Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[andyb]

And this is why I have mixed feelings. I want a good GM (which Dombrowski generally is) who can improve the current team and build the organization at the same time. That is the mandate I would give him as an owner, not a win immediately mandate.

We are not the 2006 Phillies that Gillick took over. We just don't have a young and inexpensive core. And we have a current GM in Klentak that did not maintain the farm system that well while getting to a relatively expensive roster. This does not mean we need to rebuild. It just means we need to rework the team in place by making smart personnel decisions that don't really trade any net future talent (net means that some prospect trades are OK, at the same time that some veteran for prospects where we need them trades would also be OK).

[zambonir]

Dombrowski is now the new baseball president for the Phillies. Big hire.

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) December 10, 2020

[andyb]

Fangraphs on the rule 5 picks. He sees Holder as a late inning defensive sub and that is about it. I just don't know if that logic holds assuming the team signs a starting shortstop. Then Kingery does not have a starting job so you have a defensive sub at all three infield positions right there. Would we need a second defensive sub? We'll probably have a weak hitting backup catcher and likely Quinn on the bench too. That leaves one outfield spot that can hit and platoon with Cutch. Would the 5th bench spot go to Holder?

The 2020 Rule 5 Draft Scouting Reports

[Austinfan]

Holder put up a RC+ 119 in AA in 2019, then basically lost last season. Injuries have held him back, only about 1750 PA in the minors, so there's reason to believe he could be a sleeper. As a plus fielder it's not like he has to pound the ball (Crawford didn't exactly tear it up) to be valuable, and it's not like he's been lucky, that 2019 season was with a .295 BABIP. Exactly the kind of player you take a chance on in the Rule 5 draft.

[BostonRoss]

Thanks for sharing; that’s a positive record overall. Some key acquisitions for the world championship team. Trading Moncada in the Sale deal was a steep price, but the Sox probably don’t win 2018 without that trade.

The Sox current problems are due large part to a very thin farm system (sounds familiar). Dombrowski does bear some responsibility for that.

His tenure with the Red Sox is somewhat reminiscent of Gillick’s in Philly. The core players were already in place, and some key moves put the team over the top. Other than the Freddy Garcia debacle, Gillick’s moves really didn’t hurt the future. I’m pretty happy with the outcome of Bourn for Lidge.

[andyb]

Holder put up a RC+ 119 in AA in 2019, then basically lost last season. Injuries have held him back, only about 1750 PA in the minors, so there's reason to believe he could be a sleeper

119 for a 25 year old in AA is not that good. And for a former first round pick who actually was not injured that much. No really serious injuries and 1,750 PA is a fair amount of playing time for 4.5 years (and he probably was simply benched for some of that). Everyone lost last year so that does not make him any better. It only makes him 27 years old with no major league playing time next year. He is a year OLDER than Crawford, so any comparison to their offensive output at various levels is just laughable.

He is a cheap utility guy that can play defense. That is it. Exactly the kind of guy you do not draft in the rule 5 because there are lots of Gosselins and Torreyes type players that are better and don't use a roster spot all winter.

[flyers19rw]

There’s no way that DD came here to oversee a cost cutting program. I can see him going in big time to re-sign Realmuto. If that doesn’t happen, look for the Phillies to use that money to do a serious upgrade at another position. As others have said, Lindor? When opening day happens, look for the Phillies to have a formidable team in the field, a starting rotation that will be solid and a rebuilt BP. This team will be highly competitive.
If the BP was in order last year and not so many guys banged up from playing too many games in a compressed schedule, they’d have made the POs. The phans are disappointed with the results from last year but this is not a bad club. Have to keep in mind how outside of normal the 2020 season was in many ways.

[xogfog]

I'm wondering what they think about Stott at this point, you block him if you sign a big time shortstop to a long term deal. 3B is occupied by Bohm, so where could you put Stott if you sign a Lindor? Move him to 2B and let Kingery be a super sub again, spotting him at SS, 2B and CF?

[zambonir]

I would agree, you'd think Dombrowski doesn't take - or get - this job if the goal isn't to win. But I still don't know how you square that with reducing payroll. Stark is still taking that at face value, i.e.:

When you bring on someone like Dave Dombrowski, you’re making a commitment to winning.

That doesn’t mean the Phillies are ready to win in 2021, when they seem likely to cut payroll, wave so long to free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto and concentrate on restructuring their front office and player-development system. But no team hires a Dave Dombrowski just to stop by for a couple of years and tread water.

Lindor, like Betts, may not ever hit the market. We'll see on that I guess.

[Austinfan]

Yeah, and Victorino was s defensive CF with a questionable bat.

Not saying Holder is a lock, rather, there is the upside that he can hit well enough to be a plus player at SS, where "good hitting" is far lower standard than other positions, which is why I brought up Crawford.

The reason he's a sleeper is after a solid 2019, instead of a 2020 in AAA where he could continue to develop and reveal his ceiling, COVID came along. Which made him a tough projection. I'd point out that Freddie Galvis took a few years to become a decent hitting (mostly power, never great contact)/good fielding SS. 8 WAR over 5 seasons at SS, from 25-29. Not a great player, but if you could obtain Galvis at no cost and minimum wage, you'd consider it a great move.

And of course, Rule 5 means zero risk, it's not like we had to expose anything of value.

[bkeich]

If Holder is good or bad, it is a fairly bad sign. In order to keep him on the roster you probably have to start Kingery or Segura at SS and let Holder be the utility player (unless you carry two backup middle infielders).

It is just a sign that they don’t intend to pursue Didi unless his price plummets. This is looking more and more like a 70 win team.

I wish we would have taken a flame throwing reliever that wasn’t ready that we could stash at the end of the bullpen. Taking a position player is harder to “hide”

[Dirk41]

He'll play short.... for the Rockies or Indians

[Austinfan]

I doubt Holder will influence any other decision.

They don't have to decide to keep him until the end of ST, at which time they'll have a month to judge him, and they can always make a deal with the Yankees and keep him to play in AAA. He's a Rule 5 longshot, maybe your hitting coach can spot a mechanical flaw or maybe he was turning the corner and no none knew because of 2020. Or maybe he's your basic .200 hitting good field utility guy.

[zambonir]

You can't really hide a reliever these days, and probably especially not this season. Though they sure managed to hide David Hale!

I can't imagine Holder is anywhere near the player Galvis was. Freddy was a plus major league defensive player at 22, albeit playing 2B.

But it doesn't matter. Maybe we have a young Andres Blanco, maybe we have a young Wilson Valdez. Either way they can spare the 40-man spot for now, and if he beats out Torreyes etc. no big deal either way. You do have to think Barber (and even Girardi) signed off on him.

And I don't think it tells you anything about the Phillies other plans (not to mention the guy making decisions today isn't the one who will be making them on Monday). Right now, they haven't re-signed Didi, and they haven't traded Segura, so why not improve the depth?

That said, Didi certainly isn't coming back if any other team offers him a multi-year deal, or more than he made last year.

[andyb]

Yeah, and Victorino was s defensive CF with a questionable bat.

And at age 24 before he was drafted Victorino had a 818 OPS in AA and AAA. Better than Holder at age 25 in AA. Sometimes you just ignore basic facts to stretch your points. Nobody thinks Holder can hit. It was not really a solid 2019. It was a barely hanging on 2019 if you are projecting someone to be a major leaguer.

Someone will get lost in a DFA because they hold him all winter. That plus $100K is the cost.

[zambonir]

Someone will get lost in a DFA because they hold him all winter. That plus $100K is the cost.

We don't know that yet though. There still might be some trades where the returns don't take up space. If they sign some relievers, guys like Arano or (as you yourself have said) Irvin become expendable. Heck, Hale still is too. And so is Kyle Garlick. For all we know, if they make a big move for a SS, they will just waive Holder on the same day.

And also, for all we know, Dave Dombrowski is going to come in and put some other guys on the block. I don't think we can assume all of Quinn, Kingery, Segura, Haseley and Moniak are here by April. Supposedly Velasquez is still available. Obviously everyone but Moniak still has to be replaced by another 40-man player (unless someone like Suarez goes in the rotation), but this isn't a big deal until there's actually a move to evaluate.

[jimbomill]

hat is it. Exactly the kind of guy you do not draft in the rule 5 because there are lots of Gosselins and Torreyes type players that are better and don't use a roster spot all winter

Well stated

[andyb]

Disagree there. While we know that trades and other events can impact the members of the 40-man roster and it is very possible any one player like Holder or Hale will survive the winter, it is inarguable that tying up a spot in any marginal player decreases your flexibility when doing winter moves. There will almost certainly be more than 40 players who are part of the 40-man roster this winter. We lack a catcher. We lack at least one starting pitcher. We probably need to add at least one outfielder and one shortstop.

Those spots have to come from somewhere and if you are making trades or cutting people to save Holder's spot, then you are making those moves to protect a marginal, easily replaceable player.

Holder only makes sense if they see him as a cheap alternative to Maton for the 25th roster spot. There are lots of players out there that could fill that role just as easily.

[Austinfan]

Holder makes sense if the people who know him think he might have turned the corner.
Gosselin is what he is, no upside.
You take a Rule 5 player b/c there's possibly some upside you might bring out in TC.
It's not like the Phillies are loaded with talent that exposing some scrub off the 40 will make a rat's ass of difference.
If Holder really meant exposing someone they want to keep they don't have to keep Holder.

[zambonir]

I don't know that he can or has turned a corner, but clearly someone - Ned Rice, Barber, Ondo - specifically decided they liked him!