Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[allentown]

Problem is most prospects lost a year of development, other than Stott

No, the problem is that Stott is one of the very few solid prospects whom we have to develop. We have drafted poorly and our international has been a disgrace. The reason it will be so difficult to get younger any time soon is that our minor leagues are largely devoid of guys with the talent to develop to the level of an average MLB player, let alone a plus player. We have to QO Didi and hope that keeps him for a year, because otherwise we don't have an adequate SS.

[zambonir]

We have to QO Didi and hope that keeps him for a year, because otherwise we don't have an adequate SS.

There are other shortstops out there though. And loads of second basemen. Going with Kingery or Segura at SS probably not ideal but if you've got $14-18 million to spend from losing Didi there will be other options, both defensively and offensively, short-term and long-term (Stott probably isn't even ready in 2022, or even a sure thing to stay at SS).

Of course it would be great if he takes the QO. Bird in hand and all.

Marcus Semien was supposed to be the best available SS FA this year but he had a terrible season. Will it affect his market? It could also affect Didi's (in either direction - teams might prefer him to Semien, or teams might figure they can get Semien for a similar price now).

[zambonir]

So we're really gonna do this again huh?

A tumultuous time for Phillies with Matt Klentak's fate unclear, layoffs looming

[bigegypt0417]

We really have no idea how good or bad the last few drafts have been...that story is unwritten.

What we need is for better player development and with the new additions to the instructional team, we wont know for another year or so.

[zambonir]

The fact that MacPhail's name was still over Dave Buck's in the letter announcing layoff plans - along with the lack of any media whispers - suggests his job status is not under review.

The entire situation has created a certain level of stress and anger among the rank-and-file employees as the Phillies attempt to chart an offseason course that could involve paying two GM salaries while facing few alternatives to boost the club’s on-field chances other than spending more money on payroll.

The financial and logistical challenges are part of Middleton’s calculus in determining Klentak’s future. Klentak is under contract for two more seasons and he will be paid that money whether he is the general manager or not. The same goes for his top assistants, Ned Rice and Bryan Minniti. The Phillies assembled the largest payroll ($208 million, before a shortened schedule led to pro-rated salaries) in club history. A team’s largest expenditure is player payroll, and given the club’s behavior with its employees, it is reasonable to expect the Phillies must trim payroll in a meaningful way.

Fun! The baseball infrastructure cuts won't come until after Halloween.

[Austinfan]

Middleton in the Inqy today said the problem in the organization was player evaluation.
He also noted you can't buy your way into a Championship through free agency.
It's nice to know that he's reading my posts.

Which is wonderful, first you have to identify the problem, then you can find a solution.

[zambonir]

Talk is cheap:

“I think if you look at the teams that are successful today, they all are teams that are really built through developing core players up through the farm system,” managing partner John Middleton said that day as Klentak was introduced. “… I think that’s a commonality and that’s where we need to be. And then I think the other question is, when you get there, how do you sustain that?

“I don’t think you can buy a winner.”

[andyb]

Buying a winner is not a binary choice. It was entirely appropriate for the Phillies to spend to the luxury tax line. It is also entirely appropriate for the owner to assume his GM can build depth at the same time. The Phillies did not sign Harper to buy a winner. We signed Harper theoretically because he was a very good offensive player that could put a young team into the playoffs (and as a historically young free agent was also a pretty good bet to be productive for much of his contract).

The problem has not been spending money. The problem was bad decisions that preceded spending the money. Good teams find ways to buy prospects with money in trades. The Phillies (Seabold) find ways to give better prospects because they can't spend more money).

[bigegypt0417]

Middleton in the Inqy today said the problem in the organization was player evaluation.
He also noted you can't buy your way into a Championship through free agency.
It's nice to know that he's reading my posts.

Which is wonderful, first you have to identify the problem, then you can find a solution.

Who is talking about buying a championship? What is being discussed is using the open market to add pieces you are missing. ?I really hope he's not reading your posts because i'd rather not follow a team that builds to win 80 games every year.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Middleton said during an interview that MacPhail has one year left on his contract and implied that that would be the end of his time here most likely.

[Philsmania]

My take on it is that Rice is going to be a placeholder while McPhail is transitioning out, essentially tasked with his replacement who will undertake his (or her?) role in a different manner.

[zambonir]

Yah, you were replying to what is a pretty old post at this point (though most of the newer conversation about that stuff is in the Klentak thread).

[bkeich]

So, apparently Middleton is going to waste a year waiting for McPhail to be “not retained” and then have his replacement find a GM? Is that what I am reading? So he is retaining McPhail as a lame duck head of the organization?

I really do feel bad for Harper. I honestly don’t like him all that much (extreme arrogance), but this can’t be the plan he had in mind. Signing and two uninspiring years later the team starts a build (it isn’t a rebuild if you didn’t build anything that you are replacing).

I know there are those on this board that were very excited about Middleton, is anyone still excited? Are we building for a possible playoff team in 2025 now? Later? Honestly, with the state of this team even 2025 sounds optimistic

[Florida_Sunshine]

Not sure this has played out yet. Overall it does sound like he is ready to move on and bring in a new management team.

[allentown]

So, apparently Middleton is going to waste a year waiting for McPhail to be “not retained” and then have his replacement find a GM? Is that what I am reading? So he is retaining McPhail as a lame duck head of the organization?

That's how I read it with a minor quibble. I think for some reason Middleton doesn't want to fire MacPhail, or shove him aside, as he did with Klentak. Klentak is a kid who held the GM spot, perhaps before he was experienced eough to succeed. MacPhail is baseball royalty. The Phillies have always doted on baseball royalty. But... I think Middleton isn't going to get the quality of GM he needs and seeks, unless he gives the guy the GM/President position. Giving the President position also allows him to interview guys, whom their current employers were deny the interview opportunity, if just the GM job was offered.

That's also why I don't see significant organizational change, as in upgrading our international operation, during this year. It's why space will be left under the cap and why Middleton won't go wild on FA and likely doesn't sign JT or Didi to long-term deals. All of that reduces the new GM-President's room to maneuver. This coming year is a punt, because the decision to keep MacPhail through the length of his contract constipates the whole process for a season. I'm expecting grim at the MLB level, although if we don't sign a comp FA, we get a first and second round draft pick for the first time in what seems like forever. If we QO JT and Didi and they sign elsewhere, we actually get 4 draft picks in the first two rounds. Won't that be a novel experience? I wish I had more faith in the guys making those picks and it's a tough job to get it right when you don't know what sort of player the new GM-President wants on the team. It's fine if we pick good square pegs and train them up for that -- they'll be tradeable, but if we just draft so-so square pegs, as we tend to do (I guess I shouldn't say that, it's been a while since we had a second rounder and the recent first round picks seem sound -- it's the guys picked later to be relievers and reserves, where there is a big chance of mismatch in desired skills between old and new regimes..

[Philsmania]

If we get four picks in the first two rounds, all we can do is hope that Barber really is better than Almaraz.

[zambonir]

I think they put themselves in a real bind here. Even if they fired MacPhail yesterday, it would be difficult to just hire a new President quickly. But mostly, MacPhail is in no way being forced out. He's in charge of finding his replacement, just like Gillick was in charge of finding MacPhail (who also had Monty's approval). Middleton trusts him completely and in the short-term they are not holding Klentak's tenture against MacPhail, or Rice. Klentak himself will probably be working on arbitration briefs or processing analytic scouting reports, since it's all on Zoom there won't be any bad optics to him being around.

When it's all over and (if we're lucky) Theo Epstein or Neander or Thad Levine (who is not the President in Minnesota) is in charge MacPhail will almost certainly remain as an advisor. Heck, we're not that far off from Ruben coming back as an advisor!

They really can't hire anybody in time for the first round of off-season moves if they want an actual President of baseball ops. Theo's not yet in play (not that I think that happens), Neander and some others are still in the playoffs, and Luhnow still can't be interviewed.

In that recent interview Arbuckle implied that he and he alone made all the first-round picks during his time so hopefully they just let Barber do his job. Of course he's still got Almaraz and Gillick, the guys most responsible for Randolph and Moniak, to "help."

[David_Criss]

Hoskins has Tommy John today hopes to be ready for Spring Training.

[Philsmania]

I think they put themselves in a real bind here. Even if they fired MacPhail yesterday, it would be difficult to just hire a new President quickly. But mostly, MacPhail is in no way being forced out. He's in charge of finding his replacement, just like Gillick was in charge of finding MacPhail (who also had Monty's approval). Middleton trusts him completely and in the short-term they are not holding Klentak's tenture against MacPhail, or Rice. Klentak himself will probably be working on arbitration briefs or processing analytic scouting reports, since it's all on Zoom there won't be any bad optics to him being around.

When it's all over and (if we're lucky) Theo Epstein or Neander or Thad Levine (who is not the President in Minnesota) is in charge MacPhail will almost certainly remain as an advisor. Heck, we're not that far off from Ruben coming back as an advisor!

They really can't hire anybody in time for the first round of off-season moves if they want an actual President of baseball ops. Theo's not yet in play (not that I think that happens), Neander and some others are still in the playoffs, and Luhnow still can't be interviewed.

In that recent interview Arbuckle implied that he and he alone made all the first-round picks during his time so hopefully they just let Barber do his job. Of course he's still got Almaraz and Gillick, the guys most responsible for Randolph and Moniak, to "help."

The Phillies are going to be laying off a bunch of people. Somehow, I think the ranks of "special advisors" nat be thinned and guys like Morandini and Sarge may lose their "team ambassador" gigs.

[zambonir]

Good point but I suspect MacPhail is still immune from that, and Gillick still has his ownership share. Ryan has already announced his retirement (but will be involved in this search). I wonder how much people like Bowa and Charlie and Mackanin really make once their former full-time deals have lapsed (or been renegotiated). Schmidt and Rollins are also advisors to Middleton, rather than the baseball department. The "ambassadors can't even do their jobs, but I think the layoffs are more likely to come from the rank and file, not famous ex-players with part-time positions. They certainly can't lay off Dick Allen this year of all years!