Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[zambonir]

Dave Dombrowski: 'Unanimous feeling' Phillies front office wants to bring back...

[Austinfan]

"Dombrowski went on to say that he does not believe the team is one piece away from competing for a World Series, and they do not want to sacrifice long-term success for short-term success."

This is very reassuring, in that he's not delusional.
And it suggests that he has buy-in by Middleton before taking the job, so he won't be pressured to do stupid things to please his owner.

[zambonir]

What's done is done, but it's hard to overstate the extent of the organizational failure at every level. Everything the Phillies did from 2019 to 2020 said they were just shy of competing - merely competing, not that much to ask! - for the World Series. They spent like it, they added older players for it, they fired the coach for it, they added even more payroll last year for it. And then suddenly Middleton woke up when he looked at the CBT tax. And then again in the pandemic.

But "retool" not "rebuild" still suggests shorter-term goals. They can't do the Boston timeline, but neither is the current core suited by the Detroit timeline. If neither is an option I don't see how you do anything other than a rebuild.

[schillingfan]

The best way to retool on the fly is to lose money in 2021 and take advantage of everyone else cutting back. I believe they will mostly get a full season in as by April we should have turned the corner with vaccinations. If everyone else is being cheap, be the opposite.

[zambonir]

That's true, and maybe things will shift, but so far the Phillies are one of the corner-cutters, while the Braves and some other teams have been aggressive about trades and moderate (but not cheap) FA signings. It's still a buyer's market, mind you. If they think one of the three shortstops is going to have to settle for a one-year deal or JT is going to come off his original price, they are in no position to pay the higher early price like they have been in the past, so why should they?

Everyone letting Brad Hand go is still pretty mystifying though.

And I don't think you can assume a normal first-half of the season. There simply won't be enough immunity, or comfort level. Either way, by the time we know, the rosters will be largely set.

Will make for an interesting deadline if suddenly all teams are enjoying the return of revenue, though form their position it still doesn't make up for what was lost.

[DurhamBull]

Dave Dombrowski: 'Unanimous feeling' Phillies front office wants to bring back...

The most remarkable thing I read in that article is that the Phils have the 13th best odds to win the World Series on a pubic betting site.

[zambonir]

But that does show you how non-terrible the core team was last year. Not great, but one of the middle 10 teams. Solid offense, excellent top three in the rotation.

And bettors are probably (perhaps mistakenly) assuming they will spend $, re-sign JT, fix the bullpen. And overrating stars. Maybe it's all just Bryce fans in Nevada.

[LoneStarPhan]

Well the Phillies were in contention for the post season over a significant part of the last 3 seasons. In 2018, they played about 2/3 of the season at a pace to win a division, but ended with a third of the season at the level of the worst team in baseball. Again, 2019 saw a very good first part of the season and again, a significant collapse. The Phillies seemed a lock for the post season this past season after 52 of the 60 games were in the books, but blew any chance by losing 7 of the final 8 games. Clearly, they have weaknesses, but there were strengths as well. I certainly don't think they are ready to be contenders in 2021, but I will enter the new season with the optimism that it is not impossible. I hope DD oversees some moves that improve the team. From there, we will see what happens.

[EDmuch]

There have been rumors that the Phils have been in touch with Hendricks and actually put some numbers on the table for him to consider.

[andyb]

A few weeks ago Jim at PhuturePhillies said we were heavy on Trevor May but then suddenly backed off before the Mets signed him. That sounds like management not ready to negotiate beyond a certain pre-determined price. One wonders with Dombrowski on board if the shackles are off a bit to at least let them be competitive in negotiations.

[EDmuch]

I would certainly hope that management has given DD room to spend some money on players that would significantly improve the team beyond just re-signing JT. For example I would like to see them re-sign Alvarez. Splurge on one high quality reliever. See if they can get Jackie Bradley on a one year deal to play center. Try to sign one of the three shortstops to a short term deal. Seems to me there should be moves that can improve the team and not bankrupt Middleton.

[zambonir]

After reading the coverage at Inquirer.com and the Athletic last night I have to say I'm pretty pessimistic.

I mean, open mind, and things can only get better in some ways, but it feels like the Phillies have gone back to being the Phillies, not that they ever truly stopped: hiring from the Old Boy's Network, having that same classic reactionary approach you often get with managers (hiring someone who is as far away from the last guy as possible), and just not really being in a comparable position as a franchise to where past examples in Dombrowski's career (or the example of Gillick coming here) apply. I also think, that, as with the manager and firing Klentak, they caved to bad PR. Not that those were the wrong moves, or that their apparent plan to leave MacPhail and Rice in place was good, but they obviously changed their mind and rushed their timeline after seeing how that plan played in the media.

Also, while I know he always was a candidate, just not available, it also feels like he really only got the job because the first two choices (among many others) didn't want it (and Michael Hill wasnt part of the Old Boy's Network, gee, I wonder why).

From an organizational standpoint it will be interesting to see if Dombrowkski can actually work with what is already in place (i.e. Bonifay and the Driveline guys), not that we're sure those guys have it figured out.

On the bright side, from a fan's standpoint, and given what is on the roster, if he does short-term success followed by a crash, well, that's still better than what we already had going, mediocrity followed by a crash.

I do not think this hire has increased the budget. Maybe he can change Middleton''s mind, but the numbers are the numbers. They have $141 committed now and I doubt they'll top $180, and even that might be high.They either hope to get JT for less and get some bargains, or it's no JT and 3-4 $8-12 million pieces.

They blew a lot of smoke yesterday, on the one hand saying they want him back and it's a "retool not a rebuild," but on the other all but saying the goal is not to win anything of note this year. At best you can interpret Dombrowski saying the Phillies are not one piece away as hoping he finds a way to get, or change up five or six pieces. But some of our most tradeable players are still simultaneously guys you don't want to give up on and guys with currently depressed value (Kingery, Haseley, even Rhys given his injury).

[California_Dreamin]

zambonir...you don't bring in a Dombrowski if you don't intend to win and he doesn't come if you are looking to rebuild. If the Phils were interested in treading water they would have simply hired Hill, a solid choice but oh so vanilla in terms of seismic shock.

Look, I am unsure what Dombrowski is likely to do this off season, he is certainly getting a late start. But some guys are just different than others and DD is one of them. I was on a Tiger site today and surprisingly DD was the big talk and the overwhelming consensus was that the fans would love to have him back.

I think this was a great move, the Phils after too many years in the wilderness are finally relevant again. DD knows everyone, is highly respected, has negotiated with every agent and dealt with almost every GM. The Phils are no longer the guy sitting on the sidelines, hoping someone will dance with them [think Klentak], instead they are now the guy co-favored to either win or at least compete in the dance contest!

Dance, Dave, Dance!

[zambonir]

They've got nothing to lose, certainly. No matter who they hired, it was either gonna have to be a rebuild or short-term gain for long-term pain. But Detroit was a long time ago, and Boston wasn't truly a success for him (at most, he did a great job completing Epstein and Cherington's work, and they still wanted him out as a soon as possible).

I don't see how the Phillies were sitting on the sidelines under Klentak. They made some huge trades and signed some of the best players in baseball. It just didn't work, which happens. They are saying the right things - that this is about rebuilding the whole franchise not just the major league team in front of our face- but they said all the right things in 2016 too.

I also don't think we can underestimate the extent to which Dombrowski needed the job. Nashville's expansion being off the table for at least two years was bound to greatly affect his income (in that he was merely a consultant at the moment, and needed the team to actually be admitted to MLB to start earning front office/part-owner money).

Certainly he will be better than the two guys he's replacing. And just not being attached to the previous regime's players can't be a bad thing.

[jimbomill]

you don't bring in a Dombrowski if you don't intend to win and he doesn't come if you are looking to rebuild.

in my book, that's the exact truth. DD wasn't going to go anywhere that had a onerous budget of the wrong oversight. I too am optimistic with this hire.

[allentown]

If the Phils were interested in treading water they would have simply hired Hill, a solid choice but oh so vanilla in terms of seismic shock.

I'm not sure what this means, in this context, but if it means what I think is intended, then I disagree. I see Hill as more forward-looking and potentially innovative and Dombrowski as the plain-vanilla, waning-years-of-his-career, old-school, plain-vanilla guy. That doesn't mean I see Dombrowski as a poor choice -- he's likely the best we can expect our owners to accept. He has a long record. We can expect him not to do a poor job. I don't expect him to shake things up greatly or leave us with a modern organization in his wake, as a Hill might. The plus for we fans is that he is just the sort of guy to shake more $ out of ownership this year than Hill would have been able to achieve. That ups the odds of keeping JT.

I don't at all understand how you think we are now the guys co-favored to win. I think despite whatever Dombrowski does that we are very definitely below the Braves in likelihood to win the NL East. In my ranking, we are also behind the Mets, but to a significantly lesser degree.

It won't happen, at least not for this season, but I prefer to see Dombrowski paired with a modern GM.

I am not thrilled by Dombrowski's comment that he is going to move slowly in making organizational changes. I'd like to stick with Driveline and give them a fair chance to make our development side better. Our international side needs major change yesterday, before even more opportunities are missed. Too many recent changes to touch the development side or much of the MLB field staff this season, but the problems on the international side are too serious to wait.

I don't see Dombrowski as a seismic shock. Competent, where Klentak was not and certainly not a callow fad chaser, but other than on the PR side, he is no seismic shock. And I'm not saying Dombrowski is less talented than Gillick -- it is a difference in the organizations they inherited. The Phillies organization which Gillick joined had plus MLB talent and should have been more successful than they had been, based on that talent. They just needed a push over the top. They also had more talent in the near pipeline. They were an organization that had and was developing an impressive collection of home-grown MLB talent. The current Phillies are nothing like that.

[Austinfan]

Probably the key decision to be made by Dombrowski is the choice of GM, whoever he brings in will sit as his feet for four years before he returns to Nashville. If he brings in a retread lackey, well ...

But ideally he brings in a young, innovative GM to be groomed to replace him, who can counsel him on analytics and new approaches to development - and that would be a hopeful sign.

[allentown]

ideally he brings in a young, innovative GM to be groomed to replace him,

Everything I've read says he's not bringing in a GM, at least this season. I guess that gives Rice the first shot at the role you describe. I know next to nothing about Rice's ability or outlook -- if he even has a baseball philosophy.

[andyb]

That is my take too. It kind of doesn't matter as much who is GM because Dombrowski has clearly implied he is taking over all major baseball decisions. He already has people around to interpret the baseball analytics. Clearly he will need a GM to take over the day to day operations, but big stuff like the overall direction of the roster, philosophy on rebuilding, and how to manage the payroll are with DD.

[zambonir]

Dombrowski was hired to be president in Detroit and then fired the GM and gave himself the job.

Dombrowski was hired to be president in Boston, Cherington quit, Hazen was promoted. But when Hazen left one year later Dombrowski never hired a GM.

I imagine Rice will remain in his position. If he got a raise to take the 'interim' title maybe he gets to keep the raise. They still have to pay all the other guys for two more years. One would hope there are some changes, but nobody seems likely to get the title or salary that comes with "general manager," and there certainly won't be a hiring search. They filled both jobs, for all intents and purposes. I also don't think we can assume Dombrowski intends to only stay until Nashville calls him back. He probably isn't even allowed to speak to them. Ideally he is successful and could be President for seven-eight years, even if he does bring on a GM too. If he's only here for three it's not gonna be because he won a ring.

Phillies Hire Dave Dombrowski as President

With regard to a fear of making the team older and more expensive: that is easily accomplished by trading minor leaguers and young vets for established veterans, but much less for FA signings, since most FA signings (unlike the monster Harper deal), especially in the current climate, only effect 1-3 years (a JT signing, which I don't expect, more likely 4-5 years).. In any case, I think immediate damage of this sort is less likely and less severe since Covid has our 2021 budget and the lux cap ceiling $20-25 lower that it is likely to be in 2022, leaving a good deal of space.

I think the people who believe Dombrowski will increase the Phillies' willingness/ability to spend money are just wishing (not you). Their only hope is that the market is depressed enough that there's enough to go around at a decreased (but still high) level of spending. But I also think he will trade minor leaguers and young vets for established veterans. Not a ton of them, and hopefully it will be mitigated by moving Segura. But I reckon at least one of the below won't be in the organization on Opening Day (in order of likelihood)

Moniak (obviously also not a huge loss)
Haseley
Quinn
Stott
Kingery
Hoskins