Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[Austinfan]

I'd bring back any RP who can hit 95 and has one credible secondary pitch and see if I can get them healthy and tweak their mechanics, as long as there wasn't much guaranteed money involved.
Don't need to bring in low 90s guys as anything more than camp invites and hope they "shock the nation."

[bkeich]

I like AF's idea of just bringing in some relievers and picking the best, and in normal circumstances I think that would be the best plan from where we are. I think we may have an issue with that approach this year, I am guessing Spring Training is not going to be the normal, relaxed, get-to-show approach of 30+ games after a couple weeks of practice. My guess is that the schedule will get compressed and we are going to start much later and maybe have 10-15 ST games. Just guessing, but that seems likely in my opinion.

That kinda means that ST will just be to get loose and going, not many "roster battles". Bad year to be a guy like Robertson or Hunter who needs to show he is healthy enough to play. They might have to accept they are going to AAA for a month to "prove it".

[andyb]

Every team brings in 10 extra relievers every year. The good teams like Tampa figure out a few that can help them. The big difference though is with young relievers. No matter how much one waxes poetic about them, our crop of young relievers is below average. We really don't have anyone who throws high 90s consistently now that Seranthony has gone down. Brogdon and Romero show some promise, but most teams have several of them also. We just lack relievers that project to the back end at the moment.

So our setup guys close. Our middle relievers become setup men. Our extra arms become middle relievers even though that are not good enough. It is a depth problem. And when things go wrong we get exposed. It is likely not a problem solved by signing 10 guys to minor league deals and hoping for the best.

[andyb]

Phillies considering Anibal Sanchez as 5th starter competition. Seems we are not interested in bringing in anyone better than that at this point though. I wonder if a minor league deal could get Sanchez. I think the 40-man is now up to 40 after the Coonrod trade.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CJ6l3FngFBn/?igshid=1lyev6vtxf2qq

[EDmuch]

It is hard to draw any conclusion other than the FO is not terribly interested in being competitive in 2021.

[David_Criss]

The Phillies need a 4th and 5th starter. Put VV in the pen for crying out loud. I'd feel a lot better if say they sign Taijuan Walker (3/36) and James Paxton (1plus a couple options) to fill out the rotation, which I think they can do without breaking the bank and still allow to re-sign Realmuto. Then again Realmuto has had more than a year to re-sign with the Phillies and hasn't brought his demands back down to earth or the Phillies haven't upped theirs. Who knows? I don't see the Phillies trading for Contreas and Bryant, but I keep waiting for something to get excited about.

Bradley, Yates, Petit and others are still out there for the pen
Paxton, Walker, Brett Anderson and others are still out there for the rotation.
Hernandez could come back and play 2B if they can trade Segura
Lots of options at SS
Do they need to sign a Pederson or Bradley with Haseley ready to play CF?

There are to many players out there who can help the Phillies are still unsigned.

[zambonir]

Starter still seems like the one hole they don't actually have. They need JT, a SS, a high-end reliever and a 4th OF. If they don't get JT they can spend more on the OF and maybe bolster the rotation.

But otherwise, if Howard isn't good enough to be your #4 the team just won't be good enough. same as if Kingery and Hoskins don't produce. 5th/6th/7th starters are always borderline guys.

It's all about JT. Nothing will happen until either he is signed or they feel forced to make some moves while waiting on him. The shortstops are obviously not willing to put pen to paper either.

Segura is probably untradeable, anyone who wants a 2B can just get a better or younger one from the Reds. He's probably our 2B in the end.

[allentown]

The Phillies need a 4th and 5th starter.

Nola, Wheeler, Eflin, Howard -- We need a 5th and arguably a 6th starter Howard, if healthy is good enough to be the #4 starter -- probably can't count on more than 130-140 IP
No we don't need to sign a CF. This is the year to give a thorough try out to the young guys we have, possibly Moniak by end of seas

[zambonir]

We need an OF, period. Maybe he's a Jay Bruce type who is mostly bat/DH and can play LF, maybe he's someone who can also play CF. I don't think Pederson can really play CF at this point, so he falls in the former category. JBJ would obviously be something different.

Matt Winkelman thinks we end up with Haseley/Kingery in CF. Either move on from Quinn or he's the last man on the bench.

Given that we know they are trying to win it's just hard for me to imagine Dombrowski not making at least one major deal, looking to improve the team in a non-obvious way. But until the C situation is resolved it's hard to be bold.

[andyb]

I can't imagine they want to spend much money on an extra OF if they resign JT. Absent trades of course.

I think we are about to sign a bunch of people to $1-$3 million deals except for potentially catcher and shortstop and one higher profile bullpen arm. Those small deals might get decent players this year however.

[zambonir]

Yeah by major deal I mean trade. Some kind of surprise move. Segura for a closer or OF where it actually saves the Phillies $ would be the easy way, but if there's no market for Segura at all, maybe it's someone else. Maybe they even figure out how to unload Herrera.

Not that there aren't guys to cut, but I believe the 40 is now full. Obviously one spot has to be freed up for a catcher. Arano & Irvin probably the fencesitters among the bullpen guys. Garlick surely won't stick. Maybe they just cut loose the Rule 5 guy as soon as they sign a SS (if they do). Velasquez still a trade candidate if they go after Anibal Sanchez or someone like him, though that still feels like a "we need six pitchers" move to me.

[andyb]

Sanchez may be close to done. He should not be among the top 5 starters. He is extra competition and depth for modest cost (though he probably would not go to AAA if he did not make the team).

[zambonir]

For sure but you can say the same thing about Velasquez. Obviously (relative) youth is worth something and he did have a better FIP last year. Having both of them to compete for #5 and/or spell Howard is something like a plan I guess. But there are still plenty of other options too.

The history/familiarity thing is always a tough line to walk, there is value in knowing a guy's make-up but it's also easy to overrate players based on history.

[bkeich]

I get that the Phillies (and more than half the other teams) are in “buy low” mode at this point for financial reasons, but it makes me sad to see the franchise making no attempt to even pretend they want to win anything. I can’t see any way that we aren’t the worst team in this division.

Worse yet, Realmuto may be forced to take a 1 year deal and try FA again next year when the leagues finances are more available. Sadly, I think that means there is almost no chance he signs with the Phillies, who would probably only sign him to a 1 year deal with the idea to flip him for prospects at the trade deadline.

We may be looking at a horrible team here. At the moment we have two position players, one reliever and two starting pitchers that I would say are above average or better (and one of those position players is coming into only his second season). As currently constructed this is a 60 win team. We keep assuming that there will be significant signings just before training camp, but unfortunately there may be many teams in the market then and I can’t believe FA’s see this team as much more than a last resort.

Maybe we add a few dumpster dives to fill out the roster, but my fear is that we are going to have yet another “new GM is evaluating the talent on the team for a year”. Sadly there is so little talent in the franchise it won’t take a year.

[EDmuch]

BK, I agree with you.

[andyb]

Athletic on Howard:

Spencer Howard, after difficult rookie year with Phillies, is upbeat about 2021

Looks like he got out of shape during the pandemic through irregular training and when he came back his mechanics were off. The article is hopeful that all this is corrected, but also seems pessimistic on whether the team will get a full season of innings out of him or Velazquez (who is noted currently slots as the 4th starter).

[Philsmania]

I would just like to see us get out of the limbo we are currently in, stuck somewhere between tearing it all down and doing a rebuild or trying to get something out of what we have before rebuilding. It just seems like all we are doing right now is holding out for Realmuto and a number of other free agents we may be interested to cave in.

Should we feel bad for Harper? Boras certainly didn't dissuade him from coming here and many around the game thought this team was on the brink of contending. Instead it all unraveled. I think the Phillies kidded everyone, even themselves.

[flyers19rw]

Interesting that you bring up Boras. If he knew that the Phillies organization was going to pull the plug and do a complete rebuild, rest assured that he'd be banging the drum for Harper to be on the next plane of town. Since we've seen nothing of that, I assume that the Phillies are going to do what needs to be done in order to contend: re-sign JT, nab a decent SS, fill up the BP with acceptable arms and contend for the NL East and a PO spot. The hiring of Dombrowski also indicates that this is the route that the club is traveling.

[zambonir]

I think it's true they will do stuff and it's also true they've signed up for a year of limbo. They were already prepared to go into this season with an interim GM, but even having moved on from that, and even given Dombrowski's short-timer/horse-trader reputation, he's not going to go crazy (and can't, without the $).

Harper and Boras are gonna have to keep quiet for now. By taking the 13 years, the no-trade and no opt-outs while making noise about raising their family here forever, they are kind of stuck until things get worse. The promise that was made to them was that the Phillies would have a high payroll and now we've seen the folly of that promise, because it doesn't always translate into wins. But they will still have one of the higher payrolls in the game this year.

Now, if JT doesn't re-sign and this team really does finish in last place and they start thinking about trading Nola and Wheeler, Harper would probably want off that train as well. But I could still see this team winning 82-86 games (not the roster as it stands today, but what they end up with in April) and being able to reload next year (when Cutch and Herrera come off the books and Segura no longer ties up money long-term). It all still depends on Kingery, Bohm and Hoskins - and on Wheeler and Nola staying healthy.

And if they do rebuild, it's not Harper who should have to ask for the trade - I don't see how the Phillies would want to keep him on the team and on the books just so he can DH when they are ready to contend again.

[bigegypt0417]

Sanchez seems to be better in the NL vs. the AL...except last year.

was he hurt last season?