Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[California_Dreamin]

allentown...please re-read my post. I never proclaimed that with the hiring of DD the Phils were suddenly Kings of the East. I didn't even imply it. The last time I looked he couldn't pitch or catch and the Phils are in healthy need of both, I understand that.

What I said, and somewhat emphatically, was that I believe the hiring makes the Phils relevant again and back in the dance. And I think that both statements are pretty hard to deny. The Phils of 5 days ago were not only not relevant but almost seemed as if they wanted it that way. Look, I still rank the Phils as a 4th place team right now, sans JT and Didi, but even Dombrowski's biggest detractors are convinced he will turn this franchise around in short order and why is that such a bad thing? This franchise has been wandering in the wilderness for 9 years and I honestly don't believe the phans are ready for a long term vision right now, they want the team to win.

This move seems similar to the hiring of Gillick and while this team isn't as young as that team was, I am not sure its any worse [if they re-sign JT.] If you recall the 2006 team was abysmal till Gillick moved some pieces and turned the keys over to Hamels, Utley, Howard and Rollins. And from that time till Howard tore his Achillies Heel and Halladay injured his shoulder the team was at worst relevant and at best, the best.

I think DD has a more than decent enough resume to indicate he is capable of the same. And as a long suffering Phillies phan, I don't see that as a bad thing.

[zambonir]

At least now, a few months removed from the recurring bullpen nightmare, Girardi can laugh about it.

“I really believe that we could have told the hitters what was coming and it wouldn’t have turned out as bad as it did,” Girardi said. “I really do.”

Phillies focused on depth to rebuild their bullpen from the ashes of 2020

[David_Criss]

Joe Girardi on offseason, more | 12/14/2020

Listening to this, I get the feeling Jean Segura will not be the Phillies SS. Joe mentions the team has Segura on its roster and mentions they need a SS within the same 90-seconds.

[EDmuch]

Not exactly a ringing endorsement of Kingery either.

[andyb]

After last season I don't think you can pencil Kingery into a starting role. He is going to need to earn his playing time. Whether that means a placeholder defensive SS like Galvis in front of him or a full time SS like Didi probably does not matter.

It also means that if we trade Segura we need to acquire or sign both a starting SS and a starting/platooning 2B.

[EDmuch]

Without having sufficient funds, I have no idea how DD can fill all the holes in this franchise

[bigegypt0417]

I can't imagine he came here with the understanding they couldn't spend money.

[andyb]

I just think he was told that the payroll would be more modest this year, at like $180 or $190 million because of the pandemic and cashflow. That is ownership's prerogative of course.

I think we have like $68.5 million of room below the competitive balance threshold assuming normal 40-man roster costs. Here is the Cots page:

Google Sheets

If we are at $180-$190 million we then have $38-$48 million left to spend assuming no subtractions from the current roster like the assumed Velazquez $4.5 million.

Then we probably have to pivot around Realmuto. If Realmuto signs for $25 million AAV I assume we are going to be at the higher $190 million number. That means $23 million to get a shortstop, starting pitcher, backup OF, and 3 or 4 relievers. Pencil in $12 million for the SS and you have 4 or 5 guys signed for $1-$3 million.

In the non-JT scenario we sign a platoon catcher for like $3 million. Then probably have $35-$40 million to spend on everything else.

All this is doable. It is going to be a depressed second tier free agent market out there. There is a pretty good case that there will be significant value in these $3 million signings. I am sure DD knows this. He wants Realmuto, but there is a strategy to stay under budget with multiple low dollar signings no matter what he does. We also can probably get JT on a severely backloaded deal with a higher AAV but a lower current salary. Frankly future AAV is a lesser concern this year because the threshold is going to go up in future collective bargaining deals. We won't approach it this year, so offer JT 5/125 with only $10 million this year. That might get it done.

[Philsmania]

It's also entirely possible that Realmuto simply isn't going to get near what he wants and that his hopes of setting the standard for a catcher have been dashed by the pandemic and other factors. Maybe something not exactly to his liking with an opt-out after two or three years?

[Philsmania]

Phillies interested in JBJ?

What sort of upgrade would Jackie Bradley Jr. be for Phillies?

[zambonir]

I'm sure it will actually be enjoyable for Dombrowski to figure out how to put together a roster with limitations. But the reality is he's still not trying to build an immediate World Series contender. He knew this - and that there'd be payroll cuts - when he took the job. He also can't go on a front office hiring spree after they just laid off so many people - and he knew that too.

A job is still a job, he probably had a six-figure consulting fee with Nashville that didn't turn into real money for several years, now he makes $4 or $5 million a year (maybe more). If Middleton said "I expect you to win a championship but I also expect you to cut payroll" maybe you don't take the job, because that is an unreasonable demand. But that's not where this team is.

If he finds a way to turn Segura's salary into a player who fills a different need (whether straight up or someone cheap accompanied by $ coming back) that would go a long way. And I imagine he'll trade an outfielder if he can/needs to.

[andyb]

JBJ would be a mistake for anything more than a couple million. In 2017-2019 he had consecutive OPS of 726, 717, and 738. In the limited messed up short season of 2020 he was better at 814 but that is a small sample size and he'll be 31 this year. That is the age when his defense will start to slip so one gets an older CF likely to have a 720 OPS that is no longer plus defensively.

I'd prefer sticking with Haseley and Quinn. CF is NOT our problem. We have 5 potential options on the 40-man roster. Haseley, Quinn, Kingery, Moniak, and Muzziotti. Some combination of those players should get us 2+ WAR and be better than JBJ. It is actually the one place where we have high minors organizational depth. I hope DD is smarter than this.

[zambonir]

That fact that DD had JBJ in Boston makes it a bit more likely, unfortunately. Much like Gillick brought in so many of his old faves. I'd prefer a one-year deal of course. But if you sign him for two you are trading one of Haseley, Moniak or Quinn for pitching probably.

But I'm not sure any Phillies GM was going to be content to stand pat in the OF. There's a lot of scenarios where Kingery isn't in the CF mix (i.e. Segura is a SS or they trade Segura), Girardi simply doesn't seem to believe in Haseley, and Quinn remains an unknown over 162 games (plus he isn't even very good overall).

They just have to choose between a LF bat or a CF. If they signed JBJ, Haseley becomes your other LF and Quinn your bench guy. DH situation probably doesn't matter either way - Cutch probably can't start more than 100 games in the field regardless.

[andyb]

The criticism is mainly that JBJ is not that good and he is likely to regress at his age. I am all for bringing in a better CF and rearranging the current pieces. That is not what signing JBJ would do though. We need to get better and younger. JBJ probably does neither.

[zambonir]

Fair enough, but not a lot of CFs out there. Expecting/paying him to do what he did in the short 2020 would be folly, but he'd probably still make the team better (defensive upgrade, offensive neutral or better).

And getting younger is a tough order! Youth/controllability only comes with trading prospects and we don't have much to offer there.

If we stipulate the 2021 Phillies are trying to make the playoffs while (ironically) trying to ape that Red Sox team short-term fixes, it's something you have to consider. If you don't think that's realistic of course it would be better to take one more year and see what Haseley has, and also hope Moniak becomes at least a major leaguer.

[andyb]

I think the odds are better than 50-50 that some combination of Haseley and Quinn would deliver more WAR in 600 plate appearances than JBJ would. I'd want to see more of Moniak in CF before judging whether he can handle the position, but anything from him would presumably be a midseason bonus.

We should sign players like JBJ where we have less depth. So $3 million for a platoon LF or $3 million for a 5th starter option would be money better spent. When I say "get younger", it means not replacing young players with older and mediocre players. That means playing Haseley in CF until he shows he can't do that. I am the first to question whether his CF defense can be plus over a long period. But I also think it could be as good as a regressing JBJ (who should not be considered plus any more at his age).

[allentown]

The biggest problem with a two-year deal for JBJ is that the available $ are badly needed elsewhere: pitching, more pitching, catching, SS. The second biggest problem is we need to develop team-controlled, low-cost players. We need to see what Haseley and Quinn can do. Since we are already paying him, I'd also like to see what Herrera can do in ST. Kingery at 2B. Moniak in AAA. Muzziotti in AA or AAA.

[andyb]

Christian Bethancourt back on a minor league deal. Assume he backs up at AAA and is insurance.
https://twitter.com/MattGelb/status/1338902961485979649

[zambonir]

I know we can't read much into it but Haseley and Quinn combined for exactly 0 WAR last year while JBJ put up 2.1. Throw in an injury to Quinn or Haseley getting more ABs from the other side of the plate and I don't think it would be close, even if JBJ regresses. And at 31 he probably has a good year or two left.

I agree that focusing elsewhere and seeing what we have is also a valid plan, I'm just not sure it aligns with the team's goals, or their internal assessment of Haseley (even with a new boss).

It'll be interesting to see what Herrera can do but the given the decline curve just for lack of game activity, plus age, plus how bad a player he'd become, I think that's still a longshot. He should at least get a ST invite, but it's also possible the franchise decision to keep him at arm's length was above Klentak and MacPhail's head (ownership and the business side). To me you either release him or try to fold him into a trade (where he becomes, essentially, the Juan Nicasio in a Carlos Santana deal). I don't see how he could even make the team out of ST, it will still be too crowded, and the sample size/level of competition won't really be enough to see what he has.

[julio]

Let me try something...

Bradley

Yeah...that wasn’t hard.