels did with Turnbow] that they are basically using 1 year to keep him in the organization long term and Valentin could well make a major league roster next year and contribute as a super sub. Heck, he almost made the Phillie roster this spring in the same position.

[Philsmania]

I would keep Valentin, in spring training he was ahead of Kingery. I am slightly surprised at how much injured players [Therrien, Valentin] are being dismissed as 40 man roster candidates. These are very good players, who did not suffer career threatening injuries and most would have considered it foolish to leave them off the roster if not for their injuries.

A team claiming Therrien will understand [much like the Angels did with Turnbow] that they are basically using 1 year to keep him in the organization long term and Valentin could well make a major league roster next year and contribute as a super sub. Heck, he almost made the Phillie roster this spring in the same position.

Guys getting hurt sometimes open the door for other guys who take the opportunity and run away with it. Nothing new. Remember a guy named Wally Pipp? Or, somewhat recent Phillies memory, Bo Diaz getting hurt creating an opportunity for Ozzie Virgil who never gave the job back. Here in 2017, Valentin got hurt and Kingery blew past him

If it came down to Therrien or Valentin, I would probably go with Valentin. Relief pitching is fungible.

[allentown]

Scouting reports I've seen put Leibrants fastball at 87-90 mph this season; was touching 92 pre surgery IIRC after being 86-88 mph in college.

If he can get his velocity back, he likely can be an MLB starter. If not, it's less clear but I don't see how you let him go. At the very least he can be a Rule V LOOGY, which means he's gone in my view if not protected.

If there was no competition for 40-man spots, which is really more like 36-man roster spots since the team will likely add at least several guys from outside the org who need to be on 40-man and possibly leave an open spot for a Rule 5 draftee, then of course I'd protect Leibrant. He has value. I just don't think he has as much value/projectable future as other guys whom we should protect ahead of him. There seems nothing 'special' about him and I can't see him turning into an MLB #3/4 starter or one of the 3 late inning relievers. At best I see him as a guy in the mix to compete for #5 starter, guy at Allentown to move up in case of injury within Phillies rotation, or a guy who competes for one of the final bullpen spots. I can see him spending some time in MLB, but not being a significant contributor. I don't think he is as good as Leiter. Among the younger guys, I see more future, although iffy, in Eflin, Thompson, VV, Pivetta, Lively, Eshelman, Morgan, Pinto, Taveras, and really a host of relievers for the fill-out-the-MLB-pen role.

[Austinfan]

CD, it's not whether a player is worth keeping per se, it's whether that player is worth keeping relative to the other player you have to expose.
With Valentin, it's only for this winter, either he plays well in 2018 at Lehigh and wins a utility role or he's gone. So you lose one player this winter.

With Therrien, you not only lose the spot this winter, but there's no point doing this unless you're going to protect him next winter, BEFORE you know if he'll bounce back.
While he was a solid RP prospect before his injury, he only really had one good season, right now you can't project him as more than a 7th inning pitcher.
In December 2018, we may have to protect a number of healthy, "proven" RPs (depending on their performance next summer) over Therrien.
So you're gambling two years of 40 man roster spots that he'll bounce back AND be better than the RPs you need to protect next winter.

[flyers19rw]

J, my belief is that, with JPC and Kingery being ready for the show, that both Galvis and Cesar will be gone over the winter. They're the type of players that have some trade value and they are on the verge of becoming expensive for their performance in town. I may be wrong but I think that Cesar is are eligible this winter coming off a three-ish WAR. Freddy is close to FA status.
The question then becomes who backs them up? Andres Blanco has been good to ok at that role during his time here but has seen his better years. Florimon suffered a serious injury and isn't that young which could affect his degree of recovery.
Valentin is younger and has talent. He was on the cusp of making the team out of ST this year. He's been in our system so we know a lot about him. He looks to have worked out the issues that brought about a suspension by MLB. I'd rather use him as a back up than go the FA route or do a trade to fill that job.

[Philsmania]

Forget Therrien, doubt anyone picks him up coming off TJ surgery. And if so, we have plenty of RH RPs in the system.

Joseph - traded before the Rule 5 draft
Pullin - LF only, fielding suspect, didn't hit in AAA, on the bubble
Valentin - missed the year due to injury, on the bubble
Walding - stats inflated by Reading ballpark, on the bubble
Leibrandt - doesn't throw hard enough and is older, on the bubble
Viza - didn't show enough at Reading, on the bubble

If we need to get down to 37 to give us reasonable flexibility, I would say that it probably comes down to Valentin or Therrien and I would favor Valentin. Therrien would likely be claimed by someone (and possibly claimed by someone else after that).

And keeping Thompson is pretty much a no-brainer, in my opinion. One of the centerpieces of the Hamels trade and his line in September was actually pretty darned good (2-1, 2.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, .230 BAA in five starts). Probably his best stretch of pitching since he was a 2016 IronPig. [Sorry, just realized it was on another thread where someone raised that question]

[Philsmania]

J, my belief is that, with JPC and Kingery being ready for the show, that both Galvis and Cesar will be gone over the winter. They're the type of players that have some trade value and they are on the verge of becoming expensive for their performance in town. I may be wrong but I think that Cesar is are eligible this winter coming off a three-ish WAR. Freddy is close to FA status.
The question then becomes who backs them up? Andres Blanco has been good to ok at that role during his time here but has seen his better years. Florimon suffered a serious injury and isn't that young which could affect his degree of recovery.
Valentin is younger and has talent. He was on the cusp of making the team out of ST this year. He's been in our system so we know a lot about him. He looks to have worked out the issues that brought about a suspension by MLB. I'd rather use him as a back up than go the FA route or do a trade to fill that job.

Keep Valentin and bring a veteran into Clearwater to compete for a job. There are always a couple of those guys down there.

[zambonir]

Matt Gelb (this presumes not many pre-Rule V trades, I guess):

Tocci is a bubble guy. My guess is he is left unprotected and is selected by someone.

The adds:

RHP Franklyn Kilome
RHP Seranthony Dominguez
LHP Ranger Suarez

That could be it.

Phillies chat replay: Matt Gelb talks free agency, manager's job and more

[andyb]

I guess Suarez is left-handed and reasonably polished. I just don't see him as likely to stick with someone - or even if he did whether it would be a great loss. Yes he is up to the low 90s with his fastball, but that just puts him in the average category.

The way this shakes out we may not have difficult 40-man decisions. Assume at the least that Kelly, Florimon, Perkins, Alvarez, Joseph, and an infielder (Galvis/Hernandez) are gone. You are already down to 37 before you start even thinking about Therrien, Valentin, Siegrist, Rupp, and others. Now of course they could trade people for other players that need to be protected, but if I had to guess we might be thinking of selecting a player in the rule 5 draft this year.

[julio]

J, my belief is that, with JPC and Kingery being ready for the show, that both Galvis and Cesar will be gone over the winter. They're the type of players that have some trade value and they are on the verge of becoming expensive for their performance in town. I may be wrong but I think that Cesar is are eligible this winter coming off a three-ish WAR. Freddy is close to FA status.

Not sure they see Kingery as "ready for the show." He's had a half-season in AAA; my instinct is that he'll open 2018 in AAA, and be a possible mid-season call-up... so I'm not so sure that Cesar goes away this winter. Well, unless somebody makes a really good offer.

[Austinfan]

I doubt they take anyone in the Rule 5 draft unless they really, really like them, because they have one of the deeper farm systems, the odds that a Rule 5 player will be better than the player they'd have to expose is going to be unlikely.
Since they'd have to sacrifice both a 40 man and 25 man roster spot to take a Rule 5 player, there's a significant opportunity cost.

The other problem is they have to have the roster together by November 20th, but many trades don't occur until the winter meetings in late December, even if the Phillies want to make an early move, doesn't mean they can find a dancing partner.