Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

andyb 2021-01-12 19:36:26 UTC #862

I don't think he was hurt. His stuff was just never that sharp in the shortened season and he is one of those guys whose stuff is mediocre enough that his command needs to be really good to succeed. Kind of like Jeremy Hellickson.

Balance that with the fact that he is great in the clubhouse though and he is a good vet to bring in for low cost since there is no downside.

BostonRoss 2021-01-13 01:43:34 UTC #863

My main memory of Anibal Sanchez is a playoff game I attended at Fenway Park when he was a Tiger. He threw six no-hit innings but had thrown so many pitches they had to take him out. The Red Sox didn't get a hit until the ninth. Future Phillie Daniel Nava got the hit off future Phillie Joaquin Benoit (who had replaced future Phillie Drew Smyly). Former Phillie Quentin Berry ran for Nava and stole second, but he was stranded as the Sox lost.1-0.

LoneStarPhan 2021-01-13 09:06:07 UTC #864

andyb 2021-01-13 13:08:47 UTC #865

Conceptually it is not the worst move. Moniak seems a little bit high of a price to pay though. The worry is the decline in defense and athleticism. The defense went from good to below average in 2019-2020. The sprint speed went from good to bad. He'll only be 27 this season in July, so clearly he is young enough to turn it around, but what happened to him defensively seems not unlike what happened to Herrera.

bigegypt0417 2021-01-13 14:45:11 UTC #866

That such a weird article...i feel like the author says two different things and do we really think Moniak is now an overpay for an established ML player? Benintendi was hurt most of last year so it seems like you're buying very low.

BostonRoss 2021-01-13 14:52:12 UTC #867

I agree it was a weird article. It said that Benintendi was a “key peace” on the Sox WC team. I don’t remember the Sox being bellicose.

I don’t see Moniak as a likely star. Using him to buy low on Benintendi makes a lot of sense to me. I’m surprised that the Sox have soured on him so much that Moniak could get the deal done.

bkeich 2021-01-13 15:33:14 UTC #868

Yea, t try his seems like turning nothing (Moniak) into a gamble on something. Benintendi wasn’t a star, even at his best, but at least he is a ML player. He was a good chance at a 2-3 WAR player, so we would get a few years of that at around cost. Moniak is just a AAA/AAAA OF with no power, moderate speed and average hit tool. Basically trading our Iron Pig CF for 6-9 WAR and ~$25M in salary. Yea, sounds like a good deal to me.

(I think he has 3 years of team control, might just be 2)

andyb 2021-01-13 16:04:17 UTC #869

Here are the statcast running stats. The pattern is consistent decline: 28.6, 28.3, 27.7, 27.1, 26.6.

He was a negative defensively in 2019 and that was not because they played him in CF (where he had only 6 starts). He makes more sense if there is a DH, but at the moment he does not look like a 2 WAR player. He'll make $6.6 million this year and more than that next year in arbitration. So it is not an inexpensive 2 years of control.

I think we can do better for that amount of money and while I am not the biggest Moniak fan, between him and Haseley the likelihood is one or both are going to be better than Benintendi is today (the older, less athletic Benintendi).

bigegypt0417 2021-01-13 16:22:59 UTC #870

With the exception of 2020 where he was definitely hurt, he's been a 2 WAR player even with the negative defense.

What is it that we would expect Moniak could bring back?

andyb 2021-01-13 16:27:45 UTC #871

Not much. And that is the point about Benintendi. He is not that good any more if the defense is a minus. Yes he could produce years in the 1.5-2.0 WAR range if he got 600 plate appearances. So could Haseley and probably Quinn though. And do you want to pay $16 million for 2 years of platoon play which is what we would get if there is not a DH? Realistically he is probably a non-tender after 2021 even if he has a better year. So we are talking one year of play when there is not a starting spot immediately available to him because he is decidedly not a CF.

EDmuch 2021-01-13 16:56:32 UTC #872

There is no basis in fact whatsoever that Hassley is a 2 WAR player over an entire season. And Moniak's value is roughly the equivalent of a large fruit basket.

andyb 2021-01-13 17:03:23 UTC #873

Other than 1.8 WAR in 67 games in 2019 at the age of 23? He is not supposed to get better?

There is 5 years of evidence of Benintendi's gradually diminished physical skills. There is no guarantee he is ever a 2 WAR player either.

zambonir 2021-01-13 17:04:28 UTC #874

Besides the 1.8 WAR he put up in just 222 ABs in 2019?

(cross-posted with andy, ha).

I'm as skeptical as anyone that he's an everyday player but he didn't even get a chance to continue developing last year (92 ABs and his 0 WAR was because of defense).

Which may be a good reason to trade him, if they aren't going to play him, but' that's another topic. This is a guy who wasn't even supposed to be in the majors in 2019 and barely played in AAA.

As for the rumor, I wouldn't make too much of one tweet by a Boston podcast host. I mean, it might be as solid as a Heyman tweet but how many of those happen?

I don't think Benitendi would be bad to have, but he probably can't be a starting CF either. He'd be more like Bruce's replacement, but more versatile/a better fielder.

Philsmania 2021-01-13 17:14:25 UTC #875

I don't think Benintendi is any kind of a savior but Moniak isn't a big price to pay (and moving him helps us to psychologically turn the page on the ill-fated Klentak and Almaraz eras).

BostonRoss 2021-01-13 17:15:10 UTC #876

Let’s not just assume that the defense is a minus going forward. Benintendi has had one season of negative dWAR. He is essentially a zero DWAR player. He’d be joining a Phillies team that did not have one outfielder with a positive dWAR last year.

Before his 14 injury plagued games last year, Benintendi accumulated 9 WAR over three seasons. No guarantee he can repeat that, but it seems way more likely than Moniak doing that, or even Haseley (whom we would still have).

I can’t see any reason not to make this trade unless the price is much more than Moniak.

zambonir 2021-01-13 17:39:47 UTC #877

One assumes the Phillies would not be paying more than half of Benintendi's salary. But that could also mean the price is higher.

Moniak is not a huge price to pay but the tweet says "Moniak and a Triple A arm."

I guess that could just be someone they need to move off the 40 anyway (like Irvin) or even someone who's not on the 40 (De Los Santos). We don't really have any valuable guys who fit that description though that doesn't mean we can afford to dump the ones who have a little (or are still works-in-progress).

He'd also be flippable if he plays okay and the Phillies... don't.

flyers19rw 2021-01-13 18:12:11 UTC #878

Some have suggested that with re-signing JT and Didi, that all the Phillies need is a glove in CF that can hit what would be expected of an eighth place in the order bat. Baseball ref predicts Hasely’s ‘21 numbers to be .261/.332/.400.732. It seems that that performance out of Hasely would fill the bill. He’s been adequate in CF. What he lacks in outfield coverage, which isn’t much, he makes up with his arm. Let’s just re-sign the FAs and play on with what is at hand. No need to spend assets on Benintendi. Use the in other places.

zambonir 2021-01-13 19:03:21 UTC #879

That would be the rosy view, but it not only requires you to think Haseley can rediscover both his defense and some as-yet-undiscovered power, but that the Phillies have any intention of letting him be the primary CF, especially if Segura isn't traded (which means Kingery likely plays at least 80 games in CF, including against RHP). As it is they still preferred Quinn last year.

Benintendi wouldn't affect any of this really, except he'd take away opportunities for Haseley and Quinn to play LF, and (assuming there's a DH) DH ABs from other players (that would mostly go to Cutch).

But that's only if they really do sign JT and a SS. If they actually did make this deal, I'd say it's more like the first step to them admitting one or both of those things won't happen, so it's time to start tinkering with (potential) upgrades at other spots.

But I wouldn't read much into that blog post/tweet either. Six or seven other teams are rumored to be talking to the Sox about him.

David_Criss 2021-01-13 20:07:27 UTC #880

Haseley is the starting centerfielder and in line to replace McCutchen in 2022 if he doesn't stay in CF. He would basically replace Garlick I am assuming with Haseley, Quinn, McCutchen, Harper and Benintendi in the fold.
Trades the Phillies need to be looking at include ridding themselves of Segura's salary. If they are going to trade for Benintendi, he will be cheaper than JBJ, but also a major step down. Job Pederson is still out there, too.

zambonir 2021-01-13 21:47:31 UTC #881

Quinn and Haseley were a non-traditional platoon, but if anything Haseley was the back-up. Quinn made 30 starts, including 17 against RHP. Haseley made 23, 21 of them against RHP. Not all of them in CF, sometimes they started the same game (and Harper and Moniak also played there).

Right now I wouldn't say either of them looks good enough to be a starting OF, in LF or CF. Haseley doesn't have the bat for LF or the glove for CF; the question is, which tool is he most likely to improve? But it still seems to me both Klentak and Girardi had already decided he's a 4th OF. Whether a new regime, or more modest competitive goals, changes that perspective, guess we'll see.

Not sure there's anything else to learn about Quinn though. Best-case he's a valuable bench player, worst-case he's Billy Hamilton.

A hodge-podge OF while they spend one more season treading water and seeing if any of these guys really have a future is okay, though if so, you still want Moniak.