Winter 2016-17 Trade Speculation and Wish List

[Carver]

I think that you guys are on target when it comes to JD Martinez - the Tigers want youthful talent in return; not just salary relief plus a couple of lottery picks. Bad trade fit for the Phils right now...the only way that I can see giving up more is if the brain trust just loves him and as a part of the deal they can extend JD (which isn't happening). Besides, they value outfield defense and in that category he is somewhat tragic.

I do not agree with their philosophy of needing to leave so darned much room for the outfield prospects...right now we have an actual major league starter in Odubel, and then who knows? Howie K. is miscast as a LF bat and is a ute at best or a stopgap 2B if Cesar is traded. Altherr is a shaky maybe with nice upside; Nick Williams needs more time; Quinn has never ever been healthy and Cozens needs more time and development as well.

Not adding a real outfielder LAST offseason was tragically short-sighted...not doing it again this year simply compounds the error. Each season is meaningful; throwing garbage out there and not spending money or committing for more than a year to a quality player that will boost a rather woebegone lineup is a mistake that insults the fan base.

Prospects should earn their way in, not have a large market team take a few years off so the prospects have a nice little glide path in the uncertain event that they actually develop. Prospects are always question marks...the vast majority never make a real impact in the majors. Adding one professional hitter to a corner outfield position should have happened, and the worst case scenario is having too much talent and needing to trade from depth if the prospects actually do what we all hope that they will do as time marches on.

[Austinfan]

None of Quinn, Williams and Cozens are a sure thing right now, and even if Quinn blossoms, you need a solid 4th OF given his injury record.

[California_Dreamin]

Olney has a column out today [ESPN Insider] about how the Orioles should think about moving Machado for prospects this summer and I am quite sure that in one of the Phillie beat writers columns a few months ago he listed Machado as the Phils 3rd baseman of the future [with Franco moving to first].

Some on this site speculated at the time that the writer might have some inside info since McPhail had once worked for the O's and IIRC was with the Orioles when Machado was originally signed.

The article indicates that Machado is eventually going to cost a boatload of money [ a Stanton like contract] and that it makes sense for the Orioles to move him this summer and in fact an O's executive even somewhat mentioned the same thing.

Wonder what it would cost in prospects and wonder if the Phils might be interested? Thoughts?

[LoneStarPhan]

I would hope the Phillies would be interested. If Machado is available, due diligence to determine what it would take to make a trade has to be taken by the Phils. That said, the price might be too high. Still, as we all know deep inside, prospects are just that, prospects.

[allentown]

Add to that: we have a ton of mid-range prospects, but we need stars.

[Austinfan]

I think we're probably a year or two away from that kind of deal.

Look at the Rangers when they traded for Hamels, their farm system was loaded at the upper levels, so they could trade the 2nd best prospect at a couple of positions and throw in some pitchers who they didn't project in their top five. That's the kind of depth you need to make those big player deals, where you're trading surplus, not potential starters.

Right now we both lack that kind of depth and most of our top prospects are either too far away or too uncertain to garner a top player without putting together the type of package that would strip our farm system.

[andyb]

Probably would cost more in prospects than we would be interested in. Maybe next year the price comes down with one less year of control and a $20 million arbitration award.

FWIW the one guy we probably definitely put in the deal is Franco if they wanted inexpensive major league ready players. They would probably want Crawford and Alfaro to start with though in addition to Franco. And then add one of Kilome or Sanchez.

[phillychuck]

Save the excess prospects for Trout!!

[kmc1019]

I think an unfortunate truth for the Phillies and other big market clubs is that it makes way more sense for a team to trade a star than to let them hit the open market in free agency. It sure would be nice for the Phillies to write a check and give up a draft pick for Machado or Harper, but it is highly unlikely they will ever have a chance to do so and will instead have to give up 3 of their top 5 prospects and/or high ceiling talent already in the big leagues in order to land these players. All the more reason why scouting and drafting and willingness to spend in international markets are so essential.

[fish]

I think Machado and Harper are going to be in a very unique situation to hit free agency as super young stars- unless they sign with their current clubs, I think it's extremely likely they will look to test the market even if they get traded. I don't know that it makes sense for any club to sell the farm just to then have to shell out a massive salary allocation.

[Carver]

I think it's extremely likely they will look to test the market even if they get traded. I don't know that it makes sense for any club to sell the farm just to then have to shell out a massive salary allocation.

Agreed...the only way that a team should give up that much is if they have the negotiating window, and why would either one of those huge stars give up the chance under these conditions?

[phillychuck]

Trout might give us a negotiating window since he's from around here and has hinted that he'd love to play here.

[Carver]

Agreed with Trout, PhillyChuck...have said elsewhere that the only way that I can see him getting here via any form of relatively sane trade is if he tells the Angels that he wants out at some point, and that he really wants to come here.

Otherwise, as a few of you have pointed out, you need to have more system depth and especially more high end players than they currently own to make sense of that type of trade scenario. And I would never recommend giving up the bulk of the farm for someone that is only controlled for a year and a half anyway.

[bigegypt0417]

Add to that: we have a ton of mid-range prospects, but we need stars.

We have players with high ceilings and a lot of B/C prospects. I look at a team like the Giants and they've basically been successful while only hitting on a few stars. they have been very successful building teams of solid major leaguers...

[Slinging_Southpaw]

One thing I'm sure we all know is the difference that the payroll means from one team to the next. A team like Pittsburgh can't do things the same way the Dodgers do. Pittsburgh, just this last season traded Francisco Liriano and "two Top 20 prospects", for a struggling/demoted Drew Hutchinson.
This was nothing but a contract dump.
I'm wondering how badly they would like to get out from under Andrew McCutcheon's and Josh Harrison's contract(I don't want Harrison either).
The Phillies could easily afford to take on both of those contracts and overpay a UT player(Harrison(they really want to move his contract)) to put him back into that role. The Phillies would take on 33Million in guaranteed contracts(plus have an option(14Million) on McCutcheon).
What it would cost in return is depending how bad Pittsburgh wants to move those contracts?
I think you could make that trade without doing much damage to the Minor League system.
I'd start with;
Cesar Hernandez(to replace Harrison cheaply)/Kendrick moves to 2B.
Clay Buchholz(going to a pitchers park to work under the tutelage of the "Pitching Whisperer", Ray Searage.) Maybe we even eat some of Buchholz's contract.
Beyond that, I wouldn't include much else besides "A-Ball Long Shots."