Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[David_Criss]

Guessing the rotation is for the most part set with the signing of Moore. But with approx. 15 million left to spend what do you do?

A. Sign Gregorious and a non-closer bullpen arm (Kintzler, Petit, O’day, Kela, Soria type)

B. Sign Villar and add another $3 to $6 million starter (Fiers, Sanchez, Porcello, Richards, Walker, Hill, Foltynewicz type) and a (Rosenthal, Colome, Melancon, Greene type)

C. Try to trade Haseley/Moniak to Cleveland for Rosario and sign a starter and bullpen piece ala signing Villar and let Kingery/Herrera/Quinn battle it out for CF

D. Sign Wong and a (Rosenthal, Colome, Melancon, Greene type) moving Segura back to SS

E. Sign Villar or trade for Rosario and sign Gardner to play CF and a bullpen arm?

Do you bring back Workman, Phelps, Parker or Robertson on low end incentive laden deals?

[Taudawg]

If I had to choose from one of these five, I'm going with A. The Phillies were the 5th ranked offense last year with Didi and the starting pitchers ranked 10th. These are the strengths of this team. The places the Phillies need to improve is the bullpen and on defense. None of these helps the defense (maybe a little with Wong), so... They've worked on the bullpen, but not enough in my opinion. I really think another LH hitter with some pop changes the way our lineup looks and functions.

[zambonir]

Ian Hamilton the first 40-man casualty (with JT added back).

[Taudawg]

Hamilton is an odd choice. At least he had some upside, throws gas. I would have returned Holder or DFA'd Quezada. They may be next in line though.

[zambonir]

Been a lot of other pitchers added to the mix since they claimed him (which also happened before we had a President and GM. Holder too, still hard to imagine him sticking once they settle the IF picture, especially if Dombrowski likes Chatham).

I assume they will still sign one more reliever and that means it will be hard to keep many others (besides the obvious locks) who don't have options. I would think David Hale's days are still numbered too, just not necessarily right now.

(Hmmh apparently Hamilton has an option himself, so one imagines he'll get claimed.)

[andyb]

I think they hope he clears waivers. Most teams have 40-man rosters that are pretty full at this point. That logic probably applies to the next 2 cuts also (Quezada, maybe Irvin, Hale). We obviously lost Arano, but that is the cost of business these days.

I would endorse upping the roster a bit (42?). Would cost a small amount of money and would also lead to more roadblocks for blocked prospects, but the upside is that the 26-man roster plus the historic churn in pitchers almost demands it. The players like Hamilton that might benefit would be better off with a 40-man pay raise and a more stable environment potentially.

[andyb]

But with approx. 15 million left to spend what do you do?

I like options A and C. Getting somebody who belongs at SS is important. No idea if the price for Rosario would be that low, so the Didi option is more likely.

They are still $36 million under the tax threshold. I still think we end up $15-$20 million under, but that would still allow $15-$21 more rather than just $15 million. Can squeeze a LH OF reserve in the $2 million range into that budget potentially, hopefully on a minor league deal if they don't choose to get a CF.

[zambonir]

Yeah the 42-man roster seems like it would be more useful than the 28-man roster, and a bit of concession to the players too.

Can squeeze a LH OF reserve in the $2 million range into that budget potentially, hopefully on a minor league deal if they don't choose to get a CF.

How 'bout Brad Miller? (Not on a minor league deal, obviously). Heck, he might even be able to play CF though it's been a long time, he's more of a 3B/LF/2B than a SS/defensive OF.

[andyb]

I'd be fine with Miller as the LH caddy for Cutch. If we got a DH approved before Spring Training I'd probably want somebody better, but with the current roster we just want somebody to get like 2 starts a week and they can be targeted to right-handed pitching. Of course there is the argument of whether a good defensive player like Haseley and a 740 OPS would be better than a mediocre defensive player like Miller and a 775-800 OPS.

[zambonir]

Well sure, if it's Miller vs. Jay Bruce I think I like Miller's defense and versatility. If it had been Miller vs. Joc Pederson give me the bigger bat. And if Miller gets Holder off the roster and keeps Chatham in AAA that's probably a net-plus.

But a bat-only guy (like some of the people below) is probably unnecessary as Cutch, JT, Segura (assuming we sign Didi) and even Haseley would all get turns. Not to mention Bryce, and Didi himself.

What Phillies could look like with or without a DH in 2021

if the DH does remain in the National League, there are some decent free-agent options available to the Phillies, such as Cruz, Shin-Soo Choo, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Duvall, Yoenis Cespedes, Brad Miller and Jay Bruce

[andyb]

If there were a DH I might wonder if Choo is interested. I have heard nothing about him in any of the rumors and he might be interested in the long side of a DH platoon role. He certainly does not need the money any more and there might not be a great contract out there for him.

Not sure Miller is any better defensively than Bruce in LF. Bruce actually has good instincts and a legit OF arm. Miller is certainly more versatile and younger.

The one thing I am wondering about with all the chatter this week is what the Phillies think of Kingery. His stock is clearly way down. They are shying away from any Segura trade talk and imply they would want Wong if we moved Segura back to SS. I have nothing against Wong. I just wonder if DD is not a Kingery fan.

[zambonir]

Well yeah they pretty obviously view Kingery as a super-sub but I also think he could end up getting the most starts of anyone in CF if he hits. I think they'd love to sign Didi and trade Segura but they'd have to pick up too much of Segura's salary to do so. I don't think Dombrowski and Fuld coming on board really changed anything though. Plan A was and is Didi with Segura at 2B and Kingery bench/CF. Just a little surprising that Plan B wouldn't put Kingery in the 2B mix but I think the hesitancy is combination of not being sure what he is and needing him in the OF.

[andyb]

From these various rumblings I am not sure they see Kingery as a guaranteed supersub. It sounds like they wouldn't bat an eye to send him down to the minors for a bit. That was not an option last year when he was struggling. Might be an option this year.

[zambonir]

Well, that would be a twist. An expensive twist, too. I kind of doubt it, but until they resolve the SS and an additional OF, who knows?

[andyb]

I would have made that move last year if there were actually minor leagues to send him to. When Bohm was recalled Kingery was not really needed and could have used the stint to clear his head and get completely healthy.

No idea what they think now, but they are clearly operating like they don't think he is a starter. And they are adding other middle infield reserves (Chatham, Holder) that would make his bench role less necessary. They also have not really talked about him as a serious CF replacement.

Personally I think they are ignoring lots of evidence from the minors and 2019 that he can be a productive player in favor of a small sample from 2020, but remember there is a new boss in town (DD).

[Austinfan]

I think they just don't know with Kingery, and probably hope to have a real spring training (vaccine permitting) and see if he can get back on track. You hope he's not a long-hauler.

[zambonir]

I think a lot of that is below Dombrowki's pay grade though. He's still relying on Rice, and now Fuld, and the team's internal scouting reports in general. And I still think Holder doesn't stick (and if he does it's for the bottom of the bench where Gosselin and Larry Walker started last year) and Chatham goes to AAA (if they really love Chatham why even talk about getting another 2B)?

At the end of the day Kingery's gonna get his 4-500 ABs.

And yeah it is probably not the worst idea to have a back-up plan if he ends up having trouble breathing or maintaining stamina.

Whatever they do could also end up being a 3B back-up plan if Hoskins starts the year on the DL too.

[julio]

RHP Cole Irvin traded to A’s

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) January 30, 2021

[zambonir]

And now they still have to free up one more spot (Moore plus Didi). Got more for him than Arano and Garlick (who actually cost us something) at least!

I wonder if it will be another pitcher or if they'll cut lose an IF now that Didi's back? They may want to hold off in case there's still any sliver of an attempt to trade Segura.

[allentown]

Good to have Didi back, although one year preferable. I guess they got year 2 for $9 mill, as opposed to simply giving him a QO. IMHO, this should be it for adding position players who cost anything -- time to focus fairly strictly upon pitchers and position players we can pick up on waivers and minor league deals.