Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[zambonir]

Or they'll still trade VV. New GM, new pitching coach, who knows, but he never seemed to settle into bullpen role and would be expensive for it. Of course in a normal year $3-4 million for a sixth starter is typical. Even $6 million would be.

Semien seems like a good candidate for the pillow deal. But I don't think they are avoiding a three-year deal because of Stott, they want one of the bigger SS names next year with Cutch and Herrera off the books. Really they should be in on Lindor now, but have neither the $ nor the trade depth.

[andyb]

I would not dismiss Stott completely. They liked him enough to bring him to the alternate site and if last season were normal he might have finished in Reading. Him being ready in 2022 is a fairly typical timeline for a high college pick who is polished. I have no idea if they think his defense is good enough at SS of course, but he probably has a chance at a starting job in 2022 if things go well this year. If things don't go well they could very well be in the market for the better talents, but as we everything, organizations need to give their better prospects a chance because a good team is always a mix of low-priced young talent and higher priced older talent.

[Austinfan]

I can see Stott as SS in 2022 as a stopgap for Baylor or Garcia.
I think they still see Garcia as the SS of the future but he's probably 2-3 years away.
Simmons is a wildcard, but if he makes it, he'd probably fight it out with Stott for 3B with Bohm moving to 1B or LF.

[andyb]

If Stott is the SS in 2022 he is not a stopgap for someone younger. He is the SS for the next 6 years hopefully. We need one of those players to get better and become a starting SS. Stott probably has the best odds. Garcia is much more of an unknown at this point with no certainty of a major league bat.

[Austinfan]

Garcia should be better defensively than Stott, while Bohm is a long run question mark at 3B.
If Stott has average range for SS, he has a good shot at being above average at 3B.

[zambonir]

Well, forgive me if my default position is still that Phillies prospects either won't work out or take longer to get to the majors than they should. And while Dombrowski talks a good game he still has to be aggressive about winning for the next three years. One way or another they'll add a FA next year, maybe it's a SS, maybe it's a LF. And since Stott has yet to spend a day in AA I think he's more than one year away, even being a college guy.

The blind optimist in me hopes Casey Martin turns into something.

Questions about Bohm are also tied to questions about Hoskins. But we'll probably have a DH.

[andyb]

Garcia should be better defensively than Stott, while Bohm is a long run question mark at 3B.
If Stott has average range for SS, he has a good shot at being above average at 3B.

We don't know any of that and some of that is based upon scouting reports several years and not reflective of what we have seen in pro ball. Garcia may have the potential to be a bit better defensively, but that does not mean that Stott cannot play a decent shortstop in the majors. His scouting reports suggest he might. He might also have to switch to 3B of course, where his offense is questionable.

The big point is that Stott is probably 75% certain of being a major leaguer and Garcia is less than 50% and a couple of years further away. Stott will probably start in Reading this year and Garcia in Clearwater which will be low A. There is just so much more certainty about Stott now and couple that with proximity, it is a question that could be answered in 2022. Garcia is not a question that could be answered in 2022.

You just have this habit of selectively reading scouting reports and coming up with only one certain path for prospects. Stott is the better prospect who is almost ready for the majors.

Z - I think you are wrong about Stott in 2022. He is at least as polished as Adam Haseley and did better in his debut season especially when you consider position. On the same schedule Haseley was in the majors for the majority of his age 23 year which would be 2021 for Stott. Stott was at the alternate site last season so got lots of work in. 2022 is still a very reasonable time frame.

We still need a SS. And we still should look at both 1 and longer (2-3 year) deals. Stott could always play 2B. So could someone like Semien. And Dombrowski is 50-50 to trade virtually any prospect so Stott could be dealt. But he is very much an option to contribute by 2022 if not start. It is probably a longshot option to start, but if he requires 2 more whole years in the minors he is probably not going to be good enough to be a starter anywhere. First round picks often come with significant polish. Stott is very experienced (compared to a Kingery in the infield for instance). And Kingery was in the majors for his entire 2022 season also (his age 24 year which will be 2022 for Stott).

[Austinfan]

Don't care what miracle trades Dombrowski makes, Phillies aren't going anywhere the next few years unless they develop a couple players who are above average starters out of their system - who, I don't know, but without that influx of real value, they can't buy or trade for (with what assets?) enough talent to get over the top.

Whether it's Howard, Garcia, Rojas, Simmons, Stott, Abel - we need a couple to emerge as 4-5 WAR players in 2022-2024 or the talent will just erode - and the next couple drafts, no matter how well run, are unlikely to have an impact until 2024-25. Most can miss or be meh, but other than Bohm, who has done anything since Hoskins, (and he's been the girl with the curl) and before that Nola? Maybe Kingery breaks out this season, maybe Haseley lives up to his draft spot and has 40 doubles, but this team needs help from within.

Otherwise Dombrowski will be playing "whack a mole," fix one hole only to find you don't have the money or assets to address other needs.

[allentown]

fix one hole only to find you don't have the money or assets to address other needs.

My larger concern with trades is if you fill a hole via trade rather than FA, you create another hole, likely a year or two down the line, as we did with the Segura and Realmuto trade, while reducing current budget flexibility. I think it is the very rare team that can fill all its holes and that this will be especially impossible with this year's baseball finances. I see a real danger in trying to fill every hole -- a strategy the Phillies have followed all too often. I see the most likely approach of 'filling' the holes with a half dozen or more (more in the case of the 2021 Phillies) who individually and collectively can't move the needle, because they are all basically below average for their MLB role. Since I agree with you that I see no way the Phillies can be truly competitive in 2021, my preference is to effectively fill as many holes with better than average players as the budget permits and have a casting call for AAAA players and virtually unsignable MLB FAs and our own minor leaguers to fill the rest. I am talking about multi-year fixes, not single year hole filling with the above average fillers. Then, in 2022 you fill more holes. We need a SP, about 5 RP, a SS, a starting C, and, arguably, an OF. That's an impossible number of holes to fill well.

[zambonir]

Z - I think you are wrong about Stott in 2022. He is at least as polished as Adam Haseley and did better in his debut season especially when you consider position. On the same schedule Haseley was in the majors for the majority of his age 23 year which would be 2021 for Stott. Stott was at the alternate site last season so got lots of work in. 2022 is still a very reasonable time frame.

To me that's exactly the issue. Haseley wasn't supposed to play in the majors in 2019. He probably would have started 2020 in AAA too. He's a guy who still needs ABs who is perceived as a bench player on a contending team.

I agree we can scarcely afford to continue this cycle of free agents over youngsters indefinitely, so sure, if you like Stott, a one plus one or even guaranteed two-year deal for a SS is perfect and even a three-year deal, which I doubt they want to give out anyway, leaves the door open for him (bench in 2022, start in 2023). But like you say it's 50-50 Dombrowski would trade him. And if they stick to a one-year deal I think that clearly signals they are players on the SS FA market.

This is all asuming they are still trying to win a championship while Nola is still here of course. And that we sign JT (though if we don't sign JT but still don't start rebuilding next year, that makes chasing Lindor etc. even more likely).

[Taudawg]

Rays, Phillies, Dodgers Swing Three-Team Trade

[andyb]

Seems a reasonable move. Arbitration eligible so this will cost us about $1M this year, more in future years. Fills a need and he is probably better than Cleavinger even if he is more expensive.

Neutral 40-man move for us. Of course, when one sees the headline of a 3-way trade with the Rays and the Dodgers the first thought is - this can't end well.

[Philsmania]

Not a franchise-altering move by any stretch but a good start for Dombrowski & Fuld.

[flyers19rw]

Looks like Cash ran him into the ground in '18 and he's never recovered from that usage. Before that he was fine.

[zambonir]

Cubs apparently making Contreras available next.

[David_Criss]

He will be a whole lot cheaper than Realmuto.

[zambonir]

And yet we still have so little to give in trade!

Hopefully he will take another team off the JT market. Right or wrong the last thing this front office needs is to make it official that they've given up on JT this early, though they also going to have a real problem if they wait out his market and then lose.

[flyers19rw]

The fact that they haven’t given up on JT should be indication that they are going to sign him. Realistically the only landing spot for him, other than in Philly is NYY. However the Yankees have not given up on Sanchez and want to re-sign Lemahieu who is after the same type of deal that JT wants. They’d rather have Lemahieu.
Realmuto is seeing where the market is taking itself and it’s not where he wanted it to go. Aging catchers aren’t that attractive. IDK what he really wants, money or term but it’s looking like he won’t get both.

[Taudawg]

All that is needed for a Realmuto bidding war is one other team. Toronto is the one that concerns me. They are ready to win and have the payroll room.

[zambonir]

Yeah Toronto is a possibility. And there's always a surprise team. The Yankees really don't seem to be any ready to spend bigger than the Phillies though, with or without LeMahieu. I agree the market will probably come to them eventually. But the market also hasn't even really started, as with Manny and Bryce two years ago. I just saw Bauer is supposedly looking for 5-6 years $36 million AAV.

With the season unlikely to even start before May it will be pretty easy for both sides to play chicken for a while. And even with a 10-15% payroll cut the Phillies can afford him. But they also really can't afford to lose him, if it means alternative/complementary options are off the market (not just a catcher but SS and OF).