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zambonir
Dec '16

Negotiating an extension is certainly worth considering but I wouldn't trade for him in hopes of that, and I don't think either party would be prepared to do one as a condition of the trade. As for the QO, would you trade Cesar Hernandez and Nick Williams straight-up for Hernandez and the 35th pick in the draft? I mean, I might, if I was trying to win this year (which I know is where you're coming from). But for me, if I'm trading Hernandez, Williams or Quinn it has to be for assets which are guaranteed to help for several seasons.

allentown
Dec '16

Exactly! We are not in a position to trade tomorrow assets to help today. If we wanted to help both today and tomorrow, we would have signed either a youngish, non-comp FA or a Cuban. It makes no sense to me to trade value for an asset which will be wasted and done before 2019, if we aren't going to contend to 2019. I expect 2017 to be a recovery year for Altherr -- wrists just don't recover very fast -- but for him to be helping us in 2019. Hernandez could still be our starting 2B in 2019 or, more likely, traded for somebody who can help in 2019 or beyond. If TPTB are going to give up on 2017, and they clearly have done exactly that, then it is counter-productive to strip future assets to try to 'pretty up' 2017, which is just one step less impractical than spending assets to gild a turd. If we are just going to stink and wait for our minor leaguers to mature, then let's really stink and get a better draft pick.

julio
Dec '16

There are reasons I'd consider moving Altherr for value - maybe even for short-term value. Those reasons are Quinn, Williams, Cozens. If you really expect Altherr to be important in 2019, you're saying you don't expect more than one of those three to be relevant?

allentown
Dec '16

Can't get by with 3 OFs. The 3 you list are also all quite risky/iffy for one reason or another from injuries, to an awful second half of 2016, to can't hit lefties and likely will need to platoon.

tom81
Dec '16
zambonir

I agree with your reasoning on not trading Hernandez, Williams or Quinn for Martinez because of the expected value in the out years from them exceeding what you expect for Martinez in the short term. I certainly would like to win this year but I'm certainly not counting on it but I also think it important to try to put a winning team on the field. Altherr on the other hand is not someone I'm expecting to be more than a 4th OF in 2018 and beyond and at best our 3rd CF'er. I expect our 3 starting OF'ers in 2018 to be 3 from the following, Herrera, Williams, Quinn & Cozens. Where does Altherr fit in? Detroit on the other hand is trying to reduce payroll and find a CF'er since they traded Maybin. They know it will be easier to find a corner OF'er in this environment than a CF'er and might over pay for Alther since he can play CF. Altherr might fit their needs, a young controllable player who can play CF.

zambonir
Dec '16

I think I'd rather keep stockpiling in hopes of trading the excess OFs and a C for pitching. Assuming there's actually an excess.

For now, the only way you can find out what you have in Altherr, or increase his value (which is barely better than a AAA player's value now, at best he's damaged goods, at worst, he's a bad hitter, either way he hasn't played enough) is to play him. They'll pick up another LHB to round out the OF. To me the Martinez rumor was only connected to the notion that the Phillies were gonna trade Hernandez, because then you still need an OF with Kendrick at 2B.

Ideal scenario is still that Willams can't be stopped from taking one of those jobs by late July, and that, if Altherr isn't great, Quinn is ready and healthy.

Carver
Dec '16

I think that you guys are on target when it comes to JD Martinez - the Tigers want youthful talent in return; not just salary relief plus a couple of lottery picks. Bad trade fit for the Phils right now...the only way that I can see giving up more is if the brain trust just loves him and as a part of the deal they can extend JD (which isn't happening). Besides, they value outfield defense and in that category he is somewhat tragic.

I do not agree with their philosophy of needing to leave so darned much room for the outfield prospects...right now we have an actual major league starter in Odubel, and then who knows? Howie K. is miscast as a LF bat and is a ute at best or a stopgap 2B if Cesar is traded. Altherr is a shaky maybe with nice upside; Nick Williams needs more time; Quinn has never ever been healthy and Cozens needs more time and development as well.

Not adding a real outfielder LAST offseason was tragically short-sighted...not doing it again this year simply compounds the error. Each season is meaningful; throwing garbage out there and not spending money or committing for more than a year to a quality player that will boost a rather woebegone lineup is a mistake that insults the fan base.

Prospects should earn their way in, not have a large market team take a few years off so the prospects have a nice little glide path in the uncertain event that they actually develop. Prospects are always question marks...the vast majority never make a real impact in the majors. Adding one professional hitter to a corner outfield position should have happened, and the worst case scenario is having too much talent and needing to trade from depth if the prospects actually do what we all hope that they will do as time marches on.

Austinfan
Dec '16
julio

None of Quinn, Williams and Cozens are a sure thing right now, and even if Quinn blossoms, you need a solid 4th OF given his injury record.

California_Dreamin
Dec '16

Olney has a column out today [ESPN Insider] about how the Orioles should think about moving Machado for prospects this summer and I am quite sure that in one of the Phillie beat writers columns a few months ago he listed Machado as the Phils 3rd baseman of the future [with Franco moving to first].

Some on this site speculated at the time that the writer might have some inside info since McPhail had once worked for the O's and IIRC was with the Orioles when Machado was originally signed.

The article indicates that Machado is eventually going to cost a boatload of money [ a Stanton like contract] and that it makes sense for the Orioles to move him this summer and in fact an O's executive even somewhat mentioned the same thing.

Wonder what it would cost in prospects and wonder if the Phils might be interested? Thoughts?

LoneStarPhan
Dec '16

I would hope the Phillies would be interested. If Machado is available, due diligence to determine what it would take to make a trade has to be taken by the Phils. That said, the price might be too high. Still, as we all know deep inside, prospects are just that, prospects.

allentown
Dec '16

Add to that: we have a ton of mid-range prospects, but we need stars.

Austinfan
Dec '16

I think we're probably a year or two away from that kind of deal.

Look at the Rangers when they traded for Hamels, their farm system was loaded at the upper levels, so they could trade the 2nd best prospect at a couple of positions and throw in some pitchers who they didn't project in their top five. That's the kind of depth you need to make those big player deals, where you're trading surplus, not potential starters.

Right now we both lack that kind of depth and most of our top prospects are either too far away or too uncertain to garner a top player without putting together the type of package that would strip our farm system.

andyb
Dec '16

Probably would cost more in prospects than we would be interested in. Maybe next year the price comes down with one less year of control and a $20 million arbitration award.

FWIW the one guy we probably definitely put in the deal is Franco if they wanted inexpensive major league ready players. They would probably want Crawford and Alfaro to start with though in addition to Franco. And then add one of Kilome or Sanchez.

kmc1019
Dec '16

I think an unfortunate truth for the Phillies and other big market clubs is that it makes way more sense for a team to trade a star than to let them hit the open market in free agency. It sure would be nice for the Phillies to write a check and give up a draft pick for Machado or Harper, but it is highly unlikely they will ever have a chance to do so and will instead have to give up 3 of their top 5 prospects and/or high ceiling talent already in the big leagues in order to land these players. All the more reason why scouting and drafting and willingness to spend in international markets are so essential.

fish
Dec '16

I think Machado and Harper are going to be in a very unique situation to hit free agency as super young stars- unless they sign with their current clubs, I think it's extremely likely they will look to test the market even if they get traded. I don't know that it makes sense for any club to sell the farm just to then have to shell out a massive salary allocation.

Carver
Dec '16

Agreed...the only way that a team should give up that much is if they have the negotiating window, and why would either one of those huge stars give up the chance under these conditions?

phillychuck
Dec '16

Trout might give us a negotiating window since he's from around here and has hinted that he'd love to play here.

Carver
Dec '16

Agreed with Trout, PhillyChuck...have said elsewhere that the only way that I can see him getting here via any form of relatively sane trade is if he tells the Angels that he wants out at some point, and that he really wants to come here.

Otherwise, as a few of you have pointed out, you need to have more system depth and especially more high end players than they currently own to make sense of that type of trade scenario. And I would never recommend giving up the bulk of the farm for someone that is only controlled for a year and a half anyway.

bigegypt0417
Dec '16
1

We have players with high ceilings and a lot of B/C prospects. I look at a team like the Giants and they've basically been successful while only hitting on a few stars. they have been very successful building teams of solid major leaguers...