Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[zambonir]

The plot thickens!

[bigegypt0417]

It sounds like maybe for the mets job...who knows.

Sounds like he may sit out this season.

[zambonir]

Who knows, that's what Morey said too. It certainly buys the Phillies some cover if they don't make a big move but I still think it would be really bad for the franchise to spin its wheels. Plus, what if they don't get him?

I wonder if Gillick would have to literally offer his ownership share or if the two primary partners would willingly carve out another tiny slice. The suggestion in the Athletic story that he might be more interested in joining or forming a new ownership group a la Jeter does make more sense. There are some teams that might become available, plus the expansion eventually.

[bigegypt0417]

I can't imagine that the Cubs would have just let him go if there was a chance he would just go to another team...right?

I'm just guessing they would have made it harder on him.

[zambonir]

Nah, I think it's pretty amicable. The transition was already long in the works and this means they don't have to pay him this year (perhaps there's a buyout, even).

Really he is doing this for the good of the Cubs, and for Hoyer, his long-time righthand man. This lets him hit the ground running. Supposedly their whole roster is available under the right circumstances. And had he stayed (i.e. gotten an extension) Hoyer probably leaves.

[EDmuch]

I just find it astonishing that Middleton and crew seem to be willing to just throw away 2021 and further aggravate the fan base.

[Austinfan]

Let's not jump to conclusions, the flip side is they're not rushing into a bad hire, as per their usual MO.

[bigegypt0417]

I think the phillies want theo epstein and will try to coax him in to coming on this year...it may be a tough sell but i think it will be something they push for.

[andyb]

Let's not jump to conclusions, the flip side is they're not rushing into a bad hire, as per their usual MO.

When have they rushed a hire? Seems to me they have been generally pretty slow because all their processes have so many layers. Even when we don't know much about the process (like with McPhail), it is typically a long period that takes longer than it does for most teams.

Let's not reflexively condemn or praise them for waiting. Of course if they tread water this offseason and don't really nod in an intelligent direction of trying to compete or partially rebuild, then is when we should potentially condemn them for lost opportunity. Not hiring a President and a GM for an entire year would be a very questionable strategy if that is what they eventually do.

[zambonir]

Theo gives them cover, but I think he's still a pipe dream. I'm not sure I even believe they would do what it takes to get him (the $10 million salary, the ownership stake).

You also have to wonder if Middleton would buy into his plan - or any good candidate's plan. Seems to me the only options are A) spend even more money B) try to get lucky for two seasons, which hasn't worked yet or C) creep into a full rebuild. A new President would want A) or C), even if C means no JT and possibly trading Nola before his deal is up (if not this season).

[Austinfan]

If I'm Middleton, I want the full rebuild with a competent President who can actually run one successfully.
You have enough pieces to be competitive in 2-3 years if done right, and a WS contender within 5, but if you continue to muddle through, the playoffs may be a pipe dream for a long time.

[zambonir]

If you're Austinfan, you want that. And you're certainly not the only one. But if you're Middleton, you just hired Joe Girardi, signed Bryce Harper and Zach Wheeler, and still desperately want to keep J.T. Realmuto. He sees some of the issues within the organization, but I'm not sure he's close to doing what would really have to be done to rebuild - losing the games that get you Top 5 picks, trading Nola and Hoskins and possibly even Harper (if he agrees or wants out).

And what does "competitive" in 2-3 years" actually mean? They are competitive now. The problem is they need to spend money both to paper over holes and buy prospects. If he's not willing to spend, neither will happen.

Middleton just doesn't seem to think ahead. He pushed for the the team to sign A.J. Burnett in 2014 but it wasn't until a year later, when Sandberg quit and Monty got cancer, that he realized things had to change. He decided the only thing wrong with this team previously was the manager; another year passes and he finally bails on the GM and starts second-guessing the roster. All while keeping MacPhail in charge of both the present, and in charge of hiring his own replacement. Now I suspect we'll have to sit through another mediocre season before the "R" word is actually said out loud.

[andyb]

This version of the team needs at least another year to succeed. Think of it this way, if we could have built an average bullpen we would have made the playoffs likely by several games and are not having this conversation. The team's inability to solve that problem (and the bad decisions like the Boston trade) might be fixable with better management.

We actually do not have that many assets beyond Nola that would get a lot in trade. And the way to alienate Bryce is to trade Nola (he'll understand losing a bidding war on JT to the Mets as long as we spend some of that money on replacements).

This whole thing does not work if young players like Kingery and Bohm and some pitchers like Howard do not get dramatically better. Our problem is lack of homegrown inexpensive stars either through bad drafting or ill advised trades. If the young players do not step up then maybe we should rebuild in a year or two. Just not now.

[Austinfan]

You don't have to tear it all down to rebuild.

1) no long-term deals to players 30 or older, stick to 1 year deals, 2 years at most. Look for bargains.
2) move out or allow to leave over 30 starters such as Cutch, Segura, Didi, JT. One or two is fine, not half your lineup
3) trade with an eye to the future, not short-term fixes. Always get a prospect thrown into a deal even if it costs you money

You can both focus on adding young assets and patch the lineup/pitching staff with short-term patches.
A good talent evaluator can find "diamonds in the rough" when he has a $200M budget.
And he'll bring in better scouts, revamp the LA operation, and build on the improvements in player development.

To me, $25M a year on scouts, coaches, better facilities, better nutrition for minor league players, more intensive LA scouting and networking would pay off far better than a deal like Arrieta, which I panned at the time b/c his velo had been declining. Phillies should have the goal of being the best organization in baseball - do that, and in a few years you'll have the best team.

I'd much rather spend payroll on locking up top young players early, get a discount and build a solid core than chasing big name free agents on the downside of their careers. But to make this strategy work, you have to find and develop top young players.

[zambonir]

Well yeah that's what is actually going to happen. They have two years to get free of the Cutch, Herrera and Segura money while waiting to see what Bohm, Howard, Kingery and Haseley actually are. But it's not enough to make a run over the next two years, and the system isn't likely to produce much in the next two years.

It's true that last year's team wasn't bad, and the bullpen both years was fluky as much as anything (even if we also suspect that a better front office or pitching coach can get better results). But last year's team still had JT, Didi and even a decent amount of WAR from Arrieta. That all needs to be replaced, and Cutch and Segura might get worse (plus Hoskins will be coming back from the same surgery that hindered Didi in 2019).

The Phillies did all the other stuff already. They did set the goal of becoming the best organization. They just failed at it.

[bigegypt0417]

You don't have to tear it all down to rebuild.

1) no long-term deals to players 30 or older, stick to 1 year deals, 2 years at most. Look for bargains.
2) move out or allow to leave over 30 starters such as Cutch, Segura, Didi, JT. One or two is fine, not half your lineup
3) trade with an eye to the future, not short-term fixes. Always get a prospect thrown into a deal even if it costs you money

You can both focus on adding young assets and patch the lineup/pitching staff with short-term patches.
A good talent evaluator can find "diamonds in the rough" when he has a $200M budget.
And he'll bring in better scouts, revamp the LA operation, and build on the improvements in player development.

Your guide to a 80 win team.

[Austinfan]

And what alternative strategy is going to get them over 80 wins?

Resign JT and you basically can't afford anything else other than bargain bin FAs, 5th starter, bullpen, bench depth, SS (no, Segura lacks the range to be even average as SS, maybe Kingery, but would you want to pitch behind Bohm - Kingery - Segura with Cutch in LF?).

They had the right idea, just hired the wrong people.
Don't change the approach, change the people.

[bigegypt0417]

And what alternative strategy is going to get them over 80 wins?

Resign JT and you basically can't afford anything else other than bargain bin FAs, 5th starter, bullpen, bench depth, SS (no, Segura lacks the range to be even average as SS, maybe Kingery, but would you want to pitch behind Bohm - Kingery - Segura with Cutch in LF?).

They had the right idea, just hired the wrong people.
Don't change the approach, change the people.

Your blueprint is the same one you have followed for year...build an 80 win team and hope you get lucky...it's the same model you've been trying to sell this whole time.

Be a top 5 market team and manage like the A's...who have won ZERO.

[andyb]

Well most free agent deals this year will be 1-year deals. Teams are short of cash and not making huge commitments. Some players think they'll do better waiting a year (even Trevor Bauer). We will actually be able to add significant talent this offseason by spending a modest amount of money. Not because it is the only strategy, but because it is the strategy most teams will be forced to use during this unique offseason.

Trades are more difficult. That is the area we really need to be smarter in. Klentak actually did better in free agency than in trades or drafting FWIW.

[allentown]

I wouldn't say the bullpen was flukey. We seldom have a good bullpen. More often than not, we don't even have an average bullpen. It's not that we haven't signed/traded for veteran bullpen arms in recent years. We've spent a fair amount of $ on that. Most of the guys acquired have been bad or hurt or both. It's not like we haven't used a ton of mid-level draft picks on college pitchers we thought we could turn into decent relief pitchers. No fluke at all. All too familiar. Our management has failed to identify the right relievers to sign and our scouts/development staff have failed to develop enough internal candidates. We had a lot of injuries this year. We've had a lot of injuries most years. Despite espousing a grow-your-own philosophy on pitching, that's not where our #1 draft picks have gone in equal number to position players and not where our big international $ have gone. There have been exceptions in allocation and we did very well spending a first-round pick on Nola. Abel was a good pick -- as a H.S. pitcher there is a big injury risk between signing and majors, but unlike position player picks like LGJ, Randolph, at least the elite talent level is present.,

AF -- almost every one of the older players you want gone is headed to the exits. Didi won't be back. Cutch and Segura won't be extended. In all likelihood, J.T. won't be back. You say one or two of these guys is fine, but not 4. Likely the number we will have from this group will be zero. Arrietta will also be gone. Herrera will be gone. We are going to need replacement FAs. There certainly aren't credible internal replacements for all these guys and with them gone, our payroll will be quite small. Also, not a lot of internal guys who are going to need to be re-signed for big $. Money isn't the issue. Talent is. We don't have enough. We have a bottom 5 in baseball farm.