Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[andyb]

Still had very good 2020, but velo was down 4 mph, so I guess that explains the decreased demand for his services.

Maybe not quite 4 mph. Average was down to 90.1 average being 93.2 and 93.5 the previous 2 years. But this monthly chart from Brooks Baseball has his sinker going from 88.9 in July to a more respectable 91.1 by September and he maintained pretty good separation across his pitches. He clearly has evolved as an older pitcher to throw less hard. Maybe he is more of a LOOGY now than anything else, but he might be able to be effective in that lesser role with lesser stuff. His control has improved (only 3 BBs last year) and it is not like he has ever had an awful year.

Maybe the wheels come off, but seems like a good signing to me. I am the biggest JoJo Romero fan but would also admit that a half season of him learning to be a reliever in AAA may not be the worst thing.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=453265&time=month&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=02/17/2021&s_type=2

[David_Criss]

Watson would buy Suarez and Romero some time in AAA to perhaps to get back to being starting pitching prospects.......What happened to Jose Alvarez?

[Austinfan]

Unfortunately, with the new rules on RPs, the LOOGY is basically obsolete.

[andyb]

Not really. LHPs will face a few more right-handed bats but they always faced some. And one can switch pitchers after ending an inning. If one looks at the data on pitchers there was not much change in usage.

The bigger issue is whether pitching staffs can have pitchers who only pitch about 50 innings any more. Starters going shorter distances mean more innings for the bullpen to cover and periodically swapping pitchers down to the minors is not a solution since the pitchers will still be in the majors for periods of heavy usage.

When we go down to a 13-pitcher limit this will get more acute. None of this affects Watson. If we need a LHP specialist they are not going to pinch hit Freddie Freeman to go with a right-handed batter. Watson will be fine as long as he pitches to a league average ERA or better.

[zambonir]

The thing now is, would Vince actually be a better reliever than Tony Watson, Kintzler or even Rondon? He may yet be trade bait if all three of those guys get their major league salaries.

I just think the odds of him successfully converting to a reliable, non-middle reliever to the point where A) he helps enough this year and B) is worth tendering next year are lower than the odds of him remaining useful as a fringe starter.

[Taudawg]

I think Vince is a free agent after 2021. Any contenders short a starter as we head into the season?

[zambonir]

Oh, I thought he had one more year. Honestly, in that case, who cares? If they trade him now there won't be any return, just a salary dump/roster-clearing move, perhaps with a PTBNL. Probably better to just get whatever value you can out of him in whatever role, and perhaps he gets traded in July (either to shed some salary as part of another deal or because the Phillies are sellers).

I don't think either best-case scenario (that he puts it together as a starter or that he establishes himself as a Top 4 reliever) is likely but a mediocre starter is worth more than a mediocre reliever (and pitches more innings), especially for the first half of this season. And the difference between a tandem starter and a middle reliever is largely semantics.

[julio]

I think Vince is a free agent after 2021.

Correct. Current service time is 5.088 years.

[Taudawg]

If a contender hopeful has a starter go down in Spring Training, the Phils might be able to get a lottery-ticket type prospect for Vince. Other teams, not just the Phillies, believe they can unlock the promise of guys with great stuff. Boston is counting on Pivetta in 2021 - go figure.

Brad Miller is now official.

[zambonir]

But Boston isn't trying to win now and Pivetta is controlled until 2025. We probably should have traded Vince to a rebuilding team looking to unload a mid-priced reliever or bench player last year. Any team with a hole in their rotation that also has $4 million to spend still has plenty of choices.

I would say BostonRoss's statement that we've got a problem if none of our other #5 starter candidates can't be better than Vince also applies to the bullpen. The swingman/depth role is likely his best use, he's just slightly overpaid on a team that is creeping ever closer to the threshold.

[bkeich]

If a contender hopeful has a starter go down in Spring Training, the Phils might be able to get a lottery-ticket type prospect for Vince.

Honestly I would rather try him as a reliever. He has bounced around for 2 years, but we have never really given him a chance as a reliever for long enough to truly evaluate. It has always been "you will be a reliever"..."oh wait, we need a starter".

Give him 50 appearances in the bullpen and see if he can start to put things together.

[Taudawg]

Give him 50 appearances in the bullpen and see if he can start to put things together.

I'll all for that. He is a free agent at the end of the season. If he's doing well and they are out of contention, they can flip him mid-season. If he's doing well and they are contending, 4 mil is a bargain for an effective reliever.

[el-pietro]

Its also a good value for a mediocre starter which we know he can be. We have no evidence he can be an effective reliever.

[zambonir]

It was a bargain two years ago. Right now much better, proven relievers are getting $1-3 million... or minor league deals. Even some of the stiffs we had last year are better bets to bounce back with their new teams than VV is to finally become a good reliever at the last possible moment.

It's true he's never gotten a stable opportunity, but like andy said, he also hasn't shown any hint of taking to - or accepting - the role. How many innings would you let him pitch as a crap reliever before he just gets DFAed or turned into the same mop-up guy he'd functionally be as a 6th starter?

He may also yet be our 4th or 5th starter. Like you said, that's kind of a problem if so, but the other three candidates were not demonstrably better in their most recent MLB seasons.

[Taudawg]

This is why I used "If" to start my statements

If he's not doing well, there are other alternatives. Chances are, he is what he is, a guy with a career 4.72 ERA who throws too many pitches. I don't expect anything different in the bullpen, but he's here and making 4 mil this season. I didn't want him tendered - hindsight being 20/20 they might not have. I don't know if Dombrowski thought he could accumulate all these arms at such low costs. The offseason did not start out that way with Trevor May getting 15.5m for 2 years.

[BostonRoss]

In all likelihood, it won't make much difference what they do with Vince. He isn't likely to become a great reliever, but he isn't going to suddenly become a good starter either.

But we already know what he is as a starter. A 1 WAR starter is one win better than a replacement player. Maybe whoever takes his spot in the rotation will be a replacement level pitcher, and we'll lose that win, but maybe a Moore or a Howard could be better. There just isn't much to lose by giving up Vince's spot in the rotation. And if he can become a good reliever, well we know we need help in the pen. The best outcome might 4 WAR between the last starter and Vince in the pen. Not likely, but more probable than Vince in the rotation and someone else n the pen.

We all know that the only way the Phillies can contend is if a lot of things go right. Giving themselves a couple more chances at some things going right, like one of the starters they signed doing well and Vince finding himself as a reliever. is a better strategy than making the team look more like last year's team.

[Philsmania]

I wonder if the Mets regret jumping the gun and paying May that much.

[zambonir]

It was not Dombrowski's call, nor Fuld's, so they could have tried to trade him once they ran the show. But I think Vince fits into the quantity over quality approach they decided to take. It was not so much "we don't need Vince now that we have Moore and Anderson" but rather, "we have Vince, let's add a couple of more guys." The real question is would they have been better off with one of Paxton or Walker or Odorizzi.

It will be interesting to see how slowly things move in spring training, and if they really try to get things lined up for a 6-man rotation or tandems. Personally, I think we have a lot of options in the bullpen now and don't necessarily think the loser of the starter sweepstakes, whether it is Anderson or Vince, will be better than whomever gets pushed out (Hale, sure, but I think he's gone anyway).

[julio]