Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[zambonir]

I would not be surprised if there are a greater than usual number of young players that make the final 26-man roster. Nick Maton, for instance. If they consider him to be a better defensive shortstop than other options like Segura, he could make the roster as the extra middle infielder and actually get half the starts at SS. Now the Phillies situation is a bit unique in that they lack a clear starter at SS, but in a normal world Maton would have just spent the last year at AAA, probably putting up a 750 OPS with decent defense.

Some of the younger pitchers might have easier paths to the bullpen than usual.

We clearly need to fill out the rotation and get another catcher, but there is a path to doing this that should not tax the 40-man roster too much.

If they're really going to tread water this season that works. Though I think the rotation is the least likely hole to fill on a major league contract (but if so that will just be VV's spot on the 40 anyway). But Alvarez would take a spot if he comes back, and surely they are going to sign one other more experienced reliever to a major league deal.

And a catcher of course.

But if they really want to try and make the playoffs this season, they also have to add two position players: some patchwork of guys who can play either 2B, CF or LF/DH. Just running it back with Kingery 2B Segura SS Haseley/Quinn CF, plus a bench bat and a utility guy, probably doesn't cut it, whether the latter is a Maton or a Gosselin or a defense-first vet.

[bkeich]

So, I always have a different way of looking at the roster than I ever see setup anywhere. I dont look at it as a 40 man roster but as a 14 man taxi squad (26 on active roster).

So here is what you have currently not counting the major league players:

Pitchers
Cleavinger
Dohy
Falter
Jones
Llovera
Medina
Morales
Quezada
Rosso
Sanchez

Position Players
Marchan
Maton
Garlick
Moniak
Muzzioti

So at the moment, at least one of these guys has to either make the major league team or be put through waivers. Unless I am mistaken, none of these players are really ready for the majors (some reliever maybe?). I didnt include Dominguez, but obviously he either needs to hold one of the 14 spots until the start of the season (and he can be put on the 60 day DL) or he needs to be sent through waivers and hope that no one tries to grab him.

Are any of these pitchers ready to make the ML team? Do you risk putting a guy like Moniak, Garlick or Maton on the ML roster? The 2nd question I hope is a no, I would want better players than these guys on the bench, but who knows..

We seem to have too many pitchers on this list, so I think at least 1-2 probably makes the ML roster. Hard to imagine any of them are really ready for that.

This list assumed a HORRIFIC bullpen consisting of:
Neris
Arano
Bogdon
Hale
Irvin
Romero
Velasquez
(feel free to swap Romero or Irvin for someone on the Minor league list)

That bullpen might be the worst in the majors. It has to be improved somehow, it is just a pipe dream that those guys would manage to excel, there is really only 2 guys on the list that are likely to be average or better (Neris, above average, Arano, probably average). The rest are probably batting practice pitchers at this point.

So, we have all the pitchers we can probably stand on the 40 man right now assuming we still add another starter to Nola, Wheeler, Eflin and Howard. So the other spots need to go to position players just to field a team.

We must have a starting catcher, a shortstop (or Segura/Kingery is your double play combo again, possible, but not good) and an OF (hopefully a starting CF, but maybe just a backup and let Quinn and Haseley continue to struggle).

So we have 3 spots, a starting pitcher and a catcher are a must. OF fills the last spot probably, and then you have to start waiving players until Dominguez can either be put on the DL or try to sneak him through waivers. Guys like Garlick, etc. can always be dumped, but they are filling a need at the moment, we would need to replace Garlick with someone who could be a utility player in waiting, etc.

I think when you look at this list you realize that we have some young, not ready for the majors, players that are going to be lost unless we hold them on the ML roster. We have at least 1-2 too many players protected at the moment, obviously if we add a Rule V player that adds to the list.

[andyb]

I think CF is not a priority. It is the one position on the field where we have options and minor league depth. Haseley and Quinn now. Moniak and Muzziotti in the upper minors. We will get some production out of that combination. Maybe not quite league average, but at least there should be adequate defense and through platooning the offense would not be horrible.

One does not need a star everywhere. Sometimes you accept lower production when the cost (major league minimum or not much more) is right. If anything in the OF we want a left-handed offensive bat that could platoon with McCutchen or push him largely to DH. If we accept less offense in CF, let's get it elsewhere, especially if the DH can keep an extra bat in the lineup.

We are likely to non-tender both Hale and Velasquez (though either could always be back on a lower salary or minor league deal). That is 5 spots. Garlick is very replaceable. Irvin, Llovera, and Quezada are not that valuable quantities so cutting them (and having a good chance of keeping them) is an option. I'd probably add Arano to the list if his stuff is as bad as he showed in LHV last year. I know they think he'll get it back eventually, but remember he wasn't good enough to crack the worst bullpen in the last 50 years last season.

That is plenty of spots to draft 1 rule 5 player and sign 5 free agents to major league deals.

[zambonir]

I don't think CF is a priority if we sign a SS with a little pop, and a Bruce-type bat for DH/LF. Then Kingery will continue to be a super-utility guy, CF included, while both Quinn and Haseley can play some LF (and of course we'll still have another bench bat).

But if they don't sign a SS, then making sure the extra piece has the ability to play CF is not the worst idea.

Moniak should not be playing for this team before September unless he's on fire or the team has traded Cutch at the deadline. But I wouldn't build the team around either of those eventualities - if they intend to try and win, that is.

Anyway, I'm not saying all these guys have to be stars but there's still a continuum from star to decent platoon/bench players to minor league invite/washed-up vet/AAAA guy. Granted, a lot more of the middle group will probably be in the latter group this year. Including guys like Howie Kendrick and Jay Bruce, and myriad glove-first middle IFs.

I agree that space is not really an issue. And if we trade for a starting pitcher or even a position player, it could also easily be a situation where we're moving 2 guys off our 40 for 1.

[LoneStarPhan]

The Braves are stepping out in front in signing two potential starting pitchers. Of course, both could turn out to be injury wrecks, but they might give Atlanta some strong starts. The Braves are definitely the team to catch.

[EDmuch]

The Phillies are simply a joke at this point. I have no idea why they think any credible candidate would be interested in the jobs they are offering regardless of salary,

Morton at @15 million for one year was a no brainer.

[zambonir]

There are a lot of opportunities that are going to be out there, on the trade market too. Question is will the Phillies take advantage? I don't think the lack of a permanent GM is the big problem, if Rice and MacPhail are tasked with trying to build a contending team this year, they are perfectly capable of doing it, if not with distinction. The apparent unwillingness to spend $, along with the lack of trade assets to go after guys like Snell, Sonny Gray or even Correa, is the bigger problem. And if they aren't willing to spend, they aren't trying to win, and thus it is less urgent to have a new President.

I'm not sure they are in the market for a $15 million #3 pitcher no matter what though. Only if they don't get JT.

[flyers19rw]

Morton at @15 million for one year was a no brainer.

I wouldn't be too fast to say that. Morton started nine games this last season and only made it through thirty-eight innings. That isn't even five innings per start. His WHIP jumped from 1.084 in '19 to 1.395 in '20. At age thirty-seven, he's starting to show some indication that he's on the downside of his career. I wouldn't be too interested in a pitcher with those factors for $15M even if its only on a one year deal.

[zambonir]

And only 0.2 WAR, worse than Arrieta (0.8) and even VV (0.3). And of course that's The Tampa Way, the short outings. Still, it's true that both Houston and Tampa were happy to part with him even as he excelled for them. It would be extremely Phillies to get him at the wrong time for the wrong price, as they also would have with Happ (who they preferred to Morton at the time).

[andyb]

Morton had another 20 IP that had a 2.70 ERA against pretty good competition in the postseason. He was also on a team that consciously limited his innings and those of every pitcher (like Snell also). So I would not take the innings per start too seriously though obviously any pitcher with limited innings might have stats that are aided by that. 1.15 WHIP in the postseason was decent also.

There is definitely some slippage, though that might also be slippage from a $25 million pitcher to a $15 million one. I would still bet on him being better than Smyly.

It does beg the question with the Phillies though. I am not sure we have anyone from AAA that I would want to go into the season as anything more than the 7th or 8th starter. We now have 4 of our first 6 outlined in Nola, Wheeler, Eflin, and Howard. We probably need one more $10-$15 million starter and one $3-$5 million 6th starter/swingman (could still be Velasquez but I would want to go into the year with VV in the 6th starter/long relief role at best).

[David_Criss]

I don't think we should count on Howard being a force in the rotation. He definitely needs at least 1/2 a year in AAA imo and I am done with VV in the rotation. Put him in and leave him in the pen or move on. Nola, Wheeler, Efflin is not a bad 1-2-3. But, sadly, I don't see anyone on the 40-man who could or should fill no. 4 or 5 if the Phillies want to compete.

[flyers19rw]

So I would not take the innings per start too seriously though obviously any pitcher with limited innings might have stats that are aided by that. 1.15 WHIP in the postseason was decent also.

The issue with guys like Morton is now is the IP per start. He's at the point where he might be able to make it through the batting order a second time; most likely not. Starters that are going to tax the BP are a huge issue. He's been fortunate that the teams for which he has pitched recently have had good BPs and can absorb the four or five innings that follow one of his short starts. The Phillies can't do that and I would presume that most team are in the same position. If Morton is a better buy than Smyly, Kranitz is going to have his work cut out for him in '21.

[allentown]

I don't think we should count on Howard being a force in the rotation. He definitely needs at least 1/2 a year in AAA imo and I am done with VV in the rotation.

With Howard's on-going shoulder injury, I don't want to waste his arm in the minor leagues. If he needs to rest, then he should be rested; if he is able to pitch, then he should pitch in Philly.

[andyb]

It isn't really "guys like Morton" though. It is all pitchers (or all but about 5 of them). The 3rd time through the order is worse than in the past, likely because the strikeout has become so prominent in the game, causing pitcher to throw more pitches.

I think the 2 times through the order, 4 or 5 inning starter going 150 innings is the future. What that is worth paying for is an open question. For the Phillies, we could easily go with such a strategy too (note the young pitching coach and Driveline K-oriented thought processes). Nola was pretty good the 3rd time through the order in very limited appearances last year but is historically a bit worse. Wheeler has never been that good the 3rd time through the order.

What is the best strategy? 5 guys who throw 180+ innings? Or 5 that throw 150 and 5 relievers that throw 100? Baseball is moving towards the latter. And frankly if the could get Velasquez for $3 million after his non-tender to be one of those 100-inning relievers then it might be worth it.

[andyb]

On the Phillies middle infield options, I always thought it came down to 4: Gregorius, Simmons, Semien, and this guy:

Ha-Seong Kim To Be Posted On November 25

Counting on Segura and Kingery is probably not a good idea. Ideally we can get someone on a 2-year deal as a bridge to Stott or Luis Garcia. The reviews of Kim's defense are all over the place with some thinking he can be an average SS and some more like Segura (above average at 2B, below at SS). I am not sure which of the 4 I prefer. I suppose Didi for continuity and intangibles but wonder if his price is the highest of the 4.

[fish]

With Howard's on-going shoulder injury, I don't want to waste his arm in the minor leagues. If he needs to rest, then he should be rested; if he is able to pitch, then he should pitch in Philly.

I agree allentown. The stuff Howard showed this year wasn't the same as his stuff the year prior. If his stuff is back to normal, the results should be much better. He had a shoulder issue the year prior and was able to get past it, I'm sure it's a different animal to try to do when you're under the stress of a big-league audition. Maybe it's just like Hamels early in his career and he needs to learn how to take care of it and when to be cautious to keep it under control.

[flyers19rw]

What is the best strategy? 5 guys who throw 180+ innings? Or 5 that throw 150 and 5 relievers that throw 100? Baseball is moving towards the latter. And frankly if the could get Velasquez for $3 million after his non-tender to be one of those 100-inning relievers then it might be worth it.

Herein is the problem. Its been tough enough to find five starters that can make a quality start. To attempt to find five relievers who can come in behind them and eat up the rest of the innings in almost impossible. The Phillies couldn't find one reliable RP. By the end of the '20 season, they weren't alone. Many clubs had seen their BPs decimated. They were fortunate that the season was as short as it was.
Maybe what needs to happen is that it will be an accepted fact that SPs are going to have a rough sixth inning or so. Managers and PCs need to adjust their game plans and training to get the SPs to the point of being able to make a quality start. Rolling out three, four or more RPs a night just isn't sustainable. They wear down and eventually become just as hittable as the pitchers that they are replacing.
Then there is the issue with ruining BP arms. There are only so many pitches in an arm. Even if they are just warmed up and not used in a game, the toll has been taken.

[andyb]

The premise of a "quality start" is part of the problem because the definition of that is 6 innings or more. The 150 inning pitcher usually goes 4 or 5 innings. And the reason bullpens are decimated is that they are trained to throw 1 inning and throw 98 mph. I am suggesting training them to throw 2-3 innings. That is different. The 100-inning reliever should not appear in more than 50 games. So that is twice a week on average. 2 days of rest minimum after each 2-inning appearance.

Girardi has a reputation of managing a bullpen to maximize 162 games. That fell apart last year because technically, everybody sucked. Relievers that appear in 70 or 80 games with lots of back to backs are in more of an injury risk situation than my 2 innings twice a week philosophy. This is the future that Tampa and LA are ushering in. A big question is whether the Phillies can innovate in that future.

[Austinfan]

Maybe the trick is to find SPs with good but not great velocity (i.e. average 92-93 not 95) with four pitches they can command. Since these guys don't throw as hard, and can mix up their pitch selection 2nd and 3rd times through the lineup, they have a better shot at pitching deeper into games. When you're talking #3-#5 in a rotation, quality starts are a key - give me 6 to 7 IP a start and give up 2-4 earned runs a start and I've got a 180- 200 IP starter with a 4.50 ERA, which is a solid starter in today's game.

When Nola's curve and change are working, he can go 7 solid innings throwing 92-93, t95 when needed.
Command is the key, that is what Arrieta lost and why even with his velo back last year he was mediocre.
The overemphasis on the high two seamer has created a market flaw in the valuation of guys who are more traditional pitchers.

[California_Dreamin]

Boy, I must have really lost track of the rule changes! When did baseball establish the rule that it was illegal, under penalty of jail time, for the Phillies to have a lefty in their rotation? I sure missed that rule change. I was always under the impression that it kind of, sure was advantageous to have at least one lefty in the rotation.

Historically, the best Phillie eras were highlighted by not one but often two lefties in the rotation...Short and Bennett, Carlton and Underwood, then Lerch, Mulholland and Jackson, and then a combination of Hamels, Moyer, Happ and Lee. Perhaps I am wrong but it sure seems to make sense to me that having at least one lefty in the rotation sure would seem to at least occasionally neutralize some of these strong lefty hitters that frequent the NL East.

As someone who was once the President of the Middleton for King of the World Phan Club, I admit to a large degree of disappointment at what seems to be transpiring in PhillieLand. For someone who supposedly has a $100 dollar bill in every cigar he sells he sure seems to be re-birthing the Ghosts of Bill Giles past right now. And I can't recall since the turn of the century when Phillie phandom seemed less hopeful about the future of the team.

If those cigars were mine I would do to Theo what he did to Curt Schilling back in the early 2000's. I would have Thanksgiving dinner with him and promise him complete control and a 1-2% stake in the club. That is a tall order but this is precisely what I believe is necessary to revive the spirits of a completely dispirited phan base right now.

Do I believe it will happen? Not a chance. The Phils will hire another baseball bureaucrat with mediocre baseball skills and continue to do whatever baseball deems as honorable and non controversial to the baseball kingdom. They seem almost unable or unwilling to do anything else.