Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[Patchmk88]

We are going to have a disgruntled group. If they really want to act like some impoverished franchise, they probably need to blow the whole team up.

[andyb]

Yeah. Letting rumors like that get out are a reason for mass mutiny. Wheeler would only have trade value (i.e. bringing in young talent) if we took a good deal of his salary back in dead contracts or just paid for half his remaining salary. Doesn't sound like the team wants to do that, however.

So we are left with a bad team and expensive cable bills. Time to cut the cord to send the franchise a message?

[Austinfan]

If the owners are that cash poor, then sell the team, what's the fun in owning a team that's never going to be competitive, especially in a market where fans aren't grateful to have a team (because even if you moved it, another would be moved into the 5th biggest TV market) but expect a winner.

[zambonir]

The owners aren't cash poor, they just aren't willing to spend what it takes to win with the roster they chose to build (and Middleton played just as big a role in that choice as Klentak). And are now realizing they aren't truly contenders for the next two seasons.

Though I still think this is more of a "we'll listen on anybody" rumor than a "they're actively shopping" rumor. And also this is an MLB thing as much as a Phillies thing (and not just about the pandemic...also the inevitable labor stoppage next year).

I reckon this is also not unrelated to the Segura rumors - it's just that, apparently, those rumors weren't about clearing money for a new SS or to sign JT, but rather about clearing money period. Seems like they quickly realized Segura is immovable, as is Cutch, and they don't want to trade Nola or Harper which would really start the mutiny (if Harper doesn't start one himself). So Wheeler is the only guy with some value who also probably won't be pitching well by the time this team is good again.

It's not like we haven't discussed this already, their only options were to try and make a '93/2013 Red Sox run or start another rebuild. I guess they can't hire Michael Hill soon enough, he's the fire sale expert.

[zambonir]

Haha

Through a team spokesperson, Phillies managing partner John Middleton and team president Andy MacPhail indicated that the idea that the Phillies are shopping Wheeler is categorically untrue.

Sources: Phillies open to trade offers for Wheeler

[flyers19rw]

Buster Trollney

[fish]

Hopefully this lights a fire under Middleton to be more transparent about what he plans to do with the team this winter, otherwise having to put out fires like this is going to become routine. All I get from them is a plan not to improve a middling team while losing time on players prime.

[zambonir]

Olney's very solid, not at all like Heyman or Nightengale. There's no way these conversations didn't happen. That doesn't mean a trade will. But the team hasn't exactly been shy about crying poor. They aren't trying to get Middleton's trophy back.

What's fun to contemplate about Middleton and MacPhail's denial is, do they even know whether it's true?

[bigegypt0417]

I don't think those two would say anything but that. The owner and president can't admit to that.

[zambonir]

Yeah, that's not only a boilerplate denial, I would go so far as to call it a lie.

[allentown]

There has been a lot from the team which doesn't make logical sense. Middleton claimed he put some of his own money into the team this past season, because of losses. That sounds impossible with multiple owners. The only two ways Middleton can put money into the team are to treat it as a gift to his poorhouse fellow owners, or to increase his stake in ownership. I've seen nothing about a larger share to Middleton and why would he treat the Bucks as charity cases? There is a problem with multiple owners, which has plagued the Phillies since Ruly Carpenter sold the team: the budget is set by what the least well off member of the ownership group needs to make their own personal finances work. Do they just need break-even on cash flow? Do they need a 'profit' to take a minimum draw from the team? With the delicately balanced 48% share of ownership it would be contentious for Middleton to increase his ownership stake.

The value of the franchise has surely increased significantly. What a normal business would do is either issue bonds or draw down a line of credit secured by the net value of the team, in order to get through a rough patch like this.

There seems to be a lot of exaggerating and outright lying going on by the Phillies and their ownership group.

How do you unload a Wheeler and entice a top baseball-side management guy as president or even a top new GM? We look like a befuddled disaster.

All adds to my sense that the Phillies are treating 2021 as a throwaway year.

[zambonir]

The partnership structure forbids majority ownership, even. But you make a good point! Honestly I think Middleton is just speaking for the ownership group, as managing partner, or he's just being egotistical. Seems more likely he and the Bucks (who are just a single ownership entity) agreed to put in that money together, which they claim they used mostly to keep people employed all season. But they don't have the stomach to do it again.

I don't think anyone is cash poor though. I also doubt Gillick and the Montgomery estate (which apparently still has a small slice, out of which Gillick's was also carved) have any obligations - their shares are probably non-revenue, non-loss, non-voting equity stakes.

It's more about that long-standing philosophy of running the business like a business - even though the American way of running a business also involves debt. But I'm sure they also do have debt - that's a big part of the picture for a lot of the MLB cutbacks. The Cubs, for instance, have to make payments on their little shopping mall set-up that is now a giant money-loser... but is also one of those things that allows them to claim they aren't profitable when it actually has nothing to do with the baseball team itself.

I don't think a sell-off hurts their ability to attract candidates. On the contrary I'd like to think this rumor may have come out of the interview process. What GM would look at this roster and system and promise that he can win a World Series any time soon? The first thing Bloom did when he got hired in Boston was trade Betts and Price, and while those were very different contracts/timelines, the new GM's biggest task may well be trading Harper, whether he actively wants out or the team simply recognizes his prime will be over before this roster regenerates. If they're treating 2021 as a throwaway year they aren't the only ones, but that won't actually get the franchise anywhere. Not signing JT and trading Wheeler is a white flag for 2-3 years, not one.

[zambonir]

Ha-ha well he is really painting himself into a corner now. I mean, I wouldn't even trade Ronald Torreyes for Babe Ruth right now.

Phillies exec: Wouldn't trade Wheeler for Ruth

"If they offered me Babe Ruth, I wouldn't trade him," John Middleton said angrily in a phone conversation, adding Ted Williams and Mike Schmidt to Ruth's name for good measure. "I have authorized no one to have a conversation about trading him."

According to high-ranking executives from other teams, the Phillies communicated to others in the business that they are facing tough financial decisions and are open to offers for Wheeler, their second-most expensive player.

"They're lying to you," Middleton said, flatly denying that the Phillies are open to dealing Wheeler.

I think I'm going back to my theory that Rice is trying to figure out how to do his job, within the budget he's been given, and came up with one potential answer - without necessarily being the only path! - that turned into a very bad leak. There's no reason for him to even bring something to Middleton - or even MacPhail - in the preliminary stages, though given his status maybe he's not authorized to do anything at all.

But if there's an intention to actively cut payroll, any plan to do that might logically include trying to move one of the team's best-paid players. And #1 has a no-trade and #3 has limited value and #4 has both.

And even with a lame-duck President and interim GM it's a bad look for Midldeton to be hands-on with this stuff. "I wouldn't trade him." You shouldn't be making the calls to trade anybody.

[andyb]

It is like substituting Mike Trout in that statement. Kind of laughable.

I think it is possible they explored trading someone like Wheeler in a deal that they could argue helps the team by receiving something like a 4th starter and a couple of prospects. A new GM certainly should look for every way to make the team better. Of course those prospects would not be any good if the Phillies did not pick up salary or that 4th starter they received did not make at least $15 million a year.

Teams always explore trading just about everyone. I would be shocked they have not listened to what Aaron Nola would get in the trade market. They probably shy away from floating guys like Harper with a no-trade clause, but other than that, every good team should always be prepared to trade anyone in case a deal does come up that is worth taking or if circumstances change. A conversation now about Wheeler could pay dividends at the trade deadline if the Phillies are 20+ games out (looking increasingly likely if they spend no money and trade guys like Segura with lesser replacements) and it actually might make sense to deal Wheeler.

Hey, it makes sense to tender Velasquez now. He is a perfectly adequate $4 million Wheeler replacement!

[flyers19rw]

Even though it’s time for the Winter Meetings, a usual opportunity for breaking stories for the media, the Phillies need to just be quiet. No more chatter about losing money. Nothing additional about top level management searches. No discussions about player movement unless it has been consummated. Any talk about cost cutting should be couched in terms that would indicate that these people are being temporarily furloughed not terminated. The club has to work on generating a positive image.

[zambonir]

Yeah Mike Trout came to mind too. But the Phillies actually wouldn't do it, because they can't afford it (and Wheeler wouldn't begin to get it done). If and when Trout gets traded, as with Harper, it will either be a disappointing return or one where the selling team pays half their salary.

It is bolder, and probably wiser - but a lot less popular - to do a big pre-season deal that looks like a white flag if you think you aren't gonna have a shot. And with no serious ability to offer tickets for the first half of the season (both in terms of capacity and advance selling time), why wait to have your hand forced at the deadline?

Still kind of drag they didn't trade Arrieta, JT and Gregorius, not that it was an active or rewarding deadline. Remember when we thought they'd QO Didi?

[fish]

Seems more likely he and the Bucks (who are just a single ownership entity) agreed to put in that money together, which they claim they used mostly to keep people employed all season

Matt Gelb quoted a Middleton letter in June that read “ the Middleton and Buck families will invest an additional $100 million into the Phillies over the next year to “ensure the continued stability of the club.”

[zambonir]

considering three high-ranking executives on other teams confirmed to me that Olney's reporting was accurate, perhaps instead of being angry, Middleton should see those discussions as a positive thing. Because successful, pragmatic, creative front offices always listen to proposals for good players.

Five things Jeff Passan is hearing: George Springer fits, The DJ LeMahieu market...

[fish]

considering three high-ranking executives on other teams confirmed to me that Olney's reporting was accurate, perhaps instead of being angry, Middleton should see those discussions as a positive thing. Because successful, pragmatic, creative front offices always listen to proposals for good players.

What's the plan here? Let Ned Rice be the bad cop who cut's payroll before hiring the 'new' GM? I guess they could hire a new club president and still go down that path- but if you are Josh Byrnes, would you give up on the Dodgers to join these losers? If you are Michael Hill, do you join this front office only to have to experience all the worst parts of his work experience in Miami all over again?

[Philsmania]

considering three high-ranking executives on other teams confirmed to me that Olney's reporting was accurate, perhaps instead of being angry, Middleton should see those discussions as a positive thing. Because successful, pragmatic, creative front offices always listen to proposals for good players.

What's the plan here? Let Ned Rice be the bad cop who cut's payroll before hiring the 'new' GM? I guess they could hire a new club president and still go down that path- but if you are Josh Byrnes, would you give up on the Dodgers to join these losers? If you are Michael Hill, do you join this front office only to have to experience all the worst parts of his work experience in Miami all over again?

Or, this time, Hill will oversee a rebuild that isn't kneecapped when it begins to bear fruit.