I'm not sure a 30 year old RH bad fielding OF who has an unsustainable BABIP of .378 is the best bet for a rebuilding team.
We've already have 3 RH power bats in the middle of our lineup (Franco, Joseph, Rupp), we need a LH to balance them.
I disagree.
1. JD Martinez was born Aug 21, 1987 and will be 29 most of the year.
2. He is a bad fielder so hide him in LF and let Herrera cover more ground from CFand let Quinn/Altherr play RF..
3. His BABIP in the last 3 years has been .389/.339/.378 so .378 is not out of the question while a little lower would be possible.
4. He hits RHP very well, OPSs vs RHP of .880/.870/.925 in is last three years.
5. He is possibly only a short term rental obtained from a team that is trying to cut salary. This implies you might be able to get him for a reasonable price.
6. He improves the team in the short term and can be flipped at the deadline, offered a long term contract if he fits in, or presented a QA next offseason giving you either an extra year of him or some draft picks.
I think he fits in really well for a rebuilding team that will have two LH OFs in their AAA team next year with one or both potentially ready for a midseason call up. I certainly don't want us to go after a mediocre OF with a long term contract just because he hits left handed.
9 days later
One player that I'd like to see the Phillies inquire about is Robbie Grossman. He was actually released by the Indians last season, but once he got claimed by the Twins, he went on to have a solid season. He's only 27, a switch hitter, plays all 3 outfield positions and can't qualify for Free Agency until 2021(also like that he has the ability to take a walk), so he could be a really solid pick-up, if last season wasn't a fluke. I'd much rather take a chance on him than Michael Saunders(for the right price in trade).
I might do that - but based on Crasnick's tweet, and the fact that nobody has yet satisfied the Tigers, I'm not so sure that the Tigers would do that.
The Tigers can either afford to hang on to him until the trade deadline or they can't, but I still wouldn't give up anyone of note (including Altherr, but also Quinn, Hernandez, Williams, various pitchers) for a one-year rental unless more was coming back with him. Some contenders may also be happy to see if he ends up on a team (the Phillies included) who might flip him. Because "young controllable talent' implies current major leaguers. So sure, if the Phillies were trying to win this year and wanted to upgrade the OF by trading Altherr or Hernandez plus someone else, that would be a good deal if they thought it made the team better (questionable but not impossible wrt Hernandez). But it's not a good deal to improve a team that still might not finish over .500.
Martinez may not technically be "just a 1 year" rental though. We would get the opportunity for trade him, exclusively negotiate with him on a n extension, or give him a QO thereby either getting a second year or some extra draft pics,
Negotiating an extension is certainly worth considering but I wouldn't trade for him in hopes of that, and I don't think either party would be prepared to do one as a condition of the trade. As for the QO, would you trade Cesar Hernandez and Nick Williams straight-up for Hernandez and the 35th pick in the draft? I mean, I might, if I was trying to win this year (which I know is where you're coming from). But for me, if I'm trading Hernandez, Williams or Quinn it has to be for assets which are guaranteed to help for several seasons.
Exactly! We are not in a position to trade tomorrow assets to help today. If we wanted to help both today and tomorrow, we would have signed either a youngish, non-comp FA or a Cuban. It makes no sense to me to trade value for an asset which will be wasted and done before 2019, if we aren't going to contend to 2019. I expect 2017 to be a recovery year for Altherr -- wrists just don't recover very fast -- but for him to be helping us in 2019. Hernandez could still be our starting 2B in 2019 or, more likely, traded for somebody who can help in 2019 or beyond. If TPTB are going to give up on 2017, and they clearly have done exactly that, then it is counter-productive to strip future assets to try to 'pretty up' 2017, which is just one step less impractical than spending assets to gild a turd. If we are just going to stink and wait for our minor leaguers to mature, then let's really stink and get a better draft pick.
There are reasons I'd consider moving Altherr for value - maybe even for short-term value. Those reasons are Quinn, Williams, Cozens. If you really expect Altherr to be important in 2019, you're saying you don't expect more than one of those three to be relevant?
Can't get by with 3 OFs. The 3 you list are also all quite risky/iffy for one reason or another from injuries, to an awful second half of 2016, to can't hit lefties and likely will need to platoon.
I agree with your reasoning on not trading Hernandez, Williams or Quinn for Martinez because of the expected value in the out years from them exceeding what you expect for Martinez in the short term. I certainly would like to win this year but I'm certainly not counting on it but I also think it important to try to put a winning team on the field. Altherr on the other hand is not someone I'm expecting to be more than a 4th OF in 2018 and beyond and at best our 3rd CF'er. I expect our 3 starting OF'ers in 2018 to be 3 from the following, Herrera, Williams, Quinn & Cozens. Where does Altherr fit in? Detroit on the other hand is trying to reduce payroll and find a CF'er since they traded Maybin. They know it will be easier to find a corner OF'er in this environment than a CF'er and might over pay for Alther since he can play CF. Altherr might fit their needs, a young controllable player who can play CF.
I think I'd rather keep stockpiling in hopes of trading the excess OFs and a C for pitching. Assuming there's actually an excess.
For now, the only way you can find out what you have in Altherr, or increase his value (which is barely better than a AAA player's value now, at best he's damaged goods, at worst, he's a bad hitter, either way he hasn't played enough) is to play him. They'll pick up another LHB to round out the OF. To me the Martinez rumor was only connected to the notion that the Phillies were gonna trade Hernandez, because then you still need an OF with Kendrick at 2B.
Ideal scenario is still that Willams can't be stopped from taking one of those jobs by late July, and that, if Altherr isn't great, Quinn is ready and healthy.
I think that you guys are on target when it comes to JD Martinez - the Tigers want youthful talent in return; not just salary relief plus a couple of lottery picks. Bad trade fit for the Phils right now...the only way that I can see giving up more is if the brain trust just loves him and as a part of the deal they can extend JD (which isn't happening). Besides, they value outfield defense and in that category he is somewhat tragic.
I do not agree with their philosophy of needing to leave so darned much room for the outfield prospects...right now we have an actual major league starter in Odubel, and then who knows? Howie K. is miscast as a LF bat and is a ute at best or a stopgap 2B if Cesar is traded. Altherr is a shaky maybe with nice upside; Nick Williams needs more time; Quinn has never ever been healthy and Cozens needs more time and development as well.
Not adding a real outfielder LAST offseason was tragically short-sighted...not doing it again this year simply compounds the error. Each season is meaningful; throwing garbage out there and not spending money or committing for more than a year to a quality player that will boost a rather woebegone lineup is a mistake that insults the fan base.
Prospects should earn their way in, not have a large market team take a few years off so the prospects have a nice little glide path in the uncertain event that they actually develop. Prospects are always question marks...the vast majority never make a real impact in the majors. Adding one professional hitter to a corner outfield position should have happened, and the worst case scenario is having too much talent and needing to trade from depth if the prospects actually do what we all hope that they will do as time marches on.
Olney has a column out today [ESPN Insider] about how the Orioles should think about moving Machado for prospects this summer and I am quite sure that in one of the Phillie beat writers columns a few months ago he listed Machado as the Phils 3rd baseman of the future [with Franco moving to first].
Some on this site speculated at the time that the writer might have some inside info since McPhail had once worked for the O's and IIRC was with the Orioles when Machado was originally signed.
The article indicates that Machado is eventually going to cost a boatload of money [ a Stanton like contract] and that it makes sense for the Orioles to move him this summer and in fact an O's executive even somewhat mentioned the same thing.
Wonder what it would cost in prospects and wonder if the Phils might be interested? Thoughts?
I would hope the Phillies would be interested. If Machado is available, due diligence to determine what it would take to make a trade has to be taken by the Phils. That said, the price might be too high. Still, as we all know deep inside, prospects are just that, prospects.
I think we're probably a year or two away from that kind of deal.
Look at the Rangers when they traded for Hamels, their farm system was loaded at the upper levels, so they could trade the 2nd best prospect at a couple of positions and throw in some pitchers who they didn't project in their top five. That's the kind of depth you need to make those big player deals, where you're trading surplus, not potential starters.
Right now we both lack that kind of depth and most of our top prospects are either too far away or too uncertain to garner a top player without putting together the type of package that would strip our farm system.