Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

Lucky_Beagle 2020-12-07 21:21:43 UTC #602

The Phillies have claimed right-hander Ian Hamilton off waivers from the Mariners, per an announcement from Seattle

andyb 2020-12-07 21:54:19 UTC #603

Another hard thrower. 98 mph in 2018 but shoulder issues in 2019-20 had him down around 95 last year. Claimed once before in September.

Shoulder issues apparently from a car accident, which I suppose is better than repetitive pitching.

zambonir 2020-12-07 22:43:19 UTC #604

That's an interesting notion - weather some of the worst parts of a salary dump/rebuild before the new guy gets saddled with it. Though if you're really going to make big moves I'd rather have the new guy making them.

It's still an attractive job though. No more or less than when good people from Boston, Houston and LA took jobs in Arizona, Baltimore and SF. I'm not real thrilled with our owner but he's no better or worse than the guys in Houston or Chicago (both Chicagos).

If you are HIll and Byrnes only want the job so they can spend big and win right away, they are probably not the right people for the job anyway.

Who the heck knows what they are really doing. I do think the Wheeler thing was just due diligence though. It also wouldn't even be coming up if Segura and Cutch weren't hard to move. The local press still seems to think they intend to pursue JT and compete.

We shall see. A lot of teams are also looking at this off-season and thinking they can get 2/3 the WAR for half the price by moving different pieces around. Even the Mets, if they prefer McCann to JT (though the other theory there is it lets them sign Springer too. Which is what I would have liked the Phillies to do if you'd asked me in August).

fish 2020-12-08 00:57:01 UTC #605

Any big contracts moved this winter are going to look like a trade of Bobby Abreu for CJ Henry, it will be one ugly deal.

zambonir 2020-12-08 01:19:32 UTC #606

Bobby Abreu for who?

I don't think the Phillies will trade big names if it doesn't come with some return. Tanking in and of itself wouldn't be enough. But right now if you do any deal, the people evaluating other team's minor league systems are the same guys who have been doing it (and also evaluating the major leagues we've signed/traded for) for the past five years.

Rosenthal has a good summary of it, in which he says opposing teams have also inquired about Nola and Hoskins. He also writes about how the Reds are stuck with Votto's salary, which is one reason why Sonny Gray might be available.

fish 2020-12-09 04:44:31 UTC #607

Well, per a Stark tweet, Byrnes wised up and took himself out of the running. Way to go Phils.

zambonir 2020-12-09 05:03:54 UTC #608

You said it, huh?

I wonder if they actually even interviewed anyone else besides Byrnes and Hill - Levine clearly didn't get to that point - that wasn't leaked and didn't make it to the second round. Because if not - and the Mets are in the same boat - what would you rather do, just hire the only guy who'd take the job (or reconsider people you'd already rule out), or punt for a year?

Part of the issue is clearly there are more GM candidates than President candidates, but you just gotta make the call. Either let someone who is ready to be GM be President of Baseball Ops with a good #2 - it's all just money and title, or get a good GM and a President who actually isn't that involved in the baseball side, while still understanding it. That's supposed to be Alderson's role if he actually does hire people eventually, it's been Kasten's role in LA, and it was Lucchino's in Boston. It should have been how things went for the Phillies but neither guy was up to it.

Austinfan 2020-12-09 05:31:28 UTC #609

I didn't want Byrnes, I think using LA as a role model just got the Phillies in trouble.

Still think as a second tier destination Phillies should emulate small market teams with big market money, i.e., don't overspend on FAs but use that money to keep your own (after 4-5 years a lot of players won't tear up their roots if the money is similar).

Fact it, most players don't see Philly as their first or second choice, so you end up in bidding wars, hiring mercenaries, while if you can develop your own players, they've played together for years and should have a sense of camaraderie (and if there's an A-hole or two, let him walk in free agency).

zambonir 2020-12-09 07:37:41 UTC #610

The problem with the Phillies isn't their role models, the problem with the Phillies is the Phillies. They didn't really try to emulate the Dodgers anyway, just happened to hire one manager from there. They did try to emulate Chicago and Houston, which didn't work. And they hired guys from Baltimore and Anaheim and even Atlanta, which also didn't work. Now we've still got a Houston guy (Bonifay), the Driveline guys and some Yankees.

Nobody disagrees with developing players and directing most of your money towards rewarding them when they reach their peak earning years. But you have to actually do it! I'm sure Klentak would have liked nothing more than to lock up Franco, Nick Williams, Pivetta and even Hoskins to remunerative long-term deals instead of paying for the likes of Cutch and Wheeler. He also would have liked to have the homegrown talent Washington and Atlanta and Houston and LA have.

Every player's first choice is the team that pays the most. Mookie Betts didn't stay in LA because the Dodgers are so much more appealing than the Phillies. Realmuto is not going to leave Philly for NY if the money isn't there. And if your own players turn into Ryan Howard, or a Cliff Lee decides he loves playing for you, you still don't really save money. Unless you lock guys up early, which is great when they are Nola, but not so much when they are Herrera (or for now, Kingery).

andyb 2020-12-09 13:18:57 UTC #611

There is no inherent problem with the Phillies as a second tier destination. The problem is a history of poor decision-makers at the top, really since Gillick. And Gillick made short term decisions to win that he knew would hurt in the long term. Since then Wade, Amaro, and Klentak have been mediocre in their own unique ways. A theme of poor talent evaluation runs through all of them.

Another issue is "keeping up" with the other clubs in their evaluation and implementation of change. Amaro resisted lots of the new evaluation metrics and that was a huge reason he was a mediocre GM (though like all of them had his good points and bad points). Klentak was bad at implementing all these new metrics. Whatever unique spin his analytics team put on things, it did not work. This incorporates stuff like the draft (soft tossing college pitchers, hit tool evaluation) to shifts (worst in the majors at saving runs) and pitching tools (change Eflin into something he is not). Klentak painted the numbers on an analytics plan but seemed to not understand or be able to execute how to make the whole thing work effectively.

Philly can be a good job. The competitive balance threshold means they can still spend to the luxury tax limit (and even above) and still make a profit when things get back to normal. Revenues are not like NY or LA, but the next tier is not an awful place to be. Of the candidates so far I would have preferred Levine. It seems some of the dysfunction in ownership is preventing the best candidates from taking the job. The only thing preventing Philly from being a good job at the moment seems to be ownership.

Austinfan 2020-12-09 14:47:48 UTC #612

I don't think ownership is a problem, a strong President would have more leeway in Philly than a franchise owned by an egomaniac billionaire (think Jerry Jones or Dan Snyder). And the Phillies are not a poor team in a 3rd tier market.

Timing is probably the bigger issue, you have to have the right people come available at the right time (often, family and other considerations determine who'll be willing to come, if your wife wants to stay on the West Coast to be near family, etc.).

fish 2020-12-09 15:14:31 UTC #613

I imagine the beat writers are working the lines hard right now to get someone who knows Byrnes to say why he removed himself as a candidate, or more specifically, what it is that Middleton and MacPhail said to him that turned him off. We all have a pretty good idea I'm sure, but it would be confirmation of what we believe Middleton is doing (or not planning to do with the team) that he won't come out and say himself.

fish 2020-12-09 17:54:31 UTC #614

"In addition to Hill, there are a number of proven executives who are free agents and would likely have interest in the Phillies' job. The list includes Brian Sabean, Ned Colletti, Dan O'Dowd, Dan Duquette and others."

Oooooh noooo. If those other four are even remotely considerations, sign Hill as soon as possible PLEASE. Two things I really like about Hill- 1) the Marlins have been a good player development organization, and 2) he communicates with people/the public in a way that doesn't make you want to scream.

zambonir 2020-12-09 20:17:35 UTC #615

Yeah the last thing I want is another MacPhail. But I also don't want them to hire the only guy who is willing to take the job.

Hill seems okay though. I would want to see him attract one of the other names we've seen thrown around as people who could be GM but not president.

I have a very low opinion of our owner but the truth is, there's only 30 teams, and probably 25 of the owners are complete pains to work for for one reason or another. Some are meddlers, some are are cheap, some are too corporate.

There may actually be some truth to the notion that people aren't looking to make big moves this year, and I don't think you can blame the Phillies if Josh Byrnes doesn't want to leave LA when he's already de facto GM, or if Thad Levine doesn't want to move his family. Some people also don't actually want the top job - if you enjoy the nuts and bolts of baseball, you're better off staying just one notch below the executive suite.

But if there is one thing that might be lacking about the Phillies, I suspect it's money, given all other indications. Theo made $10 million in Chicago. The Dodgers got Friedman from Tampa for $7 million a year in 2014, gave him a new deal in 2019, and he's probably due for another raise now. I doubt the Phillies are playing in that sandbox, or, apparently, even paying enough to convince a guy to leave a place and job he's happy with.

andyb 2020-12-09 20:50:33 UTC #616

The 4 anticipated minor league affiliates are now mostly official:

I think the number of GCL teams (1 or 2) is still up in the air a bit. The 180 (vs 150) player limit does bring in the possibility of a second team.

In semi-local news, Aberdeen will be the High A affiliate of the Orioles (instead of Frederick) and Wilmington will be the High A affiliate of the Nats (presumably both in the mid-Atlantic league). Frederick is the 6th team in the MLB draft league which now seems to feature long bus rides....

Lots of the reports today talk about a 2nd GCL team (even the Orioles who are pretty cheap usually). These have been mentioned as "transitional" so it is possible they go down to 150 active players in a year or two and 1 GCL team.

zambonir 2020-12-09 21:05:10 UTC #617

This is certainly a good summary. Gelb also reporting the Phillies had no interest in getting Iglesias from the Reds.

Reading between the lines, he suggests that Middleton still wants to win now (understandably), but also wants to cut payroll, and that no one who interviews for this job is actually going to tell him they can win now while also cutting payroll. It's easy to imagine both Byrnes and Levine bailing simply because they either want a rebuild mandate or enough $ to spend, and the Phillies aren't offering either. The only person willing to execute that strategy is MacPhail.

The minor league press release also included a quote from Minnitti, who remains Bonifay's boss (among others).

Austinfan 2020-12-09 23:15:26 UTC #618

Middleton may want to win now, but the fact that he's stated that player development is a key priority in hiring a new President/GM suggests that his head is overruling his heart. Which is a good thing.

It may be simply that Hill is the front runner due to his experience which is more about developing players with limited resources than Byrnes who had the optimal situation - for Hill this would be a great situation, for Byrnes one where he'd be under more pressure to duplicate what was done in a better situation.

andyb 2020-12-09 23:19:59 UTC #619

Not a whole lot of evidence of this. What is he supposed to say - that he does not believe in player development?

I have no idea why a so-so candidate (Byrnes) and what looks to be a good candidate (Levine) said no. Hill needs a job so he is going to listen more. There is just nothing about the process so far that lends much confidence, especially since we assume it is largely led by the same people that hired Klentak. Hopefully they have learned, but I believe exactly nothing Middleton says in the paper. I would not trade Wheeler for Babe Ruth because he has been dead for 70 years. But I sure would trade him for Mike Trout. Wheeler would trade himself for Mike Trout if he were GM.

Austinfan 2020-12-09 23:28:38 UTC #620

Levine from all reports is happy where he is, sometimes people like their jobs, and often have been promised a promotion at some point - so it takes "an offer they can't refuse" to get them to move.

It's like free agency, fans often talk as if you can just sign a free agent, as if they're not a person with their own agenda.

zambonir 2020-12-09 23:58:35 UTC #621

The Mets are having the same issue, they just have a better president and a richer owner.