Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[EDmuch]

Despite the dark ending to this year, I think there is much for the team to build upon for next year. Harper, Hoskins, Bohm and Realmuto (yeah I know we have to sign him) create a strong offensive foundation. Nola, Wheeler and Eflin create a strong 1-2-3 pitching staff. One of the big questions is whether Howard can be counted on as a decent 4th starter. If so, I would bring back VV as a No. 5.. Of course there is still shortstop and the bullpen. I would like to see them go out and get a real closer. Maybe also bring back Robertson on a "show me" type of one year deal.

[bigegypt0417]

Where does the phillies payroll sit for 2021 as of now?

I know there are a couple of big salaries falling off...right?

[EDmuch]

Arrieta and Robertson I think.

[bigegypt0417]

looks like some big ones coming off...

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/yearly/payroll/

[EDmuch]

My gawd, we will be paying over $13,000,000 for Kingery and Neris combined ????? Boy is that shrewd use of money ....... cough, gasp, choke.

[bigegypt0417]

Neris is a club option and I expect a bounce back for Kingery...4 million even for a bench guy isn't horrible.

[julio]

Looking at both Spotrac and Cot's, here's what it looks like to me:

Unrestricted Free Agents	2020 Salary
Jake Arrieta	20,000,000
Jose Alvarez	2,950,000
Tommy Hunter	850,000
Blake Parker	563,500
Brandon Workman	3,500,000
J.T. Realmuto	10,000,000
Didi Gregorius	14,000,000
Jay Bruce	1,750,000
TOTAL	53,613,500

Club Options	2020 Salary	2021 Option	Buyout
Hector Neris	4,600,000	7,000,000	-
David Phelps	1,250,000	4,500,000	250,000
David Robertson	11,000,000	12,000,000	2,000,000
TOTALS	16,850,000	23,500,000	2,250,000

That's about $54 million in UFA salaries. Another potential $14.5 million in optional savings (2020 less buyouts). My guess is they'll exercise the Neris option - if they don't, they'll either have to non-tender him or go to arbitration, where he'll probably get his $7 million anyway. So it looks like about $7.5 million in savings from club options.

So, about $61 million coming off the books. While we might want the Phils to re-sign some of the free agents (Realmuto, Gregorius), we cannot assume that the players will sign here even if the club wants them.

[Note: Table 1 and discussion revised to reflect correction of Jay Bruce. Bruce salary above is 2020 lux tax salary, per Spotrac. Thanks, mdougherty12!]

[mdougherty12]

Seattle paid $12.625 million of Bruce's salary, according to Cot's.

[mdougherty12]

One of the big questions is whether Howard can be counted on as a decent 4th starter.

I don't see how one could count on Spencer Howard for 2021, certainly not for a full season. He's still never thrown much more than 100 innings in a season, and he couldn't maintain velocity for even 5 innings in his 6 big league starts this season.

[bigegypt0417]

No matter what happens, the phillies will need to bring in one more starter and a new group of ...there are a bunch of those types available...

Here are the top 25 free agents for 2020-21

[andyb]

I had no clue Taijuan Walker was even halfway to free agency. I guess it pays as a pitcher to have your big injuries when you are on the major league roster as opposed to the minors. I am not necessarily advocating for him. Just amazed he is a free agent. And still young (age 27).

[zambonir]

Neris is underrated, if anything. Even after this bumpy season he wound up having a pretty good one (yesterday didn't help his final stats but that wasn't his fault). I'd listen to trade offers on him just because he's so close to free agency, but $7 million is nothing, and the system isn't truly merit-based, it's about service time and the most overrated stat/role in baseball.

If they went to arbitration how would that even work, the Phillies wouldn't be able to offer much less than $6 million and he'd probably ask for $7.5. A two-year extension might actually be the way to go, I don't think Neris is good enough to get into seven figures and multi-year deals as a free agent, so it would be good security for him too.

And Kingery's contract only barely pays him more than he would get from arbitration, and it's not like he'd be non-tendered. If he flops, obviously, that could happen, and/or his theoretical arbitration salaries would be lower. But the contract was the price of letting him start his service clock.

[Philsmania]

Neris is one of those guys were fan perception is not reality. The phanbase generally can't stand him--per my experience with all the yahoos on Facebook Phillies pages--and thinks he's trash. It's pretty much visceral. That is mainly because his blown saves are reallly, really ugly--like can't get a single guy out ugly--and they tend to come in bunches before he snaps out of it and pitches like Mariano Rivera for most of the rest of the season. It's those hideous stretches that he has every season that stick in their minds and, if they pick up his option, some heads will explode in the Delaware Valley

[zambonir]

That's also just because fans think pro athletes are overpaid and have no sense of what market value is in MLB.

Alas, Neris does not ever pitch like Mariano Rivera, he still walks guys and his out pitch isn't as dominant even when he's at his best. I would certainly prefer it if he was our third or fourth-best reliever, but $7 million is still cheap for someone who can consistently be just that (and often better). We need to find two guys who are as good or better, but if we cut him loose, then we'd need three. It was supposed to be him and Robertson and Seranthony last year and it should have at least been him and Phelps this year (Workman was never actually better than Neris, at least not this season, and they are also probably too similar to be in the same pen).

[allentown]

Great ballplayers want to play in big games. With the Phillies so far from being able to advance in post-season (not having hit the milestones of having a winning record since 2011 or even sneaking into a short-season expanded playoff), what would lead Realmuto to believe he could get to a WS with us during his next contract? It's cerrtainly possible we could make it 5 years from now, 4 if we get really lucky, but Realmuto's best chance to make a major contribution to a WS team is during the next three seasons. I know he said that he wanted to keep his family in one location, but he'll have six years in place in whatever area his next contract places him. I doubt he wants more seasons like the last two, and can anyone honestly say that the next two years are likely to be all that much different than the last ywo. 88 wins seems like a top, and that seems like a stretch.

My biggest hopes for next season are that we do better when Girardi gets to choose his whole coaching staff and that we get some luck with the FAs we sign this winter.

[zambonir]

Great ballplayers still take the biggest contract. The only question is how high will the market go and how badly does Middleton want it?

Baseball players also aren't that objective/smart/pessimistic. There's not one guy in that locker room who doesn't think this team was good enough to win the World Series, even if they might privately rip the GM for not signing better relievers. JT isn't sitting around worrying that Segura and Cutch might stink next year, any more than he is worried that he might stink in 2024. Harper thinks Spencer Howard is a future ace, not a future surgery patient. So long as the money is right JT thinks he can win here and if the Marlins or the Rangers offer him more money, he'll go there, even if they can't win (that the Marlins may be better than the Rangers - and the Phillies obviously - is besides the point).

I don't see how Girardi's coaching staff can make any more of a difference. He got his own hitting coach, his own pitching coach and already had the same bench coach he had in NY. Replacing Dusty Wathan or Juan Castro isn't going to add a win.

But perhaps now that Thomson has failed here for three seasons, and is no longer needed to mentor an inexperienced, non-traditional coach, maybe it's time for a young innovative bench coach to complement Girardi's steadiness and experience.

[andyb]

I'd be fine keeping Neris for his option for another year. Whenever you have a 1-year deal it is always a manageable risk.

Neris has always been good and not great. He relies heavily on one unique pitch and when that is not working he has issues. The all East schedule did not help him as more hitters were familiar with him. They should not count on Neris as their closer, but as one of three or four back end arms he should be fine.

[phillychuck]

Agree about Neris. When he has his splitter working he's actually elite.

[allentown]

Great ballplayers still take the biggest contract

Covid might change the complexion of this off-season, but it certainly sounds like Realmuto is going to have multiple serious offers to entertain. We already have extremely recent benchmarks for what sort of contract a top catcher can be expected to receive for initial free agency. I don't see Realmuto as a Thome case, where the Phillies can afford to significantly overpay to make a statement that they are an emerging team to be reckoned with. We already have Harper and Wheeler and are focused on building a team that can advance in the playoffs. The Phillies have a lot of holes to fill. They didn't have a winning record in either of Realmuto's years here. They won't significantly overpay beyond market. So, the $ offers likely don't differ by a lot and other considerations, especially likelihood of getting to a WS, very likely dominate Realmuto's decision. I will be very surprised if we re-sign him..

[zambonir]

I just think the Phillies have already lost the battle, and can't afford to lose the war. Not signing JT for the greater good of the franchise's future is completely logical, if the market for him is heavy. But at this point if they lose him, regardless of what happens at the front office level, Middleton will be a joke in this town (if he isn't already) and based on yesterday's post-game comments, will have lost the respect of his two best players (and possibly his manager) too.

If they do make a change, that's gonna be the first interview question. "What are you going to do to keep JT Realmuto here?"

I am concerned about what his deal will be like for the Phillies in three years, but it's not at all crippling in and of itself now. You could offer him the six year, $150 million deal that takes him off the market (Goldschmidt's five-year $130 being the benchmark) and that's only $15 million more in AAV than he makes now - more than covered by subtracting Arrieta (or almost covered by subtracting Robertson). If you lose him you're still going to spend most of that $25 million on a catcher and a bat.

In the meantime, if the Phillies want to gamble that the COVID market lets them get away with five years or less AAV, that doesn't bother me, as long as they are ready to play at the end. Which they previously have been.