Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[allentown]

Well most free agent deals this year will be 1-year deals

And we might get some real bargains, if we go 2-3 years. That's the length contract we normally look for. I'd rather a 2-3 deal to the right guy than one year, because I don't see 2021 as a felicitous year for the Phillies.

[zambonir]

I wouldn't say the bullpen was flukey. We seldom have a good bullpen. More often than not, we don't even have an average bullpen. It's not that we haven't signed/traded for veteran bullpen arms in recent years. We've spent a fair amount of $ on that. Most of the guys acquired have been bad or hurt or both. It's not like we haven't used a ton of mid-level draft picks on college pitchers we thought we could turn into decent relief pitchers. No fluke at all. All too familiar. Our management has failed to identify the right relievers to sign and our scouts/development staff have failed to develop enough internal candidates. We had a lot of injuries this year. We've had a lot of injuries most years.

Can't argue with that, but Robertson getting hurt was pretty fluky. Phelps being absolutely useless was flukey. The volume of injuries to a mostly young group of arms (Seranthony, Arano) last year was pretty fluky, even if the next group of arms (Garcia, Hammer, Ramos) also failed to develop. The up-and-down performance or injuries to guys like Morgan, Alvarez, Hunter, Nicasio, pretty much par for the course (though Alvarez's injury was also fluky and if he'd been healthy they might have won that single game they needed).

Obviously the major league pitching coaching has not been a strength, what with the five guys in five years. Also the rotation made the bullpen worse in 2019. This year, as far as that goes, it was more about the weird season.

But 2020 roster was fairly sound, and so was the fundamental strategy to dumpster-dive and try and develop a few arms and wait until the deadline. But unfortunately it wasn't a good strategy for a 60 game season.

It certainly didn't bother me that they didn't get a big free agent, which itself seems to be a crapshoot. And we'll be picking up those dice again this year.

[Austinfan]

Yeah, that's my point, don't clear the decks to go out and spend like a drunken sailor in two years for more FA "names." Just keep patching while you rebuild the farm system, yes it helps to pick top ten, but Moniak and Haseley aren't turning this organization around. Good scouts find players later in the 1st and often in the first 3 rounds, a good LA group finds players, both big bonuses but also $10K signings. Good trades (Eflin) can make a big difference, bad trades (Hamels) just prolong the agony.

Patches can keep this team competitive, but to get to the next level, you need a half dozen young players to step up, maybe not Bohm level, but better than what they've done so far.

We've gone the "name" route and it just ate up our cap room. And I think it distracted Middleton for a few years from addressing the organizational rot. You want a winner, draft well and trade well and FA is merely the icing on the cake.

The 2008 team (really 2008-2012) was built over a period of years. They were 65-97 in 2000, but had Lieberthal (28), Burrell (23), Lee (25), Rolen (25), Abreu (26), Wolf (23).
Next year add Rollins (22), Estrada (25), Duckworth (25), Padilla (23), along with Glanville (30), Mesa (35), Bottalico (31) and win 86 games.
Then added Myers (21) but slipped back to 81 wins.
Then added Polanco (27), Byrd (25), Millwood (28) and Bell (30), signed Thome (32) and back to 86 wins despite Mesa imploding.
2004, Utley and Madson join the show, but the pitching can't keep up with the lineup.

Point is they rebuilt from 2000 to 2004, but a better GM might have been the difference.
Byrd was traded for zilch in May 2005
Polanco was traded for zilch in the summer of 2005.
Abreu was traded for zilch in the summer of 2006.
Wolf was allowed to walk after 2006
They trade Thome to make room for Howard, get Rowand and Gonzalez, then package Gonzalez and Floyd for Garcia after the 2006 season.

They got lucky when Ruiz came out of nowhere at age 28, smart picking up Victorino (rule 5) and Werth (street),

But it makes you wonder how good they could have been from 2007-2012 if they had been more patient with their players, had they at least landed a few good pitchers the deals might have made sense, but they dumped a lot of talent for nothing - and smarter moves meant they wouldn't have had to strip the farm system for a five year run.

[zambonir]

But it makes you wonder how good they could have been from 2007-2012 if they had been more patient with their players, had they at least landed a few good pitchers the deals might have made sense, but they dumped a lot of talent for nothing - and smarter moves meant they wouldn't have had to strip the farm system for a five year run.

I think they were good enough from 2007 to 2012! Nor did they really strip the farm system per se. Most of those moves were to put the team over the top, or upgrade at the deadline, for elite players. I don't think your scenario produces Brad Lidge, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt. Sure, it would have been nice if they hadn't traded for Pence (and if they hadn't given away Lee). And it did eventually produce Happ and Carrasco. But they can't all time out just right. They also gave up their share of picks, but no team yet has invented a way to consistently contend without some fallow periods. Better to be the team that can spend through those than not.

The underachievement of the previous era was intertwined with the Schilling and Rolen trades, neither of which were especially good either. Abreu was a salary dump (they even had to keep Lidle) and Polanco was part of the David Bell nonsense. 2000-2004 was also not a rebuilt - they fired Francona in 2000 and were gearing up to win, which they actually did better than Klentak's teams - 86, 80, 86 and 86 wins. Never quote good enough, still got Bowa and Wade fired, but would have made the playoffs a few times now. And then they had the fire sale to start a rebuild and had to pull it back because the 2006 team wound up playing well, which is how we got Moyer.

[Squire]

Today is Rule 5 Draft Protection Deadline Day. The following prospects are eligible for selection if not protected

RHP Francisco Morales
OF Simon Muzziotti
LHP Damon Jones
SS Nick Maton
LHP Zach Warren'
LHP Kyle Dohy
OF Jhailyn Ortiz
LHP David Parkinson
1B Darick Hall
OF Austin Listi
RHP Kevin Gowdy

[andyb]

My guesses were Morales, Muzziotti, Jones, Maton, and Dohy (who is also left-handed BTW). Dohy seems to have a bit higher ceiling and better stuff than Warren.

Edit - adding Matt Winkelman's preview:

Phillies Rule 5 Protection Thoughts

[andyb]

I find it a little amazing that we are only at 31 spots on the roster even after we have added a few players who would have been the easy protection decisions already (Moniak, Marchan, Brogdon). And we have 2-4 players of the current 31 that we can probably easily get rid of later in the winter if choose to sign multiple free agents (Velasquez and Heath are non-tender candidates, a couple of others like Quezada and Garlick and Irvin can be DFA'd pretty easily with a strong chance of keeping them).

This goes to the notion that the back end of our 40 last season was just full of mediocre, replaceable players (not counting Grullon who would be nice to have back if JT goes).

This seems like a year where we definitely will be drafting a player or two also. I wonder if there will be more raw talents out there than usual as second tier prospects were denied that extra year of experience (like Ortiz for us). Probably worth taking a couple shots on toolsy players this year even if they eventually get returned.

[bkeich]

I find it a little amazing that we are only at 31 spots on the roster even after we have added a few players who would have been the easy protection decisions already (Moniak, Marchan, Brogdon)

Keep in mind also though we really are not at 31 (i.e. 9 open positions for protection) because the Major League team is BADLY lacking in players. We do not have anyone to fill the 3 most important defensive positions (C, CF, SS) unless you are actually excited by seeing Haseley and Knapp as starters. We have a 1B who might be a complete bust (after a great start). We have almost no bullpen to speak of. We need at least 1 starting pitcher, if not 2.

Honestly, although it doesnt seem like it, we probably are closer to having a roster position crunch than having spare slots to protect marginal prospects. As AndyB points out later in this post there are still some easy drops, but frankly we need a ton of players at the ML level just to be competitive, at the moment the Phils probably have one of the worst position player lists in the majors, 3 solid starting pitchers and 1 reliever. That is way, way short of having a team.

[zambonir]

Yeah the gap from 31 to 37 is due to a lot of major league free agents (Didi, JT, Jake, Alvarez, Phelps, Robertson), whether they have to be replaced or not. But you worry about that latter.

How poorly the Phillies seemed to manage the 40 last season is separate issue. They also botched managing the 28 at the end when they didn't want to put JT and a few other guys on it right away.

[bigegypt0417]

Phillies hire 33-year-old pitching coach who has chemistry with Girardi

[flyers19rw]

The Phillies add another individual with Yankee ties. They’re starting to look like NYY South. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the replacements for MacPhail and Klentak had ties to the Yankees either.

[LoneStarPhan]

Looking at history, being like the Yankees over the long term is not a bad thing.

[andyb]

Falter gets added also along with the five predicted.

[julio]

From Twitter:

The Phillies have selected the contracts of LHP Kyle Dohy, LHP Bailey Falter, LHP Damon Jones, INF Nick Maton, RHP Francisco Morales and OF Simón Muzziotti, protecting them from the Rule 5 draft.

With these additions, the Phillies’ 40-man roster currently stands at 37 players.

— Meghan Montemurro ( @M_Montemurro ) November 20, 2020

[zambonir]

The guy you'd want from the Yankees is Naehring but he's happy where he is. No interest in Hendry who is just Gillick/MacPhail 2.0, someone who's merely been a senior advisor type for more than a decade, and whose last success was the same Cubs team MacPhail ran.

I think this hire is more about the Driveline/Vandy ties (remember Harper clamoring for Vandy's current coach?), the connection to Girardi (forged in a total of 9 innings?) is a bonus. It's just funny that they wouldnt have been able to hire him last year, because he would have seemed too similar to Young. Obviously he has more of a track record (and the extra year with the Reds obviously didn't hurt either).

[Lucky_Beagle]

With the roster now containing 37 players and knowing a number of slots will be needed to fill out the regular season roster will the Phillies be able to make a selection in the Rule 5 draft? Does this increase the odds a player or two are non-tendered or released to open up slots?

[andyb]

I think they fully intend to non-tender or DFA 3 or 4 people. Non-tender candidates are Velasquez, Hale, and potentially Dominguez. That decision needs by December 2nd which is before the rule 5 draft.

Then there are DFA candidates. Irvin, Llovera, Quezada, Garlick. Not all these players will be removed from the roster. DFA candidates stay until we sign or claim enough to fill up the 40. Lots of signees will also sign minor league deals this offseason. So we could sign a reliever on a minor league deal who might then take Seranthony's spot at the end of Spring Training when he can be put on the 60-day DL without losing his rights.

I think there is a strong chance the team drafts someone in the rule 5 draft this season. We have 3 open spots and then can easily open another 4 or 5 spots from the non-tender and DFA lists. Any trades we make also might be roster neutral.

[zambonir]

We're also still gonna have sign as many as six free agents (catcher, middle IF, OF, two-three pitchers), even if some could be on minor league deals. But if they like someone in the Rule 5 they will certainly manage to find a space. You'd think a reliever.

I hope they keep Seranthony. His award won't be that high. Yeah, he can't pitch for a season-plus, but we shouldn't risk letting the post-TJ phase of his career be for someone else just to save $600,000 or $1 million.

[andyb]

I would not be surprised if there are a greater than usual number of young players that make the final 26-man roster. Nick Maton, for instance. If they consider him to be a better defensive shortstop than other options like Segura, he could make the roster as the extra middle infielder and actually get half the starts at SS. Now the Phillies situation is a bit unique in that they lack a clear starter at SS, but in a normal world Maton would have just spent the last year at AAA, probably putting up a 750 OPS with decent defense.

Some of the younger pitchers might have easier paths to the bullpen than usual.

We clearly need to fill out the rotation and get another catcher, but there is a path to doing this that should not tax the 40-man roster too much.

[andyb]

Knowing all the personnel we seem to be adding from the Yankees organization, their list of rule 5 eligible pitchers might be interesting:
https://twitter.com/mattkardos/status/1329936024336785409

Addison Russ is available but it is the other two guys (Trevor Stephan and Garrett Whitlock) that might be more interesting. Whitlock in particular was a 4-pitch starter who was an overslot college pick because he lost much of his junior year to food poisoning. Then he blew through the system to AA in a little over a year before he had TJ surgery. He probably needs a year in the minors, but he is the polished type that might not. And as a rule 5 draftee you could always return him after Spring Training if the stuff is not back yet. Stephan got to AA pretty quickly before hitting a roadblock in 2019 but has a mid 90s fastball that touches 97.