Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[allentown]

For that he has paid as high of a price as any other MLB player.

Yes. And one suspects that to some extent he is being sacrificed, because the Phillies and MLB so seriously mishandled and under-reacted to the (equally?) bad Brett Myers case. But, Herrera has paid the price and should be allowed back. Whether he's good enough to make the team on opening day or later in the season is another story, but he clearly has paid the price for his actions and should not pay an extra price for the Phillies prior laxity.

We don't at all know that Herrera's actions were 4 or 5 times worse than Urias's. We just know that he has been punished more severely. If his actions were more horrible, that has not been publicly disclosed. The Phillies seem to be acting in service of organizational perceived need, not justice.

Getting paid is not a second chance. it is a legal requirement. The penalty imposed by MLB has been served. The justice system imposed no penalty. Colin Kapaernik got $ from the NFL, but his career was killed, Same with Herrera. Justice and fairness are not dependent on your last batting average prior to suspension. Many players bounce back from a bad season. If the Phillies didn't want to allow him to play, to have a real second chance, then they should have cut him and allowed him to catch on elsewhere.

[zambonir]

Myers was a million years ago. Times have changed. They've changed even since Chapman and Osuna were traded. Most of the people making decisions for the team then aren't even alive.

Herrera getting paid was less a legal requirement as a collectively bargained one - both sides agreed to follow the rules of the joint agreement. Had his actions been bad enough, he could have been suspended for the rest of his career. Obviously that was not the case, but the severity of the suspension he actually did get, relative to others in MLB history, suggests we don't know as much as MLB's investigation found, and the Phillies treating him as radioactive also suggests that.

I agree he should have probably been released. The Phillies have not continued to hold up their end of the bargain, by clearly being fixated on the incident and his behavior rather than "baseball reasons." But that was almost impossible to prove until now, when the GM began admitting as much.

I'm sure Hererra and his agent are well aware that A) filing a grievance would get them de facto blackballed by MLB and B) none of the other teams would have invited him to spring training anyway. His best shot is still the tiniest one the Phillies have been willing to give him (even if that had meant playing in Clearwater all last year).

But he didn't just have one bad season. It was the better part of two seasons (though he wound up being suspended for most of the second one) from a player who has gotten worse every season of his career offensively, and fell off a cliff defensively too. I think if they thought he could play they might have weathered the PR storm last year. They actually could have used him last year when the injuries hit (and he could have been called up to the alternate training site at any time).

[allentown]

Most of the people making decisions for the team then aren't even alive.

But, it is not a question of who the manager or GM are, the article which began this discussion makes this very clear "Phillies president David Dombrowski indicated that Odubel Herrera could go to spring training as a non-roster invitee. A team source said the final decision was up to managing partner John Middleton." Ownership has overlap. And the ownership families were embarrassed by the media and public outcry over how the team handled Myers.

Of course paying Herrera was a legal requirement. He and the Phillies have a contract. The players and owners have a contract. Contracts are legally enforceable. The Phillies haven't been paying Herrera out of the goodness of their hearts. That there is some offense for which MLB could suspend a player for life doesn't change the fact that Herrera did not commit such an offense or that the Phillies haven't limited their punishment to that determined under the rules of baseball. that you admit that Herrera would be blackballed by all teams if he dared to challenge the Phillies actions through baseball's contractually-provided grievance procedure simply highlights the injustice of this and establishes the close link to how the NFL treated Kaepernick, in order to appease President Trump. Fairness or Justice have nothing to do with this, nor does Herrera's current baseball ability.

[zambonir]

I doubt the Myers situation ever got higher than Monty though, and was mostly mishandled by the people below him. At the time it happened, they weren't embarassed, I'm not sure there was even that much of a public outcry. The only controversy I recall at the time was the fact that he was allowed to pitch so quickly, and it didn't last long. Ultimately public opinion was that the legal system and Myers' wife both decided he was innocent. He got more blowback for threatening a reporter, and then ultimately his apparent issues (and his wife's as well) led to a messy break-up with the team later.

I agree Herrera's being treated poorly, but I also think his baseball ability - and his salary - still have a lot to do with it. If he didn't have that contract he likely would have been released under the current circumstances, and if he'd never been arrested but had continued to play like he had played in 2019, he would have been non-tendered. In either case he might have also had a chance to catch on with a new team (or go to Asia, for that matter). It is still surprising to me that they didn't try to negotiate a buyout, it has happened before and still would have been very much in Herrera's favor (i.e. the Phillies would have had to pay 80% or more. They could have also worked out some deferrals. That wound up breaking the team's way with COVID though).

Both sides are simply exercising their legal and contractual rights. Herrera still gets paid and is still on the roster and is plainly not one of the 26 best players in the organization. Dombrowki's statement does violate the joint agreement though, whereas Klentak was very disciplined about maintaining the fiction that it was only about baseball. It's impossible to remove either circumstance from the situation.

And I'm not buying the Kap comparison. If all the MLB teams want to blackball people who commit domestic violence that's okay by me, and very different than cracking down on free speech and unpopular politicial positions. Three years ago Herrera, Mickey Callaway and Jared Porter all would still have jobs. That's actually progress. A lot of women need to get a lot more first chances (i.e. not be victimized to being with) before I care much about second chances for their abusers.

I think Taudawg's position is probably the most right one: Herrera should only be in major league spring training if he has a shot to make the team. And he doesn't, so they should let him go, but they won't. I still think it's fine if they bring him in to get him ready to be the best AAA player he can be, but I'm not sure they'd seriously consider giving him a chance at playing time, let alone a call-up or taxi squad spot, either.

[DurhamBull]

Herrera should only be in major league spring training if he has a shot to make the team. And he doesn't, so they should let him go, but they won't.

If the Phils release Herrera, they best they can hope for is that some other team picks him up and pays him major league minimum, which is that much less that the Phils have to pay him, yes? At the same time, they may be allowing a competitor to pick up a valuable asset on the cheap (even if that's a very long shot). Ethical concerns aside, do I understand the financial and contractual obligations correctly?

[andyb]

I think COVID is the only reason Herrera is still technically with the team. Last year they got to pro-rate his salary so they saved money. If he is released before a season's games get cancelled they'd have to pay him 100%.

Herrera should ask for his release and sign an agreement to accept pro-rated pay if games get cancelled.

[zambonir]

If the Phils release Herrera, they best they can hope for is that some other team picks him up and pays him major league minimum, which is that much less that the Phils have to pay him, yes? At the same time, they may be allowing a competitor to pick up a valuable asset on the cheap (even if that's a very long shot). Ethical concerns aside, do I understand the financial and contractual obligations correctly?

Yes, I think if he was released and actually made a major league roster for the entire season, the Phillies could get back that $600 K or so, against both the $10,000,000+ they owe him in real money and the $6.750,000 or so in luxury tax calculation. But he'd probably only get a minor league deal, and even if he got added to someone's 40 might still wind up in the minors (whether all season or part of the season).

The best case for the Phillies would still be to offload a few million in a deadline trade, but in order to do that they would either be taking back another team's big contract or including a prospect to make it happen. If such a deal allowed them to add a big player (assuming they are a good team) might still be worth it.

We never really got to see what the Phillies were going to do last year - release him? Assign him to LV? Bury him in Clearwater? - so perhaps this year we will. Whether or not he spends three weeks on the big league field instead of the minor league field isn't really that big a deal in the end. He did talk to the media last spring once while at minor league spring training. and it wasn't really a huge story.

If they put him on the taxi squad he'd also be kind of buried, assuming media still won't be on the field or in clubhouses this year.

[Taudawg]

Unless he wins the starting centerfield job, he needs to be released. He will be a distraction if not a disruption everywhere, but actually less on the Phillies. Everywhere else he will be the story, the center of attention, plus taking development time away from others. If he wins the CF job, that will likely mean he is playing like 2016-17 Odubel and not 18-19 Odubel. I am onboard with letting him have a shot. I think it is a long shot. I don't think he is center of attention in the bigs...maybe a big story for a few days or even weeks, but if he is performing, and they are winning, people will start to focus on the winning.

I also think the front office needs to meet with some of team leaders and get their input. If guys like Cutch and Harper welcome a second chance for Odubel, those opinions will influence the rest of the clubhouse.

[zambonir]

This was talked about in one of the stories this off-season. Supposedly the clubhouse has mixed feelings. Not clear if that was due to what he did, or if he was not beloved by some teammates before then. Of course very few of them played with him for more than two months. In any case, that due diligence should be done by now.

I just don't think your scenario is possible, is the problem. There's simply no way he could play enough - or do enough - in spring training to win the CF job. Even if he got enough playing time to amass 40-50 ABs, which is unlikely given there are already three players competing for playing time in CF, as well as Moniak, it wouldn't be enough to option Haseley or prompt the Phillies to trade Quinn. If he gets the invite, at best he'd be battling with Matt Joyce for the last roster spot (which might have otherwise gone to Maton but since Miller can play all the IF positions, they have options).More likely, the goal would be to weather the PR hit, play decently and then report to AAA or the taxi squad and hope for an opportunity.

Of course the other outcome is he hits .180 in 20 ABs, which wouldn't mean anything either, but it would be another reason for the Phillies to justify releasing him.

[David_Criss]

Is Miller the last move? With no DH, Choo is no longer really needed. Bedrosian and Rosenthal are still out there. Are there any other moves we should hope for? JBJ still out there, too but will cost to much in money and years.

[Philsmania]

Bedrosian and Rosenthal are still out there. Are there any other moves we should hope for? JBJ still out there, too but will cost to much in money and years.

One Cole Hamels is also out there though he would be a longshot to make it unless they are going with a six man rotation. I could see Middleton convincing DD to give him a shot as a favor.

[zambonir]

Cole probably can't even get a major league deal at this point but still probably unlikely. Not enough money left to sign anyone else. They were clearly never going to sign a second-relief pitcher for bigger money, Kintzler is it.

[andyb]

If I were Cole I might consider going into the "older pitcher 2/3 of a season" mode now. Take your time to get healthy and give someone 20 expensive starts. Roger Clemons did this late in his career. Avoiding cold weather and any COVID training disruptions are probably a good thing for him too this year.

[David_Criss]

Travis Jankowski signs minor league deal.

[andyb]

Local ties like Gosselin. Platoon OF with some speed and can play CF in a pinch. Probably a good player to have in AAA and insurance against Haseley and Quinn getting hurt.

[Taudawg]

I don't expect much playing time for him, but Jankowski is most likely the best defensive CF in the organization above AA, and perhaps all levels.

[zambonir]

Not great news for a certain former All-Star CF, I reckon.

I really do wonder if that is the reason why the Phillies haven't announced their full list of ST invites. At this point nearly every other team has, even as additions still get made. Anyone who actually is reporting on Wednesday or Thursday has to have already started the process. And even though position players have more time, with COVID it's not like you can just show up and check into any old hotel or condo.

[andyb]

40-man roster notes:

A Phillies 40-man roster rundown as a competitive spring camp commences

Still waiting on a more complete training camp roster. Hopefully we will know more today (or tomorrow since they actually report). COVID protocols are certainly slowing this down. One note. Only $142K of Hale's deal is guaranteed so his contract is not much of a hindrance to a DFA is somebody beats him out. I am still expecting 14 pitchers and 12 position players on the eventual roster.

[Taudawg]

I thought there was a rule limiting the number of pitchers on 26 man roster to 13. Did that change?

[andyb]

The rule was waived for this season. Not sure what they will do in the future but it was part of the COVID changes for 2020. One also does not have to make a 40-man roster move to promote somebody to take the place of a player on a COVID list. That is likely incentive to keep some of these players around on the taxi squad or AAA roster this year.

I think the Phillies will decide to not have the 5th bench spot go to Chatham, Maton, Jankowski, or Joyce. At least during most of the year. Short 4-5 inning starts or even a 6-man rotation will mean more bullpen innings to fill. Kingery on the roster without a starting position does give us lots of flexibility. And Miller can fake most of the positions also though we probably should not put him at SS too much.

Bench is Knapp, Miller, 2 of Haseley/Quinn/Kingery (with the other player starting).