Winter 2017-18 40 Man Roster / Rule 5 Draft

[allentown]

I like your list of whom to protect, although unsure of Walding. A ton of walks does turn a low BA into a quite acceptable OBP and his power is improving, although you have to discount Reading numbers a bit. It seem he's been around forever, but he really isn't super old, although old for a H.S. draftee having his first good AA season with the bat. The OPS is good, but not at all outstanding for Reading. I guess our dire need at 3B makes him worth another season.

[julio]

I have it in my head we have to protect that guy we got from the cardinals for Juan Nicasio. Elizier Alvarez 2B

Alvarez is already on the 40-man roster.

[andyb]

My definites would be Kilome, Domingues, and Tocci. That could be it. Neither Gomez nor Suarez is good enough or close enough to be claimed IMO. Suarez does not have the top prospect pedigree and is only at A ball so far. Gomez is a tweener. Most likely to be a utility IF who are not that valuable. Walding has too many holes in the game to put on the roster now. Davis I might actually think about before the others since he is closer to major league ready.

[zambonir]

One thing you have to figure they'll be keeping a close eye on are players the Dodgers cut loose, as well as their Rule V availables.

[Austinfan]

My definites are

RHP Franklyn Kilome
OF Carlos Tocci - made a big jump, still has to improve his OBP to have a shot at starting in the Show, will never hit for even gap power
RHP Seranthony Dominguez - serious injury questions, though he could be claimed and stuck in a bullpen

My probables are
LHP Ranger Suarez - A ball pitchers who aren't fireballers rarely get claimed
LHP Austin Davis - has a ML arm and is a lefty
C Deivi Gruillon - ML quality defense and young enough to learn to hit
RHP Jose Tavares - limited upside but close to ML ready
OF Jiandido Tromp - has really developed, corner OF who has nice power

My maybes are
INF Jose Gomez - his upside is utility infielder, similar to Valentin, doubt he has the offense to hold down 3B, A ball so unlikely claim
C INF Mitch Walding - his away stats suggest a Reading rebound
INF Elizier Alvarez - no chance anyone takes him, mediocre year in AA, nothing special here

[andyb]

INF Elizier Alvarez - no chance anyone takes him, mediocre year in AA, nothing special here

As noted, already on the 40-man so you probably lose him if you take him off. You also forget that he did a double jump. In that light his performance was not bad. His age 22 AA season was about as good as Valentin a couple of years ago and clearly better than Canelo even with the double jump. He might be our best high minors middle infielder after Kingery. No reason to keep him off the 40-man at this point. Most of your probables and none of your maybes other than Alvarez would get selected.

[California_Dreamin]

You simply do not let guys like Alvarez or Gomez get away, otherwise the entire "sign veterans to trade them for young prospects at the deadline" philosophy goes out the window. Not to mention that both of them are intriguing prospects with good hit tools.

Look, I understand that the 40 man roster decision is often a crapshoot, I get it. But I also believe that if you are going to talk the talk, you had better walk the walk. Both Gomez and Alvarez were acquired for relief pitchers that the Phils specifically said they were acquiring to move for young talent. And they were successful in doing it.

Now they have to insure that they don't allow that young talent to blossom elsewhere.

[zambonir]

Leaving guys unprotected and not losing them (whether because they don't get taken or don't stick) is, well, not losing them. Every year there are always two or three guys people freak out about who don't go anywhere. Successfully identifying which players will make it through is just as important as knowing which players won't, and which players you don't care about.

[California_Dreamin]

Has nothing to do with freaking out on my part, I fully expect to lost 1-2 guys simply because the Phils are now in that enviable position of having so many draft eligible players. But like SF said yesterday, its better to have an organizational philosophy and have the players match it than the other way around and for the past couple of year the team has emphasized signing free agents to trade and acquire future talent.

They did this and got both Gomez and Alvarez, two youngsters who fit the profile perfectly of guys they were hoping to get for the two relief pitchers they moved.

Seems awfully short sighted to go to all that effort to watch either of those youngsters gobbled up by another team and I believe this would happen, especially with Alvarez.

[Austinfan]

Sunk costs. You keep the best 40 irrespective of what you paid for them.
You expose those who you think either have no value or a low probability of being claimed.

[zambonir]

It's entirely possible this front office will protect two players they acquired, recently, over two players they didn't. It's just as possible their expectation for those acquisitions were no higher than, "let's look at them for a month or two and see if they are worth developing." And there's plenty of middle ground (i.e. neither protecting them nor losing them) in between.

The fact that they kept Asche last year and then non-tendered him days later shows you the process is not nearly as intense as we might think it is. Ditto the year before when Klentak claimed two relievers before the Rule V and got rid of both of them before January. All of which is to say that if they don't release or trade Joseph before the Rule V than they aren't losing any sleep over who they might lose in the Rule V.

[andyb]

Once again on Alvarez, he is on the 40-man roster. It is a virtual guarantee he is lost if waived. And given the uncertainty about Valentin I am pretty sure the team wants to hold onto him.

Jose Gomez is a completely different story. He has barely played High A ball. He will only be 21 next season. He would not be selected in the rule 5 draft if left unprotected. His ceiling is not high enough to justify selecting someone that far away.

[zambonir]

Fair enough, if they don't keep Alvarez on the 40 they lose him. I still don't think it's a guarantee. I mean, consider the circumstances of that trade, the Cardinals were acquiring someone they could only have for three weeks who couldn't appear in the playoffs, it doesn't seem at all far-fetched to me that the Phillies understood they were acquiring an asset that they may or may not value long-term. Obviously guys get removed from the 40 all the time as part of this process.

I do think they are going to go into the draft at 38. Or 39 but they'll have added 1-2 players before the Rule V rosters are set (though maybe they'll delete 1-2 as well).

[Austinfan]

Unless the perfect player falls, I doubt the Phillies have any intention of claiming a Rule 5 player, for one thing, they have so much farm system depth they'll be reluctant to commit a roster spot to a marginal prospect (think Goeddel) instead of putting a veteran there who can be flipped or waived when someone like Kingery is ready to be promoted.
And if they reserve a spot to take a player, he has to be better than the player they exposed to make it worthwhile.

[zambonir]

I agree there aren't a lot of places for the Phillies to put a Rule V player, they don't really need a 5th OF or utility IF in that way, and taking a pitcher always seems to be problematic (you either get an overmatched reliever or a starter you are hiding/not developing as a reliever).

But I just have a hunch. This is really the first Rule V draft where Klentak will be bringing his full scouting apparatus to the table, and he just hired a manager who was in charge of another team's entire minor league system. I'd be disappointed if they didn't unearth one "find," whether it is Rule V or at any stage in the roster-setting. They will certainly pick someone (and leave the roster spot open in order to do so); whether that player actually sticks, who knows.

And if they could find a utility guy (instead of counting of Jes Valentin or re-signing Florimon) or a LHB who can play a little 3B there's room on the bench.

[andyb]

I just go by the theory that they should leave no stone unturned to find talent. So if we can draft a player why shouldn't we take a look at him in Spring Training. We are in little danger of losing our own prospects from the protection list and if we do it would be losing third tier prospects. At the end of Spring Training we could always return the player and then use the roster spot for some non-roster player who wins a job.

[Squire]

Pedro Florimon and Jesen Therrien just got outrighted off the 40 man roster.

[nycphils]

I'd expect Florimon to resign on a minor league deal with a spring invite, and I'd expect a good chance of losing Therrien. If you were the Tigers, for example, why not grab him, DL him all next year and then invite him to spring training to decide if you want to carry him for 90 days in 2019 for free talent?

[zambonir]

Therrien is already lost, for all intents and purposes, but is there any reason why the Phillies couldn't re-sign him just as easily as any other team?

[nycphils]

Maybe I misunderstood...is he waived and is a FA, or (as I thought) outrighted off the 40 man but still property of the Phils until the Rule V draft at least?