Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

allentown 2020-09-28 21:47:34 UTC #21

I'd be quite happy if the Phillies did that deal. I just doubt that Realmuto will do it.

andyb 2020-09-28 21:59:34 UTC #22

I think they end up with a bunch of smaller 1-2 year deals from players in a collapsing market if they don't sign JT. The top of the market is likely to get paid. The middle of the market might think 2022 offers better potential for a longer term market rate deal.

They also will probably not spend money on catcher if they do not sign JT. I think they go with Knapp and a $3-$5 million veteran at most. Catchers are cheap because they get hurt all the time and are mediocre. No reason to overpay there. The market is also terrible for catchers this offseason unless they trade.

zambonir 2020-09-28 22:01:44 UTC #23

If that's your concern, I don't think I share it. I'm not even sure he can get the Posey/Goldschmidt money he was seeking in this climate.

The Mookie Betts deal is all well and good, but JT is not Mookie Betts - or even close to him really, other than the "for a catcher" aspect that he brings. But Betts also has positional value, blows JT away offensively, and was also three years younger at the time he signed.

And if you're right that he can do even better than $150 six years, I don't mind walking away, or at least waiting to see if it really happens. $25-30 million could still buy you an adequate catcher and a near-All-Star bat. Or two solid regulars.

flyers19rw 2020-09-28 22:26:35 UTC #24

I’d like to see the Phillies do something with the $10M or so that is going to Herrera next season. Either use him or deal him. Some club has a bad contract that they swap out for him. It’s hard to let that kind of money just sit on the payroll wasting away.

Philsmania 2020-09-28 22:35:46 UTC #25

Something along the lines of that Braves-Indians trade a few years ago the Indians sent Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and cash to the Braves for Chris Johnson? Money ended up being equal but the Braves got it off the books sooner while the Indians had a lower AAV. When you factor in Herrera's 2022 buyout, it's actually $12,850,000.00. Maybe take some one's bad contract at a lower AAV but stays on the books through 2022? Say somebody has a player on a bad $22 million contract through 2022 and they trade the guy and $9,150,000 to us for Herrera. Both teams end up eating the same amount of money if all involved get cut but the Phillies get $6 million plus more room in 2021.

zambonir 2020-09-28 22:43:04 UTC #26

But moving Herrera only saves you $7.35 million AAV, though perhaps the Phillies might not mind saving a few million in real money too (especially with that buyout). I just don't think anybody wants him, under any circumstance. And the bad contracts you could work with there would only saddle you with more payroll and/or years. Like, what are we gonna do, get David Price? Even if a team had a $10 million 5th starter they want to dump, that guy has some trade value. You pretty much would have to send someone a prospect to take him. At best you could maybe hide him in a larger deal.

Who's the worst reliever in baseball making $10 million right now? We could probably get that guy, and then hope he's due for a comeback.

Lucky_Beagle 2020-09-28 22:49:35 UTC #27

If looking for the worst reliever in baseball I would start by looking at the Phillies roster!

allentown 2020-09-28 23:12:48 UTC #28

Sorry, but that wasn't my point. I'm not saying he can get more $/years than that, I'm saying I think he can get that deal or a very close one from a team which looks likely to be more competitive than the Phillies are likely to be over the next 2-3 years and that this will be more significant to him than even getting 5 - 10% more elsewhere. Andy has a good point about the Phillies perhaps not going that high in this market, because he is a fan and teammate favorite and to lose him for just a comp pick will make losing Sixto hurt more and make that deal look bad to the average fan.

allentown 2020-09-28 23:17:07 UTC #29

I'd rather get it off the books sooner.

zambonir 2020-09-28 23:32:43 UTC #30

Yeah I just don't think that will happen. They have been on a mission to get him the biggest catching contract in history, and that's the one they'll sign.

Austinfan 2020-09-29 14:37:20 UTC #31

I'd pass on resigning JT if the money and term get crazy, it's not like he's the missing piece that will put us over the top, 80, 81 and 76 (pro-rated) wins the last three years. Anything pass 5 years or $20M or so, 6yr/$25M is nuts for the Phillies (but not a team with a 2-3 year window for the WS, after which the deluge).

Phillies are starting to build a core, they need to draft well the next couple years (especially college picks) and finally hit on one or two LA players (Rojas? Garcia?).
C: Knapp, Marchan the long-term solution
1B: Hopkins
2B: Kingery
SS: ??? resign Didi? Stott in a year or two? Garcia down the road?
3B: Bohm (just has to be "average" or slightly below in the field)
LF: Cutch then Haseley? Moniak?:
CF: Haseley/Quinn - this is where Phillies need someone like Rojas to break out
RF: Harper
DH: easiest spot to fill, Segura for one year (i.e. plays somewhere, pushing different players to DH for rest), then ???

SP: Nola, Wheeler, Eflin, Howard, Suarez/Jones/Medina
RP: Neris, Brogdon, Romero, and who else?

The two keys the next few years is

(1) producing a "surprise" player who isn't a 1st rd pick, whether it's Garcia, Rojas, Simmons, Baylor et al. You need to find one of these guys every few years.Otherwise you need to tank and pick in the top 5 for a couple seasons (Bohm). Where would Houston be without Altuve, the Braves without their second tier LA prospects who surprised. Sixto is the only one I can think of the last decade, and we traded him for an 80 and 81 win season.

(2) producing RPs out of the system, whether it's high potential guys who you move to the pen or college starters who add velo when they move to the pen and surprise. B/c RPs are so erratic, you need a steady supply of these arms, supplanted by waiver wire guys. Only pay for reliable closers, the rest are fungible if you have good coaching.

andyb 2020-09-29 15:17:24 UTC #32

That is a below average core you laid out. C, 2B, SS, LF, CF, and RP are all positions/units that would grade below average for MLB. 1B and 3B are about average and RF is above average. Just not a good team.

bigegypt0417 2020-09-29 15:28:15 UTC #33

AF builds teams to win 80-85 games and hopes we get lucky.

It's been his model for the whole time we've been here.

He wants to build like the A's when you have money to be so much more with the right GM running the show.

andyb 2020-09-29 15:37:32 UTC #34

I admit I'm divided on what they should do. I might lean to trying to do a quick 1-2 year rebuild using money to paper over some weak points. This might mean you still resign Realmuto but at the same time look to get younger elsewhere. That might require trades where one buys prospects or eats bad contracts.

Not sure this ownership group could stomach that - sign a $125 million free agent like JT but then do moves that will pay off in 2-3 years all while having a large payroll (required to buy the extra prospects). I guess I am more expecting them to muddle through. Spend $190 million instead of $210 million by trying to get second tier free agents that are better values in the pandemic.

bigegypt0417 2020-09-29 15:42:39 UTC #35

So if you resign JT and then fill in some relievers and a back of the rotation starter, is this starting line-up close to competing?

I'm trying to figure that part out...

andyb 2020-09-29 15:43:55 UTC #36

Probably not. You sell it by saying we're a .500 club that is getting younger and it will pay off in the future.

bigegypt0417 2020-09-29 15:50:19 UTC #37

i guess i'm stuck on how well the offense was for the 60 games...

blowing 20 games out of 60 games with a historically bad bullpen is confusing.

EDmuch 2020-09-29 15:56:59 UTC #38

I say ownership should go all in next year, sign JT and Didi, and add another starter (maybe even VV as a fifth starter) and sign a real closer. Then if by some miracle, Kingery becomes a real major league player, trade Segura. I would also look to add a right handed hitting 4/5 outfielder. Do we blow thru the salary cap? Yes. That is the only option to move forward at this point.

Austinfan 2020-09-29 16:05:58 UTC #39

The offense was good, but here's the problem in 2021:
JT (30), Segura (31), Didi (31), Cutch (34), Bruce (34).
So what are the odds they'll repeat, improve or decline?
And by 2022, watch out.

Harper (28), Bohm (24), Hoskins (28), Knapp (29)

Kingery (27), Haseley (25), Moniak (23)

Problem is most prospects lost a year of development, other than Stott

zambonir 2020-09-29 20:42:37 UTC #40

Have we traded for this guy? Can he play 1b? (Teasing, but I really don't understand that typo - as opposed to people who can't spell MacPhail - or why you wouldn't correct it.