Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[flyers19rw]

If I were Brian Roberts, after hearing that Middleton wants to play a mulligan here with the coming season(s), I’d demand one from the Phillies and a release of Comcast’s broadcast payments until the organization feels that it’s in a position to play competitive baseball with the type of payroll that a major market team should have.

[Philsmania]

If I were Brian Roberts, after hearing that Middleton wants to play a mulligan here with the coming season(s), I’d demand one from the Phillies and a release of Comcast’s broadcast payments until the organization feels that it’s in a position to play competitive baseball with the type of payroll that a major market team should have.

And NBCSNP will find what to fill its airtime with that advertisers will want to pay for?

[zambonir]

Comcast pays for the right to air games. Doesn't matter if they go 0-162 or 162-0. The Phillies also own a share of the network, so if ratings and ad rates go down, it hurts them. But the value of the games (both for viewership and subscribers) has very little to do with the success of the team.

I mean, that will happen as soon as season ticketholders get rebates depending on how many games the team wins.

[flyers19rw]

What says that advertisers will want to pay for ad time on broadcasts on a production that no one watches? The Sixers, Flyers and Eagles along with college sports can fill the void.

[zambonir]

The average local viewership for a Phillies game is only around 100,000 people. They stink maybe that drops to 80,000, they get good, maybe it's 120 or 140 until the playoffs (which Comcast doesn't air). It is part of a much bigger financial picture for NBC that includes carriage fees and the website and their other programming and local streaming, as well as their rivalry with Disney and Sinclair (Fox no longer technically exists). The only thing that would decrease the value of the Phillies' rights is if they moved the team to a smaller city.

[Philsmania]

What says that advertisers will want to pay for ad time on broadcasts on a production that no one watches? The Sixers, Flyers and Eagles along with college sports can fill the void.

Once you get to the NBA and NHL conference finals, it's all national TV rights. So, from June through August, baseball is the only game in town for live sports on a channel like NBCSNP. September too because the NFL is confined to CBS, NBC, Fox and ESPN. And, only on Sunday and Monday. That's a whole third of the year. College sports--at least the ones that people actually watch (football and basketball)--are all done by the first Monday in April. Do you really think people will watch and advertisers will pay for replays of Sixers and Flyers games in August? And, not to mention, a baseball team usually is in action at least six days a week, so that's a lot of content.

And, as hard as it may be to believe right now, the Phillies WILL get good again at some point.

[zambonir]

We don't even know if they're going to bad next year!

And really, Brian Roberts is not someone who is going to hold the Phillies accountable. More likely you'd find him sitting at the Capital Grille with MIddleton and David Cohen smoking cigars and swapping stock tips and layoff stories. The Comcast relationship is part of what makes the Phillies complacent and old-fashioned, not something that would jolt them into culture change.

[Squire]

I hate to keep asking the same question....but do we know for certain that we will get comp picks if Didi and JT bolt? I thought there was real uncertainty about that and whether we had to extend qualifying offers to get the picks.

[andyb]

The uncertainty was whether teams would lose picks as compensation for signing other free agents. They always wanted to keep the compensation for teams losing the QO free agents.

[Philsmania]

This writer speculates that maybe the Phillies let Realmuto walk for big bucks, sign Bauer and McCann from the White Sox and use the rest of what would have been Realmuto's money for a centerfielder. In a way, that would be reminiscent of what the Nationals did prior to 2019, letting Harper walk while doubling down on pitching by signing Corbin. There are differences too, of course, namely the Nationals having a franchise outfielder on hand to replace Harper in Soto.

Could Trevor Bauer be fallback if Phillies lose J.T. Realmuto? – Phillies Nation

[bkeich]

sign Bauer and McCann from the White Sox

This of course assumes that Bauer would be interested in a team that hasnt gone to the playoffs in 8 years and cant present a credible plan for how they are going to get there since they dont have a GM. I think we are dreaming if we think the top FAs are even going to come for any more than a cursory visit.

Bauer will probably quickly figure out that we have 2 position players (RF and 3B), a utility player (Kingery, who is questionable whether he can really hit ML pitching) and a couple starting pitchers. Other than that.... we have a bunch of money to spend and not many positions filled (1B: Black Hole with our 1B having Tommy John, 2B, SS: ?? , LF: aging former star who isnt much of a player, CF: Lots of candidates, none very appealing). Bullpen: One of the worst in the last 20 years of all teams.

Honestly, I dont see any way that we sign a top FA. Money is not the only thing they look at, they want a chance to win and this is a below average team that is going the wrong way.

[zambonir]

It's Jon Heyman floating this scenario, as Jon Heyman does.

With Bauer who can say what he'll look at? He's still on record as not wanting to take a multi-year deal, as the article mentions. But in the end, most players do still take the money. A team with Nola, Price and Bauer could still win 90 games next year, you write him a $25 million check and he's not going to studying the roster that closely. Most players would welcome the chance to play with Cutch and Segura and Harper, they're not gonna be like, "Cutch is obviously in decline, and Harper disappears for a month at a time, I don't think I can win there."

Also Bauer is a huge Driveline guy.

I'm just not sure we're in the position to win a bidding war for anyone, the way the Middleton is talking. Our only hope is that all the other owners feel the same way.

[Austinfan]

Good. What got us in this hole was focusing on adding "veterans" instead of making the major commitment to finally fixing the organizational problems - money can patch things in the short-run, but it just hides the rot.

Last thing we need are more Arrieta/Cutch deals.

[allentown]

What got us in this hole was focusing on adding "veterans" instead of making the major commitment to finally fixing the organizational problems - money can patch things in the short-run, but it just hides the rot.

Last thing we need are more Arrieta/Cutch deals.

No. Those are separate issues. The Phillies certainly tried to do both. They simply failed at building an organization that could identify and develop highly talented prospects for draft and international signing. You can sign FA for today and acquire the amateur talent for 3-5 years from now, if you have a solid organization. Middleton's emphasis was on developing from withn, especially pitching. MacPhail/Klentak failed to accomplish the goal. Spendiing to the salary cap should have made their job easier, by providing the cover of enough FA vets not to have miserable seasons. This is on Klentak and what he failed to build. He also preferred trades to FA signings.

[zambonir]

They made the commitment, it's just that their plans - including some underwhelming drafts and the attrition of nearly every player earmarked to be part of the rebuild - failed.

Including picking many of the wrong players when they did decide to add vets. Granted vets are inherently injury/performance risks, but if they'd made different choices from Santana, Arrieta, Robertson and McCutchen they might have had more success. Santana was actually the best of them but led to the worst trade. Instead of Cutch we could have had Brantley. Instead of Robertson, Miller, though relievers are more of a crapshoot. The Arrieta deal was fine in and of itself but when the team failed to produce enough quality elsewhere in the line-up while he had a predictable decline he became a financial burden.

But none of this means you stop signing veterans. Last year they were too impatient, and now we can say a lot of money was wasted, but other than having back a few of the guys they traded, nothing would be different. The major league team would still be bad and the system would still be bad.

[flyers19rw]

This entire concept of taking a year off to organize things while they haven't hired the person(s) who are going to be in charge long term is silly on many levels. If that's what's going to go down, there are a lot of players that a need to be moved including Harper. In fact, I can't see Bryce tolerating this situation in the middle of his best playing years and demanding to be moved. If player evaluation was bad, and it was/is, why would anyone trust Klentak's gang which made these bad evaluations to do it for the players to be acquired? Either Middleton and the Buck brothers have fallen off of the rails or there is a smoke screen out there as the organization makes moves for new blood. There is no good reason for a club to take off two seasons of work unless it's the cash poor ones like the Marlins. My call is that the Phillies will tab new leadership to work with Barber and Girardi by Thanksgiving.

[zambonir]

I think you're underestimating the reality of things, even if it feels like an excuse. Baseball is not normal. Life is not normal. The economy is not normal. Both the economic reasons and logistical reasons for not being able to make a huge new franchise-changing hire are completely legitimate, and to proceed otherwise would just increase the odds of an already suspect group making another poor decision.

Now, the fact that they arrived at this point, and were especially ill-suited to adjust to baseball in the age of COVID (both during the season and now) is yet another failing of a floundering franchise. That they didn't make this change last off-season was also an obvious mistake. That MacPhail is still in charge of all of it seems like an even bigger one, because if you just get rid of him then whoever you hire tomorrow is in charge. But these are your Philadelphia Phillies.

Certainly it would still be preferable if they could find someone by the end of the year, but they're not going to find someone in four weeks, which is when business really starts to happen, and they can't hire a new GM and then put a new president over him, it has to happen in the opposite order.

Look, they probably just need Rice to make sure MacPhail and Gillick know how to mute on Zoom

[Squire]

The qualifying offer number is $18.9 million. I'd offer both Realmuto and Gregorius.

[bkeich]

The qualifying offer number is $18.9 million. I'd offer both Realmuto and Gregorius.

Well, Realmuto is a no brainer. You dream he would accept, but there is 0% chance.

Gregorius, I think is also a no brainer, but of course the team is trying to cut its losses. Since this is a throw away season (apparently), they might decide to either play some minor leaguer or sign a cheap alternative. I hope not, If nothing else, we need the draft pick desperately. Really, really desperately.

[Philsmania]

Extending the QO to Gregorius is no-lose in my opinion. Worst case, you keep him for $18.9 million and if the team flops, he's trade deadline fodder, you lose him, you get a pick.