Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[zambonir]

If they are really committed to the 6th starter/tandem (whether planned or not) maybe so, especially if VV, Anderson and Moore are all on the roster regardless. But seems like they'd also run out of pinch-hitters and double-switch options, especially on days when Cutch or JT don't start (and they don't want them doing anything other than hitting).

Of course, four-man bench was already normal under Kapler, having five last year was the novelty at this point.

[andyb]

They got used to having 15 pitchers all year last year. Hard to think they'll jump back to 13 this year. Maybe if they get into the season and the rotation is giving them innings deep in games, but at the start I think they have 14.

[Taudawg]

Or they could use Vince Velasquez as a regular pinch hitter. He hits enough and can play a passable LF, he's a two-way player!

[David_Criss]

https://twitter.com/ScottLauber/status/1361732057458761732

Jeff Mathis signs. minor league deal and Herrera WILL attend camp.

Scott Lauber
@ScottLauber
·
40m
Odúbel Herrera will attend #Phillies camp as a non-roster invitee. Eighteen NRIs in all, including relievers Brandon Kintzler and Héctor Rondón, starter Iván Nova, and veteran catcher Jeff Mathis.

[zambonir]

That's not stated correctly by Lauber; Herrera is one of the 19 guys already on the Phillies' minor league roster who are invited to camp, while those other four guys are among 12 non-roster invitees.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Good for Herrera! I hope he still has it and the time away has caused him to appreciate MLB.

[BostonRoss]

I think it’s time to try VV as a full-time reliever. Not necessarily a one inning guy, but let him enter a game without worrying about going on for several innings. We have a lot of other rotation options now.

[Philsmania]

I think it’s time to try VV as a full-time reliever. Not necessarily a one inning guy, but let him enter a game without worrying about going on for several innings. We have a lot of other rotation options now.

I too would like to see how VV does when he has the chance to establish himself as a reliever, if that's one thing you are trying to say. When they've sent him to the bullpen in the past, it's always been on a temporary basis either in an effort to straighten himself out or he's sent back to rotation after a brief time after someone else gets hurt. He's never been good in the bullpen but, at the same time, he's never had the chance to really get a feel for pitching out of that role.

[zambonir]

Hopefully after the first couple of weeks they will start to define the pitching roles. And VV actually does bring a little value as an emergency PH/PR (and defensive replacement, heh).

[BostonRoss]

Yes, I think VV should be given the chance to establish himself as a reliever. I don’t think we have enough of a sample to know how he’ll do over a full season.

He’s been inconsistent, but overall he’s been a 1 WAR per season starter over four plus seasons. There’s not much to lose by removing him from the rotation. And he has the stuff to succeed from the pen.

[zambonir]

The question is, are two of Moore, Howard and Anderson actually better than Velasquez? We just don't know yet. In the past, every time we've written him off or assumed it was time for the conversion, he's become a starter again out of necessity.

[BostonRoss]

The way I look at it is that Vince has shown us what he is as a starter, and it is not that great. There are plenty of guys to try in the rotation who could be better, including Howard, Moore, Anderson, Nova, even Paulino. They can make room for someone not on the 40 if Moore or Anderson fails or gets hurt. If they develop the need for an additional starter by summer, there will be some new options (maybe from the minors, or the 2021 equivalents of Smyly, Vargas, etc.) By then we will see if Vince is able to excel as a reliever, which could produce more value than he does as a starter. If he doesn't take to it, Vince could still be an option to return to the rotation later in the season if he's needed.

[zambonir]

I think Vince is better than you do I guess, or that the average fungible #5-6 is just worse. He was better than Howard and Anderson and no worse than Arrieta last year. I know we're just tired of giving him so many chances but the new pitching coach has just as good at shot at getting value out of him as any of these other guys (except Howard who we obviously hope is still a future #2).

And starters are just more valuable than relievers. If he could actually give us 1.0 WAR as a starter he'll be as valuable as Bradley (who was 0.5 to VV's 0.4 last year). I think if they were considering him as a reliever they would have just traded him to a team that wanted him as a starter. Granted, if he could really establish himself as a two-inning weapon or strike-out-the-side late innings guy that would be worth his salary, but I think the odds of that actually happening are lower than him being an acceptable 5-inning 6th starter.

[BostonRoss]

I may think Vince is better than you think he is, but not as a starter. If I didn’t think he had a chance of excelling as a reliever, I’d just throw him into the mix for the last starting roles.

If none of the other guys can equal Vince as a starter, the Phillies are in trouble anyway.

[andyb]

One thing that has not happened in relief, however, is Vince's stuff playing up. He was not really throwing any harder out of the bullpen than he had done previously and he had the same first inning command issues he had as a starter. He has shown he does have the secondary pitches to be a starter but only has some of the stamina (i.e. he is an 80-pitch guy not a 100-pitch guy).

It is still an open question about whether his stuff would play up as a reliever and he could make one or two secondary pitches better rather than trying for three. We just don't know yet. If trained to throw 25 pitches every other day maybe he is a guy sitting 96-98 out of the bullpen (with better other stuff than a Coonrod). But maybe he is still the 94-95 mph guy as a starter which would be barely average velocity these days.

My gut is that he might be a guy who can throw 3-4 good innings every 3-4 days. The modern bullpen though has not been built for that type of tandem starter. Maybe it should. Maybe VV could pinch hit for Howard after 4 innings (to take advantage of his bat) and then take us to the 7th or 8th? There should be a middle ground between guys who throw 60 innings out of the bullpen and guys who throw 150-180 starting. VV might be very capable of giving us 100-120 innings in some sort of role.

[el-pietro]

If none of the other guys can equal Vince as a starter, the Phillies are in trouble anyway.

I don't agree with this.
Velasquez is somewhere between our 4th and 7th starter depending on what happens with Howard, Moore and Anderson.

If we assume for a moment hes the 4th starter then hes equivalent to Ian Anderson, Marcus Stroman and Jon Lester among our division rivals. If hes the 5th starter then its Bryce Wilson, Joey Lucchesi, and Joe Ross.
Hes not the best of that bunch, I'd definitely rather have Stroman or Anderson for example but I don't think he compares unfavourable to the group as the whole.
ZIPS projects all of that group but Lester (0.8) and Ross (0.7) for between 1.6 and 1.9 WAR in 2021. Prorating their 2020 seasons into a full 162 (and taking 2019 for Stroman and Lucchesi) Vince had the fourth highest at 1.9.
He had a pretty bad ERA in 2020, but his FIP and xFIP were 3rd best among that group.

I'm not against putting him in the pen if there is a real plan to turn him into a lights out reliever, but I think a lot of the desire to move him is because people are tired of seeing him be a mediocre starter who didn't live up to his early promise, forgetting that most teams need a mediocre starter or two to fill out their rotation. That and the fact that his pitch style is slow and can be a slog to watch.

Our rotation as a whole looks fine to me. The Mets clearly are the standout team in that perspective but I think we should get similar production from our starters to the Braves and Nationals, barring injury. Our everyday 8 was among the best in the league last year so if the pen can be mediocre rather than historically bad then the Phillies have a shot at a wild card. If the pen is good and there is a breakout from one or two players (Eflin, Kingery, Bohm, Howard, Hasely etc) then we can hope for a division title.

[Taudawg]

Phillies Sign Tony Watson

[Taudawg]

Unlike most Springs, I am very hopeful about the NRIs. I could see Watson, Kintzler, Nova and Rondon all making the active roster. Joyce as well, but his fate will likely be determined by the pitcher/position player mix the Phillies select. Dombrowski would need to work some magic with the 40 man to fit these guys and not lose needed depth. Seranthony is one slot, and that's probably Miller's spot. I don't think we'll miss Hale and Llovera. Dombrowski seems to have a strategy so I wonder if he's thinking Spring Training trade(s)?

[fish]

Phillies Sign Tony Watson

The Phillies have signed veteran left-handed reliever Tony Watson to a non-guaranteed contract. Read more at MLB Trade Rumors.

Still had very good 2020, but velo was down 4 mph, so I guess that explains the decreased demand for his services.

[andyb]

I agree that some of these non-roster pitchers have a chance to stick. It would probably be best for the organization to negotiate opt-outs with some of them (like Rondon) that give the Phillies a couple of months to decide whether to promote them. Odds are that by June 1st we will have made one or two more 60-day IL moves.

We are going to need 25 pitchers this year. We are starting with 14 but the decisions to pick those 14 should ideally not cost us arms like Llovera who could very well be part of the additional 11 we are going to need throughout the season. April may be largely about sorting out whether all 7 starters make the team and if 2 of them (Velasquez and Anderson?) can be productive out of the bullpen, or at least more valuable than someone like Rondon immediately because they can throw multiple innings. Kintzler is the one most likely to make the team out of camp. Beyond that I am not sure anyone else makes it absent further injuries.