Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

el-pietro 2021-01-27 21:34:34 UTC #1004

Sure, they've got four lottery tickets, but the odds aren't great on any of them idividually. I still have some hope in Kingery, and I think Hasely can be a big leaguer but I don't think hes ever an above average starter.

zambonir 2021-01-27 22:14:11 UTC #1005

But who are these "kids" who deserve a chance in CF?

Moniak is, if not a bust, a guy who almost certainly needs a full season in AAA, and you're still playing long odds that he's anything.

Quinn may have more mileage left on him than his age suggests given his actual games played, but he's probably not a starting CF either, especially with defense that isn't as good as you'd think it would be given his physical ability. The odds of him staying healthy enough to find his bat remain low, if he can even find his bat at all. Best to accept him for what he is until his salary rises.

Haseley deserves more of a look even if the previous regime - and most of MLB - has already decided his ceiling is 4th OF, but that's a straw man, because he wasn't allowed to be the high end of the platoon last year, and he's not likely to be the starting CF this year. They are either going to sign an OF who takes 200 ABs away from him in LF or sign an OF who takes 200 ABs away from him in CF, so it doesn't really matter which one happens.

I still don't see how they sign a SS, a starter and a reliever anyway, let alone an OF. ElP's Didi, JBJ and Hamels scenario is still $26 million, which would take them to last year's payroll, and close to the CBT. Still seems unlikely they do that.

andyb 2021-01-27 22:26:08 UTC #1006

One of the reasons to leave $15-$20 million of room below the competitive balance threshold is to go out and get a player potentially at the deadline if they think it will make a difference.

CF is just less of a priority than SS because we have no young player likely to get better there (assuming that Kingery really is a mediocre SS because of his arm). In CF we at least have lottery tickets that could plausibly cobble together 2-3 WAR with some combination of defense and baserunning. I'd rather sign a LH OF that can spell Cutch at times. That does not need to cost a lot of money.

If we assume they have $20 million to spend, here is how they could do it:
SS (Didi) - $14 million
SP (Hamels?) - $4 million
RP - $2 million
OF - minor league deal

SS (Villar) - $3 million
CF (Bradley) - $6 million
SP - $8 million
RP - $3 million

I guess both options have their arguments. I still think I go with Didi and plug other holes inexpensively. The $8 million starter in option 2 may not be that great.

zambonir 2021-01-27 22:53:41 UTC #1007

Heck, I'd settle for $10 million under the CBT. Maybe we get there, maybe not.

It's another reason they might not release Herrera. If they were to swing a deadline deal for an expensive player at least they could try and put him in a deal, so long as the prospect cost didn't go up much.

Jon Lester just signed for $5 million. Darren O'Day for less than $2 million. There are still gonna be options at the low end. I wonder what the Mets are paying Loup, and if we want Alvarez back.

zambonir 2021-01-28 06:48:28 UTC #1008

Maybe they are willing to spend. I would tend to agree they should be.

The thing I find most fascinating is the interest in 2B, tbh. Is that an unwillingness to commit to Kingery as an everyday player, or a statement about how much they think they need him off the bench and in CF? For that matter is Segura actually a better defensive SS than Kingery?

DurhamBull 2021-01-28 13:02:34 UTC #1009

Kingery wasn't even mentioned in that article, which seems odd.

Taudawg 2021-01-28 13:37:26 UTC #1010

I suspect the Phillies don't see Kingery as an everyday shortstop. Granted the sample sizes are fairly small since he has played all over, but Kingery's range at SS appears below average. Stats suggest his range is around average at 2b, 3b and CF. Segura, while better at 2b, is a better choice to play SS if you have to choose he and Kingery. Segura's fielding at SS isn't much different than Didi. Hence, the interest in Wong - Wong at 2b, Segura at SS and Kingery in CF (platoon maybe). I'm connecting a lot of random dots, spitballing some.

andyb 2021-01-28 14:43:13 UTC #1011

Bowden's best remaining free agents. He predicts the contract but does not say which team other than listing the best fits for each player. Those with a Phillies on the best fits list are:

Gregorius - 2/24
Rosenthal - 2/16
Colome - 2/16
Melancon - 2/14
Greene - 2/12
Bradley - 3/36

He did not have Wong (1/9) as a best fit. He really thinks all these relievers will get 2 year deals. I'd be happy with Didi at 2/24. I am really scared of Rosenthal blowing up again and Melancon being too old, so Colome and Greene would be the relievers at that price that I might want. No way I want JBJ for 3/36. Can't believe his offers are that rich either.

fish 2021-01-28 16:40:56 UTC #1012

It 'feels' like the Phils may have been trying to set themselves up for next year's free agent class, but if that were true then they'd have to blow past the payroll tax limit in a big way, which I can't imagine they do. I don't see anywhere they can trim payroll to make space without trading core players. Losing McCutchen's 15 mil helps, and maybe they could trade Segura and save a few million- beyond that any bullpen salaries coming off the books have to be replaced, and other guys are getting raises.

andyb 2021-01-28 17:23:02 UTC #1013

Some rumors today that the Reds are trying to get Amed Rosario. I think the Reds and the A's are our biggest competition for Didi and they seem to be shying away. The Phillies could get a bit of a bargain here potentially, though I bet Didi really wants the second year to have some stability. I don't think that is really a problem for the Phillies. It is not like Stott is any sort of certainty to stay at SS and if he does and competes for the job in 2022 it might be a nice problem to have.

zambonir 2021-01-28 18:05:51 UTC #1014

Cutch plus Herrera opens up $23 in CBT room and $30 million in real cash. Velasquez and Neris will both probably be gone. I don't think they are preparing for a shopping spree, but they'll be able to sign one big free agent. If they sign Didi for two years they may as well just focus on that being an OF, especially if Stott is really in the picture.

Of course if this season is a flop, anything could happen. They might have to white flag it and trade Wheeler/Nola, or just move on from Hoskins and/or Kingery before Rhys gets expensive (and if Kingery doesn't live up to the fatter end of his deal).

It's probably better for the Phillies to give Didi the two-year deal he suggests than $15 million for one. Man, imagine if Didi had had the QO attached, not that he would have turned it down unless his agent's read on the market was worse than Klentak's.

andyb 2021-01-28 18:12:16 UTC #1015

There is also a real possibility that the CBT threshold will jump by a large amount ($20 million?). Pre-pandemic the revenue increases justified that. Now the situation has changed, but I believe the threshold will increase substantially in the next agreement.

Whether the Phillies could spend $220 to $230 million given their own cash flow is a different question. They will certainly have the room to add a big free agent or expensive traded player if they want to.

Philly_s_Best 2021-01-28 18:20:26 UTC #1016

Rather they go all in on Bauer knowing Cutch and Herrera are coming off and they should be able to offload Segura as well after the season. Roll with Kingery and Segura this year in the middle infield. Still think Kingery is a gamer and every day 2nd baseman IMO

zambonir 2021-01-28 20:01:42 UTC #1017

They can't commit to an expensive multi-year deal this year, let alone outbid the Mets or Dodgers. I also think they just don't want anything to do with Bauer. I think it'd be super-fun myself, and maybe Dombrowski is less likely to care, but he's a real wild card. They are saying he might take a 1 or 2 year deal but if he does it will be for mega $.

We better hope Kingery is that good, but we still don't know. Segura's not going to be easy to trade either, Phils will still end up picking up half his salary probably. In any case, it seems the Phillies don't view either as being good enough at SS, especially next to Bohm, and Segura also prefers not to play there.

el-pietro 2021-01-28 20:15:51 UTC #1018

zambonir:

fish:

It 'feels' like the Phils may have been trying to set themselves up for next year's free agent class, but if that were true then they'd have to blow past the payroll tax limit in a big way, which I can't imagine they do. I don't see anywhere they can trim payroll to make space without trading core players. Losing McCutchen's 15 mil helps, and maybe they could trade Segura and save a few million- beyond that any bullpen salaries coming off the books have to be replaced, and other guys are getting raises.
Cutch plus Herrera opens up $23 in CBT room and $30 million in real cash. Velasquez and Neris will both probably be gone. I don't think they are preparing for a shopping spree, but they'll be able to sign one big free agent. If they sign Didi for two years they may as well just focus on that being an OF, especially if Stott is really in the picture.

There aren't many great outfield options available in Free Agency in 2022. Michael Conforto who will be 29 and is projected for 3.3 wins in 2021 by ZIPS looks to be the best option by a significant margin. After that its guys like 33 year old Starlin Marte, 34 year old Tommy Pham or 34 year old AJ Pollock. Honestly Cutch compares favourably to a lot of the the 2022 OF Free agents.

If they want to get a big name/money free agent then it almost has to be an IF. You have José Ramírez, Franciso Lindor, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, as well as some middle value options like Simmons, Bryant, Baez, Kyle Seager, Profar or Starlin Castro. Obviously some of those guys won't be available by the time free agency rolls around but there are a lot of options there. If they think they can get someone from the top of that list then I'm all in but I'd prefer the known quantity in Didi on a 2-3 year deal now to waiting a year for say Semien, Simmons, Baez or Profar.

They could spend it on pitching, though its mostly older aces who will certainly be past their best in Greinke, Verlander, Kluber and Scherzer as well as mid rotation at best guys like Stroman, Morton and Cueto.

If they want to go crazy Freddie Freeman is scheduled to be a FA next year. He can't get on base against the Phils if hes batting for the Phils.

Taudawg 2021-01-28 20:24:25 UTC #1019

They can try to complete in 2021 and still have eyes on 2022 at the same time. They need to start thinking like the A's and the Rays, but with a higher payroll. Everyone is tradable if the right deal comes along and players should be traded if possible when their value is highest. That said, I would think Harper, Realmuto, Bohm, Nola and Wheeler are untouchable. This is the core for the next three/four years at least. Should they fall out of contention in 2021, and if Hoskins and Efflin are having good years, they should be moved to maximize the return. Both are going to get expensive. If Didi signs a 2 year deal, and Stott moves along quickly, trade Hoskins, move Bohm to 1b and play Stott at 3b. With the core costing 100 mil a season, they need to avoid the big ticket free agents as part of the plan.

andyb 2021-01-28 20:30:03 UTC #1020

I am less worried about the lack of OF free agents in 2022. Lots of our players are potential LF candidates. Stott for instance or even Bohm if Stott is better at 3B. Bohm is not fast, but is a better athlete than Hoskins and some of his ball transfer issues in the infield would not be a problem in the OF. We also might have Moniak and Muzziotti in the mix for 2022.

I am more worried about the system not really having too many great starting pitching candidates, especially if we make Morales our next closer.

zambonir 2021-01-28 20:34:10 UTC #1021

Time will tell. I'm not sure Stott is even seen as a 3B (2B more likely if he's not a SS). And most of all, while every player is different, after Kingery and Haseley I see no reason to think he's going to get all the way from High A (a level he has yet to play) to the majors in two seasons.

If things go well this year they will have options, including trades (with Marchan now their best chip). If not, I don't think you stop at Hoskins or Eflin. You gotta trade Wheeler before he starts to decline (think Lee, Halladay, Arrieta), and possibly Nola too (but at that point even JT becomes available, if you're looking at 2-3 seasons of non-contention).

One frustrating thing about this team is they have a surplus of the two things that are surplus throughout baseball: RH-hitting infielders in general (especially if Bohm doesn't stick at 3B) and 2B. Even if Hoskins maintains his optimal level of production he's not going to have much value once his salary crosses $10 million. Even Bryant's value next year is questionable.

Perhaps Didi is our 2B or 3B next year - the move is certainly gonna come for him eventually - and we sign one of those SSs.

Taudawg 2021-01-28 20:58:35 UTC #1022

If you get to the point you are trading your two best pitchers, we are talking about a full tear-down and rebuild. Wheeler is signed until age 34 and Nola is only 28 now. Lee and Halladay were very good pitchers at age 34. Arrieta should have never been signed, everyone but the Phillies passed on him.

I agree Marchan is a really good trade chip. Rodolfo Duran is good defensive catcher and should hit enough to serve as the backup when the Knapp run ends.

zambonir 2021-01-28 21:06:10 UTC #1023

Well, you're right, they were both good at 34 but not for one minute longer (Lee crashed out completely, Halladay was never the same after his initial injury despite going two more seasons).

If the team is good, sure, hope Wheeler remains at least a middle-rotation guy, and extend Nola if he'll do that within reason. But if they can't win in 2022 or 2023 there's little point in having them and little point in losing Nola for just a draft pick (if that system even exists).

If they try and fail to make the playoffs for another three years - which would be six years total - the next phase will be even longer/more painful. And if they go four years without any success built around a core of Nola, Harper and JT (having had two so far) it's probably time for a new core.