Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[zambonir]

We also pretty routinely say "Cutch." Some say "Dubie."

Not a ton of nicknames out there anymore! Fans and broadcasters alike seem to be on more of a first-name basis these days.

[andyb]

I know we can't read much into it but Haseley and Quinn combined for exactly 0 WAR last year while JBJ put up 2.1.

And Haseley was worth 1.8 WAR in less than half of a season and Kingery 2.8 WAR in 2019 while JBJ was worth only 1.9 WAR in a fully healthy season. And the odds are that Haseley and Kingery get better. Quinn might get healthier. And JBJ will get older and likely revert to at best the 2 WAR he produced from 2017-2019. The same argument was made that Crawford of course would not get better and Segura was worth 4 WAR each and every year. That argument was incredibly wrong and led to a trade that is the single biggest reason we did not make the playoffs last year.

[zambonir]

Well, I certainly didn't think that about Crawford. He was clearly gonna be an everyday major league SS no matter what, even with no bat, and they also traded him in part to dump Santana. Whereas Haseley still seems like a 4th OF, or at least his manager treats him like one. I don't recall you being that sold on his 2019 performance as sustainable either.

But signing JBJ doesn't actually take playing time away from Haseley. Quite the opposite, possibly! They need 4 OFs between LF and CF so they only question is whether the 4th guy should be like Bruce, or should be someone who can play better defense. If the latter Haseley should make 60-80 starts in LF with Cutch either resting or DHing. And LF might be his position anyway. If the former, he's still only making that many starts in a platoon with Quinn and/or Kingery.

[andyb]

Whereas Haseley still seems like a 4th OF, or at least his manager treats him like one. I don't recall you being that sold on his 2019 performance as sustainable either.

After 2019 I was unsure whether the defensive metrics were real. I have always thought there is a consistent 750+ OPS bat in there which would be better than JBJ from 2017-2019. I thought he could be average in CF. Just not well above average.

Signing JBJ would take playing time away from Haseley at the position where he can be an average major leaguer (CF). He just does not have the bat you would prefer in LF which is the alternative. An inexpensive power bat could be signed in LF to platoon with Cutch for less than it would cost for JBJ. Just because you can count 4 or 5 OFs does not mean you are deploying them in the right positions.

Signing veterans where you have young players is always a bad strategy even when those young players are not stars. Haseley should eventually be able to develop as much power as JBJ had but probably with a better average or OBP. At the very least we need to get value out of him while he is paid near the major league minimum. That allows money to address bigger needs.

[allentown]

Signing veterans where you have young players is always a bad strategy even when those young players are not stars

I wouldn't say always, but it certainly is a bad strategy with the Phillies current situation: reduced budget, coming off a losing season, desperately needing to get younger/cheaper with homegrown development successes, multiple bigger holes on the team than CF, the veteran does not have a high chance of being a plus contributor for the two-year minimum contract length. We have multiple young players (Haseley, Quinn, Kingery in both years and Muzziotti and... cough cough moniak in year 2) who have a shot at being ok as our CF in year one and or year two of JBJ's contract. It also might take a 3-year deal to sign him. JBJ could be a slight offensive improvement over these guys, but it hardly matters -- we had a good lineup last season but the pitching killed the team. Unless the pitching is fixed, tinkering with the lineup is just wasted effort. Getting a catcher and SS isn't tinkering, because we have next to nothing at those positions.

[zambonir]

I didn't realize JBJ was a Boras guy. That means he'll be sweet-talking Middleton as well as Dombrowski. But it also means initial rumors of what he might be worth are only coming from the agent.

[flyers19rw]

Boras can sweet talk the Phillies all that he wants but the money shouldn’t be there for a contract that would be any larger than what Renfroe got from Boston the other day. They’re similar situations-spare outfielders. The best thing that the Phillies could offer JBJ was playing time.

[zambonir]

That's hardly true. JBJ is an elite defender and an everyday CF, even if you don't think he can repeat what he did offensively last year at his age. Renfroe is a corner OF who was actually garbage last year. One can assume he'll bounce back just as one can assume Bradley will regress but you're gonna get more WAR - and positional fit - out of the latter.

With free agents it is always buyer beware/paying for past performance.

Boras is being nice, but this is actually his way of putting the Phillies on notice. Of course he'd just as soon get more of Middleton's money for his own guys than JT, even if his client wants JT.

Scott Boras, Bryce Harper’s agent, believes Phillies are committed to winning in...

[Austinfan]

Haseley has a solid track record, he's a pure hitter, while he'll never have great power, an ISO of .150 or so is in reach for him, just needs PAs. In CF he's average, in the corners, well above average. That's the profile of a 2-4 WAR OF (bad/good seasons). Not a franchise changer, but not a liability either.

Quinn isn't a starter, he's gotten enough PAs to see that he can't or won't address his fundamental flaw, trying to hit for power when his best aspect is elite speed - for him to start he has to get his OBP > .350. He's also an average CF who doesn't have a great feel for the ball, negating his speed to a certain extent.

If you could sign Bradley on the cheap to a 1-2 year deal, buying time for some prospects to emerge, that's fine - but $30M for 3 years would be a disaster. He would allow Haseley to platoon with Cutch for a year and continue to develop. He's basically Quinn with more BB and better defense. A 1-2 WAR player until his defense falls off.

[flyers19rw]

JBJ’s defense is good. However his bat, to be kind, is mediocre. At his age, that isn’t going to get better. Hasely hits better and is a lesser player in CF than Bradley but his overall package is superior. An additional plus for Hasely is that CBP doesn’t have the largest CF to patrol. That makes his range in the field more than adequate. His arm is a plus as well. There is no need to drop unnecessary money on a FA center fielder. The club has more pressing needs.

[fish]

JBJ’s defense is good. However his bat, to be kind, is mediocre. At his age, that isn’t going to get better. Hasely hits better and is a lesser player in CF than Bradley but his overall package is superior. An additional plus for Hasely is that CBP doesn’t have the largest CF to patrol.

I like JBJ, i just don't want to see him start 160 games. It gets back to the moneyball approach- there are plenty of guys who can offer real value if you use them in a way that maximizes their abilities. Roman Quinn could be an awesome 4th outfielder, late game weapon but his flaws get exposed when he plays too much.

[David_Criss]

While the Phillies had their issues the last couple of years, centerfield defense was one of them, but it is far from the biggest need going into 2021. An upgrade would be nice, but I don't see Quinn/Haseley/Herrera over JBJ or viceaversa being the difference between making the World Series or not.

[allentown]

I don't see Quinn/Haseley/Herrera over JBJ or viceaversa being the difference between making the World Series or not

That's a strange yardstick to use. Even if Middleton told Dombroski to spend up to the cap, I don't see any way to make the 2021 Phillies good enough to get to the WS.

[Philsmania]

I don't see Quinn/Haseley/Herrera over JBJ or viceaversa being the difference between making the World Series or not

That's a strange yardstick to use. Even if Middleton told Dombroski to spend up to the cap, I don't see any way to make the 2021 Phillies good enough to get to the WS.

Just get to October and hope for the best in the ensuing crapshoot?

[zambonir]

JBJ’s defense is good. However his bat, to be kind, is mediocre. At his age, that isn’t going to get better. Hasely hits better and is a lesser player in CF than Bradley but his overall package is superior.

But where's the evidence of this? Bradley has a career OPS of .732, OPS+ 94. Haseley, 712, OPS + 87. Neither are anything special with the bat, though Bradley had his moments (2015, 2016 and now 2020) and we hope that Haseley will. But right now defense clearly makes Bradley the superior overall package, and a plus player where Haseley wasn't last year (albeit in limited action).

I wouldn't worry much about them going crazy to get Bradley unless Dombrowski is personally attached. Taking on even a two-year contract for anyone other than JT seems crazy. But I also wouldn't rule out them doing whatever they can to upgrade the line-up, and CF is no less valid a spot than shortstop.

It really all turns on JT, both in terms of money and what kind of other player they need in the line-up. They can't jump on these other guys too early and then not have $ for JT but they also can't wait two months for JT and then not have options left.

The goal this year is still to make the playoffs though. And when Dombrowski says the team isn't one piece away from the World Series that doesn't mean he isn't thinking about how to get three pieces. Still might have been better if we were reading about Thad Levine trading Wheeler tomorrow, but that's not the direction of the franchise obviously.

[BostonRoss]

Maybe it's because I have seen so many recent Phillies hitting prospects fail to live up to expectations, but I am not convinced that Haseley will hit better than JBJ. As zambonir pointed out, he hasn't yet though he does not even have a full year of MLB experience yet. He's young enough that he should improve, but a lot of prospects never make the leap. And Haseley is a lesser prospect than people like Domonic Brown.

JBJ is still an elite defender although andyb is right that his defense is expected to decline at his age. It doesn't mean he won't be above average in 2021 or that he is about to fall off a cliff. And he has been a 2 oWAR hitter for five straight years, including 1.6 in 55 games last year. So it seems that it is highly probable that JBJ would improve the Phillies outfield.

Even though JBJ is an upgrade, that isn't the important question. It is more about whether spending the money elsewhere (pitching, catching, infield) would provide more of an upgrade over what we have. It seems clear that spending the money on JBJ would be an inferior option, especially given the low probability of a team that goes very far in 2021.

[allentown]

Just get to October and hope for the best in the ensuing crapshoot?

Frankly, I don't have any confidence that they can make the playoffs this year, even if Middleton goes full bore. It's easy to say just fix the pen, but that requires adding at least 4 relievers, who are actually good. Based on a 162-game season, they have to add at least 15 wins over last season for a chance at the playoffs. Even taking last year as an aberration, compared to 2019, they need to add 9 wins for a good chance at the playoffs. Doesn't sound like a lot, but it's more than they've added in any recent year, and they will need to spend just to replace JT and Didi to start sort of equal to last season. So, let's say improvements Didi and JT are both gone and that additions, plus improved performance from our young and slumping or inured players plus additions through FA and trade need to add about 14 WAR. I'm not buying that this can happen, especially if Middleton cuts payroll by $20-25 million. I am trying to be realistic here and imagine a route that gets Phillies to playoffs. I just don't see it. I know many need to be all optimism in the off-season, but after so many consecutive non-winning seasons, some where I did strongly see a playoff possibility, my optimism is dead, until the organization shows me a reason to be realistically hopeful.

One can only blame injuries for so long. Then one must conclude that something about the organization causes an excess of injuries, and/or the team simply didn't have enough talent with a normal amount of injuries. We added our new, history of winning, manager last season and we got another travesty, worse than the prior two seasons. And that was on a very large salary budget, with the rotation bolstered with the top FA pitcher on the market.

[zambonir]

Frankly, I don't have any confidence that they can make the playoffs this year, even if Middleton goes full bore. It's easy to say just fix the pen, but that requires adding at least 4 relievers, who are actually good. Based on a 162-game season, they have to add at least 15 wins over last season for a chance at the playoffs. Even taking last year as an aberration, compared to 2019, they need to add 9 wins for a good chance at the playoffs. Doesn't sound like a lot, but it's more than they've added in any recent year, and they will need to spend just to replace JT and Didi to start sort of equal to last season. So, let's say improvements Didi and JT are both gone and that additions, plus improved performance from our young and slumping or inured players plus additions through FA and trade need to add about 14 WAR. I'm not buying that this can happen, especially if Middleton cuts payroll by $20-25 million.

There's no reason to be optimistic, and really, no reason not to start a rebuild. But since that's not happening, I can certainly see the half-full glass.

• Bullpens actually are easy (and cheap) to fix. I think last year's would have sorted itself out in a normal season. One fungible, one kid and one trade acquisition (whether it was the guys we actually got or someone else) would have risen to get outs even as three or four others didn't. The market is flooded this year too so they shouldn't have a problem adding two solid guys while also finding two more on cheap or minor league deals.

• We're almost certainly going to have expanded playoffs again, which means they could still make it under-.500, if we're just trying to make it (I think it would have happened 50-65% of the time in previous full seasons, had there always been eight).

• Last year's team was pretty good, probably better than the previous two years. Offense scored the 5th-most runs in all of MLB. 7th in OPS. 3rd in OBP. Starting pitchers were 19-18 with a 4.08 ERA (10th in MLB). 311 IPs. Relievers were 9-14 (better than I would have guessed!) with a 7.06 ERA. 166 IPs. Clearly they needed a bit more length and depth from the 4th-7th starters but otherwise it really was all about the bullpen (and the doubleheaders).

• Bringing back JT and signing a SS is still pretty key. But if you do that while trading Segura you've also freed up some money. If you don't bring back JT and sign a SS, there are others ways to spend the money.

• And we gotta assume Dombrowski isn't just going to quietly fill the obvious holes and call it a day. Gotta expect a couple of semi-significant trades, and that was probably true even if Rice was still in charge (what with him being out there floating Wheeler and Segura).

In the end, yes, a ridiculous amount of things need to break right: some old players need to not decline, some young players need to find another level. Really the main thing is to not do anything that makes the 2022 and 2023 teams worse or sign anyone who would be difficult to trade over the next two years.

[andyb]

The question around whether to rebuild really involves the willingness to trade Nola. We just don't have much other young talent now that would generate huge trade value in return. So if we don't trade Nola then we at least need to give this core of the team one more chance.

It is also more possible these days to do a retool on the fly if you are a wealthy team. While the Phillies have a relatively high payroll, it is also not full of albatross contracts as Harper and Wheeler look good at the moment. Beyond that we really don't have a lot of big mid-term financial commitments. This makes a retool more plausible because we can fill out the majority of our payroll with new players based on smarter talent evaluation.

None of this means that a retool would work. It probably requires young players like Haseley and Kingery and Eflin and Bohm to get dramatically better. But if we are not willing to pull the trigger on Nola, then the path is to replace our current payroll occupants with better players over the next 3 years and see if it works, while hopefully not trading much of our farm system.

[EDmuch]

Good point: a rebuild means looking to trade Nola. If we are not willing to do that, it does become a matter of "retoolng" rather than "rebuilding".