Winter 2017-18 40 Man Roster / Rule 5 Draft

[zambonir]

The Phillies acquired Neshek and Kendrick before the Rule V last year, one would think Joseph and Rupp can be moved in similar deals. Galvis probably has to wait, if you want better value.

Of course Galvis could also play 2B (and 3B) if they trade Cesar instead. Until Kingery comes up. But I would think Galvis gets you more in the off-season than at the deadline.Cesar, who knows? Apparently not a ton of teams looking for a 2B anyway so maybe July will be a better option, that also happens to suit their timetable for Kingery.

[andyb]

They have the 3rd selection. They don't really have serious 40-man roster problems this year as the marginal protect guys are unlikely to be selected.

Why wouldn't they take someone in that situation? Or at least think about it. One of the advantages of a mediocre record is picking near the top. There are still some weak areas on the team like the bullpen that could be addressed inexpensively this way.

[Philsmania]

I doubt they take anyone in the Rule 5 draft unless they really, really like them, because they have one of the deeper farm systems, the odds that a Rule 5 player will be better than the player they'd have to expose is going to be unlikely.
Since they'd have to sacrifice both a 40 man and 25 man roster spot to take a Rule 5 player, there's a significant opportunity cost.

The other problem is they have to have the roster together by November 20th, but many trades don't occur until the winter meetings in late December, even if the Phillies want to make an early move, doesn't mean they can find a dancing partner.

Personally, I would agree that the Phillies are probably not in the ideal position to make a Rule 5 selection this year. Teams in the ideal position, in my opinion, are either teams that are in the tank mode and don't have anything to lose by burning a roster spot or a deep, top-notch ML team that can actually spare a roster spot. I suspect a team like the Phillies will need to utilize every roster spot in 2018 as the team makes the transition from rebuilding to "competitive". And yes, what's the realistic likelihood that someone else's "not protected" will be better than someone we chose not to protect?

One counterpoint, AF, the GM meetings in November are also a frequent launching point for trades. See the Phillies getting Lidge in 11/2007 and, I presume, Klentak orchestrating the pre-winter meeting trades for Kendrick and Neshek. I remember the old days when it seemed as though the winter meetings were a tradefest. In recent decades, however, the meetings have become more of a free agent meat market where agents, not GM's, are usually the busiest people.

[Squire]

By the way, Walding had earned his 6 years of minor league service and thus was a Minor League Free Agent. However, the Phillies just resigned him

[Philsmania]

1 Knapp
2 Rupp
3 Joseph--Trade
4 C. Hernandez
5 Galvis
6 Franco
7 Altherr
8 Williams
9 Herrera
10 Pivetta
11 Seranthony Dominguez
12 Nola
13 Lively
14 Leiter
15 Neris
16 Luis Garcia
17 Pinto
18 Milner
19 Morgan
20 Eickoff
22 Velasquez
23 Elneiry Garcia
24 Alfaro
25 Pullin--Don't protect
26 Hoskins
27 Jesmuel valentin
28 Crawford
29 Quinn
30 Cozens
31 Eflin
32 Ramos
33 Therrien
34 Walding--Don't protect
35 Tocci
36 Leibrant--Don't protect
37 Arano
38 Kilome
39 Viza--Don't protect
40 Ranger Suarez
41 Y. Rios
42 Thompson
43 McKenzie Mills--Don't protect

The bolded moves get us down to 37, room to add three over the winter. Therrien would remain through the Rule 5 but would be the first player DFA'd if the need arises for a roster spot.

And NYC, I notice that you don't mention Tirado anywhere. Is he dropped from the 40 man or was he an oversight?

[andyb]

By the way, Walding had earned his 6 years of minor league service and thus was a Minor League Free Agent. However, the Phillies just resigned him

That is good news. He does not need to be protected, but the power this season coupled with the decent defense does give him a path to the majors even if only as a backup. He'll need to cut the strikeouts a bit when not in such a home run dominant environment like Reading, but I would say it is 50-50 he'll see some time in Philly next season. His age 24 season was better than Cameron Perkins at Reading for instance, and he has more defensive value. I keep him at 3B for now, but he could be a 4-corner utility guy down the road (3B, 1B, LF, RF). A Cody Asche with better defense and more power (though more strikeouts of course).

[California_Dreamin]

In regards to Walding, lets put it this way...I sincerely doubt he would have returned to the Phillies if they didn't paint a picture that included their plans to soon be in Philadelphia, and on the 40 man roster.

I think he should be anyhow but I think this definitely firms things up. One of the things that certainly advocates for the advancement of the organization is the limited interest we now have in players like Walding. I remember both the day he was drafted and the day he signed, we were literally dancing the Macarena at our good fortune and dreamed of the day he might become a 30 home run hitter at Reading.

Now he is and many don't even feel he deserves a place on the 40 man roster. I agree with andyb, Walding plays a position of need [possibly?] and still has the quick hands, powerful arm and tantalizing power stroke. I think he starts the 2018 season in LHV and with a decent start, has a chance to be in Philadelphia by summer.

One more reason to believe this...the Phils have a decision coming at the end of 2018, do they spend up to $300 million dollars on a hot corner hot shot like Machado and if either Franco or Walding could somehow grab the position definitively it would allow the Phils to spend their resources elsewhere.

I would love to have Machado but but also love to be in a position where the Phils felt they didn't need to also.

[nycphils]

And NYC, I notice that you don't mention Tirado anywhere. Is he dropped from the 40 man or was he an oversight?

Apparently I blew it on Mills and he doesn't need to be protected.

Tirade I can't see them protecting again. Just hasn't been good enough to imagine someone putting him in the bigs even throwing 100 mph b/c he doesn't know where it's going. And if he is picked, not a big loss.

[Philsmania]

And NYC, I notice that you don't mention Tirado anywhere. Is he dropped from the 40 man or was he an oversight?

Apparently I blew it on Mills and he doesn't need to be protected.

Tirade I can't see them protecting again. Just hasn't been good enough to imagine someone putting him in the bigs even throwing 100 mph b/c he doesn't know where it's going. And if he is picked, not a big loss.

I believe that as is the case with Therrien, they would have to DFA him before he ended up exposed to the Rule 5. I suspect someone would be enticed enough by his 100 mph fastball to pick him up on waivers. The Tigers have only just begun their teardown and, by some accounts, have a bottom third farm system so Detroit ought to have plenty of opportunities to add people to the forty man. It would not surprise me to see both Tirado and Appel in Lakeland next spring.

[nycphils]

Would make sense for them or the Royals, etc. Not much to be done about it in my view - neither are worthy of a 40 man spot.

[Austinfan]

Not sure about Tirado, they started him half the season which is what they like to do with top RP prospects in the lower minors to get them additional innings to work on their secondary stuff. So he may still be in their plans.

[tom81]

Possible deletions:

Non-Tenders: Siegrist.

but if I had to guess we might be thinking of selecting a player in the rule 5 draft this year.

Kevin Siegrist pitched fairly well for the Phillies in his brief time here. He is a 28 year old left hander that has had several good seasons for St. Louis. I really think he has a good shot at staying on the 40 man. The MacPhail stories make it seem more likely to me that he stays as we are supposedly looking to trade Minor League talent to improve the MLB team. I don't think they look to spend a 40 man spot on a rule 5 crapshoot at the expense of young vets with control left that have had MLB success.

[zambonir]

Certainly they wouldn't have acquired him if it wasn't a possibliity. Hard to really say he showed or didn't show anything in just five innings, but do you need him at $3 million when you also have Morgan and Milner? Not that the money is an issue. But he still has health questions too.

[andyb]

I might be interested in keeping Siegrist though I think it might depend on the medical evaluation which we don't know much about. His velocity and command was off a bit this year. The version of him a couple of years ago would clearly be worth keeping. Just not sure what we have.

Morgan was definitely better this year though still carries some severe splits. He certainly is a LOOGY worth keeping at the least and could be more. Milner is more smoke and mirrors to me. I just don't think his stuff plays long term and he got pretty lucky this year. I am channeling Matt Winkelman's article here:

Crashburn Alley – Hoby Milner and the Worst 20 Game Scoreless Streak Of the...

[Philsmania]

If possible, try to bring Siegrest back after the Rule 5 draft.

[zambonir]

Phillies (Phillies)

[andyb]

I guess that answers the Siegrest question for now. And Hoby is likely safe in the short term.

[julio]

Here's a list of players in the organization who appear to be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next month (obviously, pending assignment to the 40-man roster, or outrights off the roster, and recognizing that I may have missed somebody!):

Pitchers
Arauz, Harold
Armas, Gustavo
Brown, Aaron
Cabrera, Ismael
Carrasco, Luis
Casimiro, Ranfi
Davis, Austin
DeNato, Joey
Dominguez, Seranthony
Kilome, Franklyn
Leibrandt, Brandon
Mateo, Gregorix
Melendez, Orestes
Murray, Colton
Nunez, Anderson
Nunez, Miguel
Paulino, Felix
Rivero, Alexis
Salazar, Carlos
Suarez, Ranger
Taveras, Jose
Viza, Tyler
Watson, Shane
Windle, Tom

Catchers
Garcia, Wilson
Grullon, Deivi
Moore, Logan
Numata, Chace
Rivero, Gregori

Infielders
Antequera, Jose
Campbell, Derek
Canelo, Malquin
Cumana, Grenny
Gomez, Jose
Green, Zach
Hernandez, Jan
Marrero, Emmanuel
Martinez, Harold
Mora, Angelo
Stankiewicz, Drew
Stassi, Brock
Tomscha, Damek
Walding, Mitch

Outfielders
Duran, Carlos
Pujols, Jose
Pullin, Andrew
Rodriguez, Herlis
Sandberg, Cord
Tocci, Carlos
Tromp, Jiandido

[Squire]

I have it in my head we have to protect that guy we got from the cardinals for Juan Nicasio. Elizier Alvarez 2B

[Squire]

Anyway....of that group....

My definites are

RHP Franklyn Kilome
RHP Seranthony Dominguez
OF Carlos Tocci
INF Jose Gomez
LHP Ranger Suarez

My probables are

INF Mitch Walding
LHP Austin Davis

My maybes are

C Deivi Gruillon
RHP Jose Tavares
INF Elizier Alvarez
OF Jiandido Tromp