Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[zambonir]

That depends on the DH a little bit, I'd think.

Last year's bench mix (for the most part, once Bohm came up, and calling Quinn the starting CF since he got the most starts) was:

Kingery, Haseley, Knapp, Walker, Gosselin, Bruce

This year's bench, currently, would be:

Kingery, Haseley, Knapp, Holder

So sure you can always find another Walker or Gosselin but Bruce was on an $11 million deal (even if we weren't paying), and neither Walker nor Gosselin wound up being good (though Gosselin certainly had a run). I think they still need one bench bat on a guaranteed contract, especially since Hoskins may also not be ready right away.

And despite thinking otherwise, I suppose Holder could make the team unless Chatham or Maton beat him out. And if not, it will be some AAAA guy.

It would all change if they could trade Segura and give Kingery 2B but neither thing seems very likely right now.

[julio]

FYI, the Irvin to Oakland deal was evidently just a sale - e.g., "for cash considerations."

Phillies trade a pitcher to Oakland to free up a roster spot

[andyb]

That is a bench that needs someone with a little power. Not saying it should be Bruce, but someone like Bruce that might be a bit better with the glove. Choo on a 1-year deal would make a lot of sense.

[zambonir]

Yeah with or without a DH you need a bat, DH just makes it more useful when Cutch isn't in the field.

It shouldn't be that expensive. I also don't think they're looking to go higher than $3 million on another bullpen piece. Didi just failed to get a raise (just a second year), Alvarez probably won't get one either.

I think the only remaining question would be whether they want to add another SP but since Moore has a guaranteed contract I would assume not. Another minor league invite or two, sure.

[Taudawg]

The DH should be Cutch. His defensive metrics declined exponentially in 2020. He will be another year removed from ACL injury, but also another year older.

[zambonir]

But the Phillies don't have anyone better (plus you know they will spread the DH ABs around again because JT, Bryce and Didi will need breaks as well, and hopefully Knapp will hit).

80 starts in LF is probably right for Cutch, with Haseley/Quinn/Kingery and whoever they get to replace Bruce taking the others.

Had they signed Schwarber or Pederson, then we'd be talking.

[julio]

The DH should be Cutch. His defensive metrics declined exponentially in 2020. He will be another year removed from ACL injury, but also another year older.

I've been as enthusiastic about Andrew McCutchen as any phan...so it pains me to say this, but...

Cutch will be playing at age 34 this season. That suggests further decline is possible... even probable.

Last season, his OBP, at .324, was below his career average (.376) by .050. That's not trivial. If that OBP does not rebound in 2021, McCutchen is no longer a premier leadoff hitter. For reference, Phillies who (in regular or semi-regular play) had higher OBP than Cutch in 2020: Harper, Bohm, Hoskins, Realmuto, Segura, Gregorius. In more limited play, add Knapp and Haseley to this list. The only hitters likely to be on the Opening Day roster who put up poorer OBP were Quinn and Kingery.

If Andrew McCutchen is not our leadoff hitter (because he's not getting it done), it makes little sense to keep him in the lineup in left field. He managed an OPS+ of 102 last year - that's really not left-fielder territory, in the absence of a very large OBP.

The complication? There's no obvious left fielder in the organization to replace Cutch. Haseley, Quinn, Moniak? I could see any one of these in CF, if they could deliver an adequate OBP to hit in the 2-hole (or the 8-hole). Haseley...might. Quinn or Moniak probably won't.

But if the top of the order is, say, Segura and Realmuto (or Segura and Hoskins), and we have a CF in the eight-hole, I would really like to see a bigger bat than Cutch in LF - or at the least, a LH-hitting OF who can put up an OPS+ of 110 or better in platoon duty. We don't have that player.

[zambonir]

No team has ever succeeded ignoring the reality of age, and if you go back to the day we signed Cutch, I think multiple people suggested he'd be benched or traded by this point... but it would be worth it for those two great seasons we were going to have with him.

That said, they at least need to find out what an extremely rested and fully healthy McCutchen has. That first year after an injury is always rough. See also Didi's 2019, and it's a reason to worry big-time about Rhys too. And the older you are, the rougher it might be.

But, even in the shortened season, Cutch was two different players. He had a .344 OBP and a 113 OPS+ in September. He was also much better on the road than at home, bizarrely so - but 22 of those 27 games were in September.

So it's possible his rhythm and conditioning will still bounce back, or at least stabilize around there. He's done it before, having looked done in 2016 (but as a much younger player obviously).

As you say - if they had a better LF or a better lead-off hitter they would play him, and if they had more money, they would get one.

[BostonRoss]

I don’t think we should treat McCutchen’s 2020 as if it were a normal full season comparable to other seasons. The biggest difference is that it was a short season, and the effect of the first several games when McCutchen was awful had a disproportionate effect on what seem like full season stats. If you discount his first 10 games, his OPS was .826, and he hit 10 homers in his remaining 47 games. Normally I don’t like to selectively remove a set of results when looking at stats, but it’s important to recognize that these games were his first games back from a serious injury, after an interrupted spring training, during a pandemic, and had a week long interruption. No one thinks he’s the 27 year old McCutchen, but I can’t treat his 2020 stats as part of a progression of seasons.

He’s not good defensively, but at least he’s at a relatively unimportant position. The Phillies successful seasons have always had bad defensive left fielders. In fact, on baseball-reference.com’s list of left fielders rated by JAWS, the 30 left fielders with the worst career dWAR include the regular LF for every Phillies pennant winners (you could even include 1964 since Wes Covington is on the list).

[zambonir]

The Cincinnati Reds are acquiring shortstop Kyle Holder in a trade with the Philadelphia Phillies, sources tell ESPN. Holder, 26, was taken in the Rule 5 draft by the Phillies this year after spending six years in the New York Yankees organization.

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) January 30, 2021

Hey, he could try to win their starting SS job!

[andyb]

It certainly made sense to keep one of the two SS and Chatham is not tied to the Rule 5 and is likely a better hitter. Or we kept Dombrowski's guy over Girardi/Barber's guy.

[zambonir]

Both of those things I'm sure.

Even if Kingery gets 80 starts, it seems like they don't need a back-up middle IF. But we said that last year too. I imagine Gosselin could still turn up in Clearwater and then Allentown.

Either way they're still going to need one more 40-man spot for the bench. They'll probably need Seranthony's for one of the minor league pitching invites.

[Taudawg]

I think Johan Quezada or Mauricio Llovera are next to go. Of course a trade could clear out several roster spots at once.

[zambonir]

They are carrying too many position players, or maybe we've just gotten used to them not having enough position players. But a third catcher, two AAA IFs, two AAA OFs, none of them likely to be on the Opening Day 26 (possiby an IF).

And at some point they have to actually bring these pitchers to spring training before cutting them or nobody will really be competing for a job. But Hamilton may yet clear waivers and perhaps Quesada would too. I would think they will want Llovera in the AAA rotation.

Bradley
Neris
Alvarado (L)
Coonrod
Brogdon
Romero
Hale

Right now Quesada would probably get the last spot, unless Suarez isn't going to be stretched out now that Moore's been signed. Otherwise it's a minor league invite (Feliz, Ynoa). But you're writing more guys in ink than is ideal (i.e. Coonrod, Alavrado and Hale have struggled, Brogdon and Romero are still developing). They definitely still need one more guaranteed guy (Alvarez?) and there will probably be a lot of players who are unable to get guaranteed deals getting into the spring training invite mix late.

[LoneStarPhan]

MLB Issues 154-Game Proposal To Players

[Lucky_Beagle]

per mlbtraderumors...

The Phillies announced that right-handers Hector Rondon and David Paulino have been signed to minor league contracts. Both pitchers will receive invites to the team’s big league Spring Training camp.

[andyb]

Athletic with their first roster projection:

Phillies 26-man roster projection 1.0: Where things stand and upgrades to watch

Right now among position players they have Maton penciled in over Chatham and expect the team to sign a left-handed Brad Miller type.

Pitching is in more flux. They note the need to sign more starting depth to help manage Howard's innings and also to sign someone like Alvarez on a $2.$3 million deal.

I guess the larger news is that all of a sudden it looks like all but 3 or 4 roster positions are set at this point. Maybe they shy away from guys like Maton in favor of older veterans on minor league deals, but there is now a deeper cost of removing arms from the 40-man roster and potentially losing them. So keeping a guy like Maton or using Marchan as the 3rd catcher are just roster-efficient moves.

[zambonir]

Salisbury tweets we have interest in Marwin Gonzalez. Both he and Miller would certainly fit the bill, more of a bat/corner guy but could theoretically stand at SS in a pinch.

If spring training is going to start on time they could do a handshake deal with a pitcher (who knows, maybe it's already done, with Alvarez) and make it official once Seranthony is moved off the 40.

[andyb]

I'd be fine with Gonzalez for a couple of a million, especially if they could finesse a minor league deal. Enough teams are interested that they may not, however. He is a switch hitter and I am guessing they like that on the bench. Probably can't expect more than a 700 OPS these days and SS and 2B might be beyond him except in an emergency. But a versatile guy who is good in the clubhouse is not the worst thing.

[zambonir]

One interesting thing about the Gelb story, he lists Kingery as an OF, and I think all the other writers (Breen, even Winkleman) have continued to stress he's in the CF mix, not just the super-utility role (even if that's what will happen in practice).

Obviously Miller or Marwin could play LF, like Bruce before them. But the more Kingery plays CF the more LF time there should be for Haseley or Quinn too. I forget which article it was that mentioned our LF defense was among the worst in the league last year. Probably can't put much stock in the small sample (RF was also bad and we know how up/down Harper has been) but we also know Cutch isn't going to be plus.