So I am trying to construct an imaginary trade around RHP Hector Neris to the Cubs for OF Jorge Soler. Neris cheaply replaces Chapman and allows the Cubs to focus on resigning Fowler which makes Soler (who I believe has fallen out of favor) expendable. Who has to add what to make this deal happen?
I don't think Neris is seen by MLB as anything more than a fungible reliever. I think we'd have to add another decent, AA-or-higher reliever to give the Cubs another option for the bullpen. Maybe the oft-mentioned Tirado, but that might be too much.
Agree there is some skepticism on Neris and the league did figure out his split a bit and are laying off it more. I am not sure the Cubs would see Neris as a closer, but he is the type of low cost arm they could look for now that the salary cap will be harder. They do not want to spend $15 million a year, especially when they are rumored to be the most likely destination for Otani. They probably want to be in the range of the luxury tax line in most years. Going over to add a piece in the second half of the season but not wanting to spend $75 million on a closer when their own players will get expensive in a few years.
I don't see Neris as a "fungible reliever," rather as a high ceiling/low floor gamble, he has velocity and the splitter, he needs to locate the splitter more consistently to set up his fastball and any third pitch he develops. But his splitter is a plus plus pitch.
Neris could definitely be a closer, or just end up as a "Garcia" type who looks great one game and a pinata the next.
Gomez is a "fungible reliever."
Neri throws a hard fastball, but it's straight and hittable. His fastball hasn't been an above average pitch in the majors in his first three years despite its velocity according to fangraphs.
I think they have one trade to do, after shoring up the bullpen they still need a of bat to hit in he middle of the order. I think JD Martinez for Cesar Hernandez makes sense if the Tigers can trade Kinsler first. Kendrick goes to 2b and the young guys play LF.
I'm not sure a 30 year old RH bad fielding OF who has an unsustainable BABIP of .378 is the best bet for a rebuilding team.
We've already have 3 RH power bats in the middle of our lineup (Franco, Joseph, Rupp), we need a LH to balance them.
I disagree.
1. JD Martinez was born Aug 21, 1987 and will be 29 most of the year.
2. He is a bad fielder so hide him in LF and let Herrera cover more ground from CFand let Quinn/Altherr play RF..
3. His BABIP in the last 3 years has been .389/.339/.378 so .378 is not out of the question while a little lower would be possible.
4. He hits RHP very well, OPSs vs RHP of .880/.870/.925 in is last three years.
5. He is possibly only a short term rental obtained from a team that is trying to cut salary. This implies you might be able to get him for a reasonable price.
6. He improves the team in the short term and can be flipped at the deadline, offered a long term contract if he fits in, or presented a QA next offseason giving you either an extra year of him or some draft picks.
I think he fits in really well for a rebuilding team that will have two LH OFs in their AAA team next year with one or both potentially ready for a midseason call up. I certainly don't want us to go after a mediocre OF with a long term contract just because he hits left handed.
One player that I'd like to see the Phillies inquire about is Robbie Grossman. He was actually released by the Indians last season, but once he got claimed by the Twins, he went on to have a solid season. He's only 27, a switch hitter, plays all 3 outfield positions and can't qualify for Free Agency until 2021(also like that he has the ability to take a walk), so he could be a really solid pick-up, if last season wasn't a fluke. I'd much rather take a chance on him than Michael Saunders(for the right price in trade).
I might do that - but based on Crasnick's tweet, and the fact that nobody has yet satisfied the Tigers, I'm not so sure that the Tigers would do that.
The Tigers can either afford to hang on to him until the trade deadline or they can't, but I still wouldn't give up anyone of note (including Altherr, but also Quinn, Hernandez, Williams, various pitchers) for a one-year rental unless more was coming back with him. Some contenders may also be happy to see if he ends up on a team (the Phillies included) who might flip him. Because "young controllable talent' implies current major leaguers. So sure, if the Phillies were trying to win this year and wanted to upgrade the OF by trading Altherr or Hernandez plus someone else, that would be a good deal if they thought it made the team better (questionable but not impossible wrt Hernandez). But it's not a good deal to improve a team that still might not finish over .500.
Martinez may not technically be "just a 1 year" rental though. We would get the opportunity for trade him, exclusively negotiate with him on a n extension, or give him a QO thereby either getting a second year or some extra draft pics,
Negotiating an extension is certainly worth considering but I wouldn't trade for him in hopes of that, and I don't think either party would be prepared to do one as a condition of the trade. As for the QO, would you trade Cesar Hernandez and Nick Williams straight-up for Hernandez and the 35th pick in the draft? I mean, I might, if I was trying to win this year (which I know is where you're coming from). But for me, if I'm trading Hernandez, Williams or Quinn it has to be for assets which are guaranteed to help for several seasons.
Exactly! We are not in a position to trade tomorrow assets to help today. If we wanted to help both today and tomorrow, we would have signed either a youngish, non-comp FA or a Cuban. It makes no sense to me to trade value for an asset which will be wasted and done before 2019, if we aren't going to contend to 2019. I expect 2017 to be a recovery year for Altherr -- wrists just don't recover very fast -- but for him to be helping us in 2019. Hernandez could still be our starting 2B in 2019 or, more likely, traded for somebody who can help in 2019 or beyond. If TPTB are going to give up on 2017, and they clearly have done exactly that, then it is counter-productive to strip future assets to try to 'pretty up' 2017, which is just one step less impractical than spending assets to gild a turd. If we are just going to stink and wait for our minor leaguers to mature, then let's really stink and get a better draft pick.
There are reasons I'd consider moving Altherr for value - maybe even for short-term value. Those reasons are Quinn, Williams, Cozens. If you really expect Altherr to be important in 2019, you're saying you don't expect more than one of those three to be relevant?
Can't get by with 3 OFs. The 3 you list are also all quite risky/iffy for one reason or another from injuries, to an awful second half of 2016, to can't hit lefties and likely will need to platoon.
I agree with your reasoning on not trading Hernandez, Williams or Quinn for Martinez because of the expected value in the out years from them exceeding what you expect for Martinez in the short term. I certainly would like to win this year but I'm certainly not counting on it but I also think it important to try to put a winning team on the field. Altherr on the other hand is not someone I'm expecting to be more than a 4th OF in 2018 and beyond and at best our 3rd CF'er. I expect our 3 starting OF'ers in 2018 to be 3 from the following, Herrera, Williams, Quinn & Cozens. Where does Altherr fit in? Detroit on the other hand is trying to reduce payroll and find a CF'er since they traded Maybin. They know it will be easier to find a corner OF'er in this environment than a CF'er and might over pay for Alther since he can play CF. Altherr might fit their needs, a young controllable player who can play CF.
I think I'd rather keep stockpiling in hopes of trading the excess OFs and a C for pitching. Assuming there's actually an excess.
For now, the only way you can find out what you have in Altherr, or increase his value (which is barely better than a AAA player's value now, at best he's damaged goods, at worst, he's a bad hitter, either way he hasn't played enough) is to play him. They'll pick up another LHB to round out the OF. To me the Martinez rumor was only connected to the notion that the Phillies were gonna trade Hernandez, because then you still need an OF with Kendrick at 2B.
Ideal scenario is still that Willams can't be stopped from taking one of those jobs by late July, and that, if Altherr isn't great, Quinn is ready and healthy.
