Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[fish]

The mlb strategy to wait out free agents is ridiculous to me. I get it in a case like Jake Arietta where he wasn't a target going into the winter but the price tag dropped far enough to make it seem reasonable...but if you really want a guy from the get-go why wouldn't it make sense to be first in line with an offer? Especially if the player was your own and there is some notion that he perceives the idea of staying in Philly favorably. Everyone is waiting for someone else to make an offer. Isn't it just as easy to start the process now that will inevitably start in February? Everyone is afraid to be the first and that somehow they'll forfeit the ability to make the best deal. Things moved fast last winter because teams like the Yankees identified their target and got serious from the start. The only benefit to waiting seems to be that some of the competition may spend their money elsewhere and move on, but that comes with the same risk that if the Phillies miss out on Realmuto that there won't be many/any other decent options left.

[allentown]

.but if you really want a guy from the get-go why wouldn't it make sense to be first in line with an offer? Especially if the player was your own and there is some notion that he perceives the idea of staying in Philly favorably.

In the case of Realmuto, we are looking at a guy who, playing in a Covid season, was still announcing his expectation of an all-time record contract for a catcher. No way to jump in early under that set of circumstances. If you give him what he wants, or even quite close to it, and we have another mainly Covid season, which is appears we will have (at least a Covid half season before the possibility of kind-of normality, but with frightened fans still reducing attendance), then the team has made a bad deal. I think both sides are waiting, for the most part, to see what the world is likely to look like in April 2021. The players seem to be counting on a return to normalcy, while a lot of owners are preparing for a repeat of 2020. The picture may be clearer in late February, which is when many big deals might get done.

[zambonir]

With Dombrowski coming on board I suppose it's true that both sides need to formally restart negotiations, but I also wouldn't say the process hasn't started. It started 9 months ago, and neither side has changed their number. If anything JT's has gotten bigger (there was talk of a $200 million deal) and the Phillies' have gotten smaller. Only time can move them closer together when they are that far apart.

His original goal was five years $130. If you're the Phillies do you even offer four years $100 right now? I don't know, but I don't think you can go any lower/shorter in any useful way. And making an especially insulting formal offer rather than a generous pre-emptive one may hurt rather than help. Don't forget this all started because the Phillies were penny-wise/pound-foolish with him in arbitration, and they're going to continue to be good MLB soldiers I'm sure.

Usually it's the agents who wait it out to get more money, not the teams who wait it out to save money. Arrieta was an outlier.

[philsphan67]

FA's signing earlier.....This is a problem the MLB has and I hope with the next CBA, I am not expecting baseball in 2022 until mid-summer at the earliest, that needs to be addressed. The other sports off-seasons generate a lot of positive vibes and the MLB is a lot of people complaining that no one spends money. There is some truth to that, especially from the small-market teams, but IMO a new system is needed.

[zambonir]

I just don't understand how it is a problem. It is a free market. Artificial deadlines would just hurt players, most of whom are already underpaid and overly restricted for the first six years of their careers. And this year it's also irrelevant since any deadline would be tied to the season start date and we don't actually have one yet.

The reason baseball is not like other sports is there's no salary cap or salary floor and there's no revenue sharing. The players don't want the former and the owners don't want the latter - though they want it a lot right now - but without those things it will never be like other sports. The NBA signs everyone almost immediately - even before they are allowed, unofficially - because salaries are essentially predetermined, and every team is required to spend between $98 million and $109 million, so the only difference between a cheap team and an expensive team is when you start paying the luxury tax and re-signing your own stars. Same thing in the NFL, every team in the league basically has the same payroll between the floor and the cap.

If the Phillies could just sign J.T. to a Larry Bird exception it'd be done. Except they'd probably be trading him, the way things are right now.

[andyb]

Well, we finally signed a Dominican player that got a $4.5 million bonus. 12 years ago of course.

Phillies sign former 'big bonus' pitcher Michael Ynoa to minor-league contract

Seems to be pitching well in the Dominican League this winter. 12.2 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 18 K.

Michael Ynoa Minor & Winter Leagues Statistics & History |...

[EDmuch]

The Year of the Dumpster Dive

[andyb]

It is hard to know if this year is any different than past years. We always sign a half dozen relievers to minor league deals who have some big league experience. I am guessing all teams want lots of options especially with COVID hanging around. Plus, the 40-man roster is pretty tight this year so there is incentive to have lots of minor league deals who come to training camp with a legit shot to make a roster.

I am curious if this is how we will approach starting depth as well. Will we bring in a couple of AAAA starters on minor league deals to give VV and others some competition at the back end of the rotation? Could this even include someone like Hamels with an incentive-laden minor league deal? Younger starters will want some sort of major league roster guarantee.

We certainly will sign or trade for a couple more bullpen pieces that will need roster spots. Less sure if that happens with the rotation though.

[zambonir]

Nothing wrong with dumpster dives (or volume), would just be nice to hit on one again. Definitely still better than spending $20 million on David Robertson and Nicasio (or trading for the guys we got last years). But there's no way they won't sign at least one reliever in the $6-10 million range (depending on the term and how the market plays out). Alvarado might be the second guaranteed addition already.

As thin and awful as things were last year, there's still not that many spots to fill, though at the same time most everybody is also not immune from a DFA or option. Another Hunter type could take Hamilton or Hale's spot. Alvarez or another more experienced lefty could buy Romero more time if needed (or make Suarez a starter option). An Arano comeback or Brogdon stepping up would certainly be better than ending up with another Workman or Hembree.

Neris
Higher-end free agent
Alvarado
Suarez (L)
Romero (L)
Brogdon
Hale
Hamilton
Arano/Rosso/other minor leaguers

I would agree a guaranteed starting pitcher spot is less likely, unless they trade VV. But they do need to bolster the 6th starter depth with a few minor league vets if they can.

I wonder what Hamels will fetch. Braves certainly don't seem to need him, Will our new front office finally bring in a lefty starter?

[Austinfan]

Dumpster diving is smart, the key is to have scouts/development coaches who can turn 1-2 each season into gems.

[zambonir]

Overhauling the pro scouting department should really be the next big move, it is the only department that is still run by an Amaro-era guy (unless you count Sal but even he answers to Minniti, who is apparently going to maintain his same portfolio, at least for this season).

Of course it's also impossible to really read anything into last year. A guy like Phelps and even the fringe vets (Guerra, McClain) may have helped over a full season, but between the abbreviated schedule and the early interruption/compression, the Phillies couldn't afford to ride out ups and downs. On top of that you had a pitching coach who hadn't done that job in seven years and in hindsight didn't want be there, which was also circumstantial. Relievers are variable enough to begin with and I'm sure some of our 2019 duds will shine elsewhere without it necessarily being because a better organization unlocked something the Phillies couldnt.

[allentown]

Overhauling the pro scouting department should really be the next big move,

I can list that as the second move. International is #1 in my book. We missed the boat there. After toeing the line on adhering to the Commissioner's intent, and, having watched other teams reap a bonanza, is to find our self in the third tier of international allocations. Even with that, we should be doing better and it's just embarrassing to pop $2.5 million on a guy and not even know his correct age. Whether the guy (Ortiz) fades by the opening of signing season or lies to us about his age, we just pay the originally promised amount. The boy scout approach continues to fail us.

[zambonir]

True, but finding 16 year-olds in Latin America is still a pretty inexact science. Properly assessing major leaguers and prospects (both your own and other people's) for trades or free agents shouldn't be as tough. Of course, that is likely the fault of Klentak and his analytics operation, which was pretty obviously lacking, as much as Ondo.

Ondo and Sal might also be the kind of people that Dombrowski's more inclined to keep. None of it is probably that important right now - if Dombrowski and Fuld are good, they will make changes, or the people they keep will suddenly seem like they are better than their jobs. But it's not gonna be fast.

[LoneStarPhan]

Even a pitcher like Workman might be a good signing if the price was right. He was lights out in 2019 and could be good again in 2021. Relievers are a tough bunch to know what you are going to get.

[flyers19rw]

I wouldn't touch Workman with a twenty foot pole and neither should the Phillies have done that last season. When I view RPs, my rule of thumb is to check out their usage. In '17, he was used 33 times out of the pen; in '18 it was 43 times; again not that bad of a usage. However, in '19 it almost doubled to 73 appearances. That's quite an increase. With SPs, the rule of thumb is not to increase their IPs by more than ten percent over a previous year; fifteen should be a maximum. Applying something like that as a measure for RPs would show that Workman was a crash waiting to happen in '20 and it did. Once these guys break down like Workman did last season, usually they're finished as far as effectiveness goes.

[zambonir]

I suspect Workman was more lucky than great - if still good - in 2019. Probably didn't have a lot of truly high-leverage innings. Still blew 6 saves in 22 chances too. I wouldn't assume he's finished, but I also wouldn't want to be the next team to find out. Also why the heck did he pitch 73 innings? He only finished 30 games. I guess in the first half of the season he wasn't always closing, and Boston was also contending.

For the Phillies he's just too similar to Neris - is only effective if his best pitch, which can't be thrown for called strikes, is working perfectly, second pitch isn't good enough (for a late inning guy anyway).

Phelps is the guy I'd bring back, they just didn't want to do it at $4.5 million which appears to have been a correct read on the market.

[andyb]

In '17, he was used 33 times out of the pen; in '18 it was 43 times; again not that bad of a usage. However, in '19 it almost doubled to 73 appearances.

Workman was in the minors for parts of 2017 and 2018. In 2017 he had 51 combined appearances for 68.2 IP (clearly being used a lot for 2 inning appearances. In 2018 combined he had 60 appearances for 71.1 IP. In light of that the 2019 usage of 73 games and 71.2 IP is not bad at all. Just the same usage as previous years but more 1 inning appearances.

The issue with Workman is that he has never been the lights out guy he was for one season in 2019. Looking at his other years and focusing more on his time as a reliever rather than a starter he was a guy that was decent that could give you 70 innings a year in a setup of middle relief role. He was never a real late inning guy stuff-wise.

I'd resign him for a modest contract. Though there are 50 other pitchers worthy of that type of $3 million ish deal and if the experience in Philly was so bad for everyone, he probably should just go elsewhere.

[EDmuch]

I would give Robertson a shot before Workman.

[flyers19rw]

Does anyone know how far along Robertson was with his rehab at the end of the year?

[zambonir]

He had a setback, he's probably a a minor league deal guy at this point (albeit with a generous major league component), or a super-cheap incentives deal.

And in this climate Workman is probably a $1 million guy. Workman is the only guy the Phillies actively chose not to bring back, as he was already a free agent. Phelps and Hembree were choices.

I'd still consider bringing Hunter back, but again, in this climate, you probably don't even have to offer him a guarantee.