Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[flyers19rw]

I guess that I’m one of the few around here that thinks that Hasely can be a competent major league player. I’m not into him being an AS but a solid outfielder on the line of an Andrew Benetendi. So far he has not really had a shot at being a regular for a season however his numbers have not been bad. He has not shown power but his BA is better than JBJ and other stats are slightly better aside from JBJ SLG. Speed is JBJ’s best asset and helps his defense. OTOH, Hasely being a former SP in college, probably has the stronger arm. The critical number is this comparison is age. Hasely will be 25 this coming season and has room to grow in his game. At 31, JBJ is what you see. I don’t see any reason to go out and pay FA money to acquire a player who may not be any better than one that the Phillies have at a cost effective price. If the buck is as tight in town as advertised, the cash differential would be better used by the club in other areas of the roster.

[zambonir]

For sure, with Herrera and Cutch coming off the books after this year and Segura after the next one, and with a presumed rosier financial picture in 2022, the Phillies should be able to afford to buy 10 wins, and the current core is still worth 80. But like Andy said, it may not work, and it works less well if 2-3 homegrown regulars don't step up.

But the financial picture also may not improve enough this season, and you've got the possible 2022 labor dispute on top of that.

There's very clearly no appetite to rebuild right now, and to do so by trading Nola (or even Wheeler) would open the window to Harper wanting out. Dombrowski is going to have to take his best two shots, and if it doesn't change the picture significantly, Nola will get traded in either July or December of 2022.

[fish]

I guess that I’m one of the few around here that thinks that Hasely can be a competent major league player.

I like him for 450 ABs, next year- I really like the contact approach that he and Bohm bring to a lineup that otherwise strikes out a lot. .

[BostonRoss]

A more optimistic way to look at things is that the 2020 Phillies scored almost the same number of runs they allowed. This makes them an 80 win team. Their relievers had a collective WAR of -1.5; projected to a full season that's minus 4. In theory, just replacing the bullpen with replacement level players would add four wins. 84 wins is close to a playoff team with the expanded format. If they spent their money re-signing DD and J.T., or getting roughly equivalent replacements, they wouldn't lose much on offense, and they could be better (full season of Bohm, improvement from Kingery and Haseley, not playing Cutch as much if he can't rebound).

I'm not at all suggesting they mortgage the future to improve the 2021 team since even if they make the playoffs, they are unlikely to go far against superior teams. But I don't see a need to blow everything up.

[zambonir]

The reason something like replacing Haseley comes up is nothing should be off the table is all. If they do fix the bullpen and bring back JT and Didi (or someone like Didi) some marginal improvements - a better starter than Velasquez, more from Howard, a better CF or a healther & better-fielding replacement for Bruce - could take them from 84 to 88.

We can't afford to give up on cheap major league-ready talent too quickly, but if Haseley is merely a "competent major leaguer" we wouldn't be rueing the day they traded him either. Let's just hope the same's not true of Kingery, since he'll lack trade value once his bigger money starts next year.. Funnily enough neither of them really spent enough time in AAA (but especially not Haseley. Bohm neither, but he didn't miss a beat).

[LoneStarPhan]

12/16/20 : Phillies sign RHP Neftali Feliz

I expect they will sign a few more ML experienced potential relievers to minor league contracts with an invitation to the big league spring camp. I also expect a couple relievers signed to ML contracts. the 2021 bullpen will not be the 2020 pen.

[mdougherty12]

Feliz hasn’t pitched in MLB since 2017. He had a mediocre season in Reno in 2018, and has thrown a few innings in each of the last three winters in the D.R. Seems like a long shot, but I guess you never know.

[LoneStarPhan]

Feliz is currently pitching for Aguilas Cibaenas in the Dominican Winter League. He had posted six saves in the Winter League in 13 appearances striking out 19 batters and walking 6 in 12 2/3 IP.

Reportedly clocked hitting 95-96 mph.

Bring in a handful of players like this and hope to get one or two that stick and have a good year. We all know that relievers can be frustratingly inconsistent year to year. Feliz is only 32, so a comeback is possible.

[allentown]

I guess that I’m one of the few around here that thinks that Hasely can be a competent major league player

I think he can be a competent major league player this year. I just don't see him becoming a better than average MLB starter and think the probability is that his career will be a bit less than that.

[BostonRoss]

I remember thinking we would rue the day we traded Jon Singleton.

[BostonRoss]

Felix is the second player we’ve acquired whom the Braves traded in the Mark Teixeira deal. We need a SS; so maybe we can talk to the Rangers about Elvis Andrus. Heck, we need a catcher, too; Jarrod Saltalamacchia is only 35, and he’s played in the majors more recently than Felix.

[andyb]

Feliz is kind of the Seranthony Dominguez of his day. Came up with elite stuff but then was overused early and it never came all the way back. Sometimes a couple of years off can help and he is shockingly still only 32 years old. I assume we will sign a half dozen pitchers like him. Hope one or two of them are actually good.

[flyers19rw]

Stark: Inside the Phillies' full-circle search that led to Dave Dombrowski

Excellent article by Jason stark on the Phillies' hiring of DD. Unfortunately it is behind a pay wall. Suffice it to say that Middleton did his due diligence in searching for a head of baseball operations. MacPhail was helpful with this search.
The story reports that if expansion for Nashville was a possibility, DD would not be here. DD looks like a person of integrity for sticking with the Nashville people until the end. Also for being willing to be helpful to them in the future, though obviously in a different role.
A thing that I don't get is why LeVine walked away from this job. I have a hard time accepting that being the head of the FO in Minnesota is a better job than having that role in Philly. Maybe others here have the answer to that.

[andyb]

The one thing that really bothers me about that article is that it seems to have been a search for a pre-defined shiny object. A baseball executive with a certain level of experience and, frankly, celebrity. The part about what direction to take the club in philosophically seems to have been a secondary concern in the whole process. I know the article closes with Middleton emphasizing the long term goals over the quick patch, but it really looks like the direction of the club took a backseat to getting a big name here.

I could see that as a reason Levine backed away.

[BostonRoss]

The overuse was partly due to an ill-conceived attempt to convert him to a starter. That trick (almost) never works.

All four of the major leaguers the Rangers got in that trade are still 35 or younger. Andrus is also 32.

[zambonir]

Excellent article by Jason stark on the Phillies' hiring of DD. Unfortunately it is behind a pay wall. Suffice it to say that Middleton did his due diligence in searching for a head of baseball operations. MacPhail was helpful with this search.

I've got free month passes to the Athletic if anyone wants, as do other boardmembers I'm sure. They have a lot of deals these days in general.

A thing that I don't get is why LeVine walked away from this job. I have a hard time accepting that being the head of the FO in Minnesota is a better job than having that role in Philly. Maybe others here have the answer to that.

He didn't walk away, he turned it down from the very start (if you read the article). I don't think it's complicated, he just likes his current job, boss, city, family situation. And maybe wants to see through what he's already built, having just won two division championships. Recent history says they'll never win it all but they're obviously closer than the Phillies right now.

I remember thinking we would rue the day we traded Jon Singleton.

Certainly the Astros rued giving him that contract!

Obviously the issue for the Phillies is they don't have enough depth to guess wrong on which guys might exceed their (perceived) ceiling. But there are other cost-benefit factors.

And moving parts. In a vacuum if the Phillies have $8 million to spend on a FA position player besides JT it should be a SS not a CF. On the other hand if you sign a CF maybe you trade Haseley for a SS. Or maybe including him or Quinn helps gets Segura traded and then you've got the $ for Didi.

The reality is we're not "set" at either position. They could get by with Haseley and Quinn (while signing a bat for LF/DH) but they could also get by with Segura or Kingery at SS. Given the payroll cut and need to avoid repeating the Cutch/Segura contract mistakes I doubt we are really players for Bradley, but no spot in the line-up is ironclad besides RF and 3B (and even our 3B might open the year at 1B).

[andyb]

That Astros contract was a waste, but it was only $10 million. He probably had better minor league performance than Hoskins when they were both in AA/AAA (certainly regarding age vs level). Imagine if we had gotten Hoskins on that type of deal.

Good organizations do these types of deals. Herrera was a bad deal for the Phillies though really it has been 2.3 WAR for what will end up being about $30 million total - bad but not the end of the world. And Kingery will still provide value for his $24 million even if he remains a second tier starter.

[zambonir]

Singleton was not your typical bust, though I guess now you can say that about Herrera too. Herrera's deal wasn't premature though.

And for sure they were still creative, and fit what the team was trying to achieve. The Phillies still stand to benefit from the deal if Kingery pans out, even as a supersub (if he performs better) and they've already benefitted by not having to manipulate his service time or go through the tenders and arbitration process, even if his rookie season didn't end up being worth the trouble.

[Austinfan]

I think we can write off last year for Kingery, COVID can really throw an athlete for a loop.

He's a plus fielder at 2B and adequate at SS and 3B, and probably could be plus in CF if he stayed there for a year - so he doesn't have to be a great hitter to have value, even if he's just 1 WAR a season the next four years that's a good contract.

I think the key for him is to focus on OBP, he has good pop, legitimate alley power, but with his speed, it's criminal not to get on base on a regular basis.

[andyb]

Why do we write off Kingery and nobody else?

He had a bad year. It is one negative performance after a decent year. He does not get a pass though. Lots of players had COVID and he had plenty of time to get better. It is a small sample, but one should never overlook a year's performance by making an excuse.