Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

BaseballCat 2020-12-18 00:31:02 UTC #762

Freddie Freeman had a bad case of COVID and was the league MVP for what it is worth...

zambonir 2020-12-18 01:14:32 UTC #763

Who else would you even write off from last year in the line-up? Everyone was actually good! Even Cutch was on a positive upswing as the season wore on given his age and injury. Segura was okay. If either of them had had COVID and hit .150 I'd probably blame the COVID. If Quinn had COVID I'd give him a break, but he didn't.

And Kingery didn't just have COVID, he had several nagging injuries (resulting in part from his lack of conditioning/ability to train due to COVID, just like Arano was never really able to get his arm ready).

Clearly the virus affected him more severely than other players, and not that many other players actually had COVID with symptoms. Yes, Freddie Freeman was as good despite having had it as Kingery was bad. Everyone is different. Maybe Kingery isn't mentally or physically as tough as others. Maybe not.

The point is not to make an excuse or give him a pass, the point is, is it a smart baseball decision to say it was COVID and assume Kingery can be your starting 2B or 500-AB guy next year? Because if the answer is no, that affects other spots on the roster, and your confidence in his value past 2021, and the team's prospects this year.

He also had a bad second half in 2019, IIRC. So you can call the whole thing the equivalent of a sophomore slump, but they need him to at least be on a Cesar Hernandez arc rather than a Maikel Franco arc. Fortunately he's got defense and versatility if nothing else.

DurhamBull 2020-12-18 01:28:25 UTC #764

Please remind me, was he the PTBNL in that trade that took everyone by surprise?

BostonRoss 2020-12-18 02:18:36 UTC #765

As I real, Singleton was in the original trade. Domingo Santana was the PTBNL. Santana actually has had a career, but I don't rue losing him either.

zambonir 2020-12-18 02:59:52 UTC #766

I think we can regret the Pence trade in aggregate though.

DurhamBull 2020-12-18 03:44:22 UTC #767

Gotcha, thank you. Yes, Santana had a very good 2017 but has otherwise been pedestrian or worse, and as reported in the phormer Phils thread, he's off to Japan for next season.

BostonRoss 2020-12-18 04:07:38 UTC #768

I know I'm in the minority, but I don't regret the Pence trade at all (unless you are talking about the trade of Pence to the Giants). The price seemed high, but it turns out the Philies gave up very little.

Getting Pence increased the chances of a World Series for the Phillies in 2011. We all know it didn't work out, but the team was better with Pence in the lineup than with Mayberry or Ibañez, and therefore the team had a better chance to win a playoff game with Pence than without him.

And the Phillies would not have been competitive in the ensuing years if they had not made the trade.

I have heard the argument that the trade was a failure because the Phillies didn't win with Pence. But they didn't win with Halladay either, and I don't regret that trade, even though Travis D'Arnaud may be the catcher for the World Champion Braves in 2021.

BostonRoss 2020-12-18 04:12:44 UTC #769

Indeed. Santana's career WAR is the same as Pence's WAR for his one year with the Phillies.

Maybe the Astros regret having traded for Santana, because he was a piece in their trade to obtain eventual whistleblower Mike Fiers.

zambonir 2020-12-18 04:23:38 UTC #770

I think the argument against Pence at the time was that they were better, or at least good enough, with Brown (and Mayberry and Fransciso, sure). He's the one who lost playing time, not Ibanez (though Brown maybe should have taken that playing time). And the Phillies' pitching was so good that they were going to win 100 games and the division anyway.

Halladay clearly made the Phillies a better team for two seasons, both regular season and playoffs. So did Oswalt for 1 1/2. Pence was only good for two months and didn't really make either team he played on particularly better. I just never liked him that much as a player admittedly - to me the Phillies' choosing to replace both Burrell and Werth with more variable batting average guys helped kill the offense as surely as Howard's decline.

BostonRoss 2020-12-18 04:58:44 UTC #771

Apparently, though, the 2011 Phillies were not good enough, even with Pence. Sure, they were going to win the division with or without him, but having Pence made them a better team for the playoffs. Pence was a better player than all of the other corner outfield options they had.

I the trade ultimately didn't matter at all in terms of outcomes for the Phillies. I did find Pence much more entertaining to watch than the other corner outfielders; so I got a little enjoyment at least.

jimbomill 2020-12-18 12:35:48 UTC #772

DId Freddie Freeman also start the season with Covid? He rallied ....

andyb 2020-12-18 13:08:35 UTC #773

This is what I was getting at. One cannot dismiss last year. It is another data point with extenuating circumstances. Right now Kingery has a mix of good and bad performances. He had holes in his game when he was brought up a little too early, likely because of his contract. Then when he made some improvements the next year, the league adjusted on him.

I actually still like Kingery. Just right now I don't think we can pencil him in as a starter without a plan B. If we sign a SS the odds of everyone staying healthy for a full year are still not great. Bohm may be needed at 1B for a month or two also this year. Having 4 players (Bohm, Segura, Kingery, new SS) for 3 positions seems a reasonable hedge for the team.

Philsmania 2020-12-18 15:51:10 UTC #774

Head-to-head, Pence was much more valuable post-trade than all four of those other guys combined. If the Phillies kept Pence for several years while the Astros clung to those four guys as building blocks until they ceased to have significant value, the Phillies would have won that deal hands-down. Where the Phillies frittered away their trade victory was basically giving Pence away the following season while the Astros were able to skillfully deploy Santana and even more so, Cosart as assets. Santana brought in Fiers who was a part of a WS winning bullpen (although not a particularly valuable part). Cosart got them Marisnick who played a valuable role on that 2017 team and Moran who was a part of the package that got them Cole.

allentown 2020-12-18 16:07:59 UTC #775

If we looked like a WS contender and money was not a problem, we could afford a Plan B. Since neither of those conditions is true, and the team has very serious known holes -- beyond speculation, this is not a time for a Plan B behind Kingery. He is one of our most promising younger players. As with Bohm, Nola, Eflin and Hoskins: either they make it or we are screwed this year and in the near future. Give 2B to Kingery and see how he does on O and D. We can't afford a more promising alternative, or even an almost equally promising alternative. Pitching, catching, SS -- we will be hard-pressed to accomplish all of that half-way well. Anything else is unaffordable luxury. A fear of relying upon one's best young players is the organizational kiss of death.

flyers19rw 2020-12-18 16:19:01 UTC #776

Using Kingery at 2B has a couple of moving parts. The first one is what happens to Segura? Playing him at SS really should not be an option. Bohm isn't the strongest defender at 3B and would benefit from having a SS with good range and defense next to him. That is no Segura at this stage of his career. Using Kingery at 2B really means that the Phillies have to re-sign Didi or add a player such as Simmons, who has an excellent glove. Then again there's what to do with Segura and his expensive contract?

Ryles 2020-12-18 16:27:57 UTC #777

At Spring Training 1.0 in March, Kingery bulked up so much that he was unrecognizable. I feel that the bulk-up + Covid played a role in his poor production. Where's the Phils training dept in keeping up-to-date with off season routines? Kingery looked more like a linebacker than a 2nd baseman.

andyb 2020-12-18 16:40:25 UTC #778

Plan B can be someone like Galvis who is complementary. I want Kingery to start and play well. As with Haseley I don't want to invest much in a marginal improvement like Jackie Bradley Jr., but also don't want to give him a starting job without a backup that can realistically replace him if he is hitting .190 in June. Bohm is probably at 1B in April anyway, so we need another infielder capable of starting at the beginning of the year.

bkeich 2020-12-18 18:36:02 UTC #779

BostonRoss:

A more optimistic way to look at things is that the 2020 Phillies scored almost the same number of runs they allowed. This makes them an 80 win team. Their relievers had a collective WAR of -1.5; projected to a full season that's minus 4. In theory, just replacing the bullpen with replacement level players would add four wins. 84 wins is close to a playoff team with the expanded format. If they spent their money re-signing DD and J.T., or getting roughly equivalent replacements, they wouldn't lose much on offense, and they could be better (full season of Bohm, improvement from Kingery and Haseley, not playing Cutch as much if he can't rebound).

I'm not at all suggesting they mortgage the future to improve the 2021 team since even if they make the playoffs, they are unlikely to go far against superior teams. But I don't see a need to blow everything up.

Pretty regularly agree with you, but I disagree with this one. Even if we could return last years team, i dont think it is an 80 win team. Bohm is unlikely to be THAT good, I dont think there is any indication he is a .338 hitter. Only really Kingery is likely to be better from last year, everyone else I think had a good offensive year. In fact, I am not sure the expectation for anyone is to get better other than Kingery, and certainly Bohm and Knapp wont repeat last years success and others (Hoskins, Harper, etc.) could easily fall off since I think they were at least a little above expectation. Add to the fact that it is very unlikely that both JT and Didi are signed and this years lineup is almost certainly worse. And in the 60 game season we were surprisingly healthy, but overy 150 or so games we will have more injuries and we no depth to compensate for that in AAA.

The pitching staff is the same story, we were surprisingly healthy in our starters and they all performed at or better than expectation (except the #5 spot which is a black hole). The bullpen of course was an unmitigated disaster, but I am not sure we can expect better from the same group. Most of those guys dont belong in the majors.

I think that team, with a more normal injury rate and closer to their "norms" is not as good as last year. And once again, we can't, for financial reasons, expect that this years team will be the same quality. We are almost certainly see catcher and/or shortstop be filled by lesser players than we did. Except for CF, I dont see a position I EXPECT to have a better year this year.

Who knows, maybe we sign/acquire some serious quality, but it doesnt seem like that is really the plan. It seems like the plan is closer to "we are building to start winning in 2022 or later.

We know that neither DD or Girardi have their jobs on the line in 2021. DD obviously has a few years to succeed or fail, and Girardi has the "look at the team I am coaching" excuse for any issues as we just dont have the talent that other more successful teams have throughout the 26 man. Now when the offseason is over maybe that gap has closed, but it isnt close year.

zambonir 2020-12-18 20:28:55 UTC #780

Well, you're right, Stark said as much in his article about Dombrowski:

Middleton needed to make clear that making the playoffs in 2021 wasn’t the big goal here, even if neither of them ruled it out. The goal was to position the Phillies for long-term success and the ability to contend, year-in, year-out.

Question is, what's the best way to do that? Don't see how you start with a five-year deal to JT If you can't even win in the first two years (and the last two may not be worth it).

I think any team with this rotation and Harper/Bohm is probably a .500 team though. It is just going to have to find some wins around the edges, or make one bigger move w/o JT. With a new guy in charge I bet we're still gonna part ways with 2-3 players from last year (besides the ones who are already gone, or any reliever).

zambonir 2020-12-19 00:26:24 UTC #781

Gelb's read on the Phillies' 2021 plans seems pretty definitively that they will try to win, based on his analysis of CF.

The Phillies have allotted $42 million to fill their corner outfield spots in 2021 with Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen. They will pay Odúbel Herrera another $10 million to not play for them in 2021; his luxury tax number is lower, at $6.1 million. And, if they sign Bradley or someone else to play center field, it will mean two first-round picks (Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley) and two second-round picks (Roman Quinn and Scott Kingery) weren’t trusted enough to man center on a regular basis....

Moniak, the No. 1 pick in 2016, projects as a fourth outfielder in the majors. Haseley, picked eighth in 2017, was platooned in 2019 and 2020 by two different managers. Moniak and Haseley could grow into bigger roles, but the Phillies aren’t inclined to try that in 2021.