Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[zambonir]

If he really had authority he might have asked for a few relievers. And to QO Didi.

Managers are managers, and modern baseball calls for more division of labor, not less. He's certainly someone you'd want in the room for interviews and someone who should have a good relationship with the front office, but beyond that, he'd have to leave the dugout.

50-50 he even stays with the franchise through 2023, for myriad reasons (he keeps losing, the new front office wants their own guy, or he isn't interested in an extension with a rebuilding team).

[Dirk41]

The Rays declined the Angels request to interview Neander, which would lead you to believe they did the same to the Phillies. It's gotta be Theo next year with ownership stake in the team.

[flyers19rw]

I may be wrong but I think that if the position offered is a promotion over the one that they currently have, the candidate can’t be blocked from interviewing/taking that position.

[zambonir]

Yeah the Angels were hiring for a GM, Phillies would have to be offering Neander president (Rays president is Matthew Silverman). This is why Thad Levine would also be available. But with any of these guys, if they like their current gigs, it would have to be about $$$ (that's why it's guys who work for teams like Tampa, Minnesota, Cleveland. I've seen it suggested Milwaukee's current GM, who was hired two months before Klentak, is also an option).

While we're dreaming of Theo let's not underestimate how easy it could still be to be disappointed by some random assistant GM (though maybe not for president) or MacPhail-like baseball lifer.

Supposedly the Mets were sniffing around Rays advisor Bobby Heck, who also has Houston pedigree. They're interested in just about anyone we'd be interested in really (and if they also wanted to wait for Theo, not hard to guess which he'd prefer).

[David_Criss]

https://twitter.com/Braves/status/1328402215048974336

Holy Cow. Thought this was a depressed market. Drew Smyly gets 11 million?????

[zambonir]

The one-year deal is what still makes it a depressed market, given how good a season he just had.

Between that and the Robbie Ray contract (given that Ray did not have a good season) the Phillies probably want to hold onto Vinnie.

Meanwhile

Michael Hill, the former #Marlins president of baseball operations, is among the candidates the #Phillies will interview for president of baseball ops, sources say.

As I reported over the weekend, the Phillies expect to begin interviews later this week. https://t.co/Vfqgwc31Ol

— Jayson Stark ( @jaysonst ) November 16, 2020

[andyb]

Not sure we can characterize 26 innings as a good season. Clearly the elevated K rate (and likely associated Driveline-type stats) is driving this to some degree.

With Vinnie I might explore a different deal other than arbitration to see if he'd accept a smaller guarantee with some very reachable incentives. The reality is we are going to want 7 or 8 starter options or potentially build a bullpen of multi-inning relievers. Vinnie could very well be that type of guy who could go 2 innings every 3 or 4 days and get you 80-100 innings out of the bullpen instead of 60. That could be worth $3 or $4 million.

[zambonir]

Well, I'm not sure we can characterize 50 or 70 innings as a good season either, but sure, in that sense it's slightly generous (and possibly a big gamble on his health). But mostly, $8-12 million just isn't that much money, especially not on a one-year deal.

It does make you think the Rays screwed up not picking up Morton's option. Heck, they could have traded him!

[andyb]

I would probably rather have Brad Hand at $10 million than Drew Smyly at $11 million.

[zambonir]

Right? If Smyly was already making $11 million and got DFA'd would anyone have claimed him?

What do you suppose Cole Hamels will get this year, minor league deal? He got $18 million last year (pre-prorate of course).

[zambonir]

John Middleton should look to his alma mater to shape future of Phillies’ front...

Oh would they now? I'd certainly consider Cherington as GM, but he's not available for that. His track record without Theo is still slim. And the examples Lauber gives here are all about the short-term fixes and that's not what the Phillies really need, even if they also still want to win now.

[Austinfan]

Problem with Hill is he didn't have much authority until 2007, and since he was in charge, they only had two seasons over .500. (2008 and 2009).

[bigegypt0417]

A thousand times...yes!

[zambonir]

Problem with Hill is he didn't have much authority until 2007, and since he was in charge, they only had two seasons over .500. (2008 and 2009).

Yeah, but it was the Marlins. He was a very respected rising star even before that, with Tampa, and Colorado. Technically he didn't even have much authority after 2007, it was still Beinfest's show, and the owner and president were behind that one terrrible overpaid team, until 2013.

The argument for him would be that he drafted and developed and traded pretty well within the limitations of the Marlins franchise. The argument against him would be that he actually doesn't have that much top-level experience, it was a pretty short run before Jeter started moving in his people. He is someone I would sooner consider for GM than President, which is what he interviewed for in Anaheim. But if we're about to be worse than the Marlins for the next three years, he's the reason.

[Philsmania]

I do think Hill did a fairly good job with the Marlins only to be kneecapped by either a bad owner in Loria or one which decided to rebuild on arrival.

[fish]

I like to think I’m pretty up to speed with the going’s on in baseball, but I had no idea Mike Hill was running the marlins, let alone for the last 15 years lol.

One thing has always impressed me about the Marlins- they continued to develop players no matter how bad they were in the big leagues. He’s not my first pick, but I would t be disappointed if they hired him to be president.

Now Duquette and Cherrington? Good gravy, they’ve been awful. Did someone call in a favor to get their names floated in the press?

[zambonir]

Cherington is another guy who was hamstrung by ownership. And by the natural cycle of winning/development. He still has a ring (in addition to the ones Theo won), and he still built the core of the last Red Sox World Series winner as well. His big failing was trying to repeat that 2013 magic a second time. But his deparure was still mostly soap opera stuff. I am sure he also did good work in Toronto, where he was hired by Mark Shapiro, and I'd hire anyone Shapiro recommended over anyone MacPhail might pick. We're also chasing Antonetti supposedly, which would be the same tree.

But he is already the GM of the Pirates, and if they weren't ready to make him president I don't know that we are.

I think Lauber just thought it was cute to point out that Duquette and Cherington went to the same college as Middleton, it wasn't a leak or a plant. I mean, since they can't find anyone who went to Penn Charter and Penn.

[andyb]

The Athletic on the GM search with a decent list of candidates. Most of the comments are about how hard the search will be. It does mention the Phillies expect to request an interview with Thad Levine of the Twins.

Mets, Phillies aim high, but their front-office searches might be difficult

[andyb]

And also Rule 5 deadline time (11/20). The Athletic with a preview here:

Phillies Rule 5 draft primer: Which players should they protect?

From the article:
Must Protect: Damon Jones, Francisco Morales, Simon Muzziotti
Could Go Either Way: Kyle Dohy, Zach Warren, Nick Maton, David Parkinson (of these I think Maton is pretty certain to be protected. Then at least one of the relievers).
Long Shot: Jhailyn Ortiz
Others Eligible: Austin Listi, Rodolfo Duran, Kyle Young, Kevin Gowdy, Darick Hall

31 on the 40-man roster now so there is plenty of room. Jones, Morales, Muzzioti, Maton, and Dohy would make 36. And there are also some non-tender candidates like Velasquez. And we still have David Hale lurking on the roster.

[bigegypt0417]

Theo Epstein has stepped down as the President of the Cubs...