Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[EDmuch]

Olney hits the nail on the head. For all of his braggadocio, MIddleton is acting much more like the old regieme that ran a small market, extremely cost conscious operation.

[zambonir]

I think Gillick is the only person left with a small ownership share. MacPhail is just an employee with a contract.

Middleton has said he and the Bucks have personally put $100 million in to cover losses and retain employees (up to this point). He may be exaggerating/crying poverty, and he definitely blew it by not exceeding the tax this past year, but his position is pretty clear, and his actions speak louder than words.

The player payroll is the least of it really, they also genuinely seem content to not hire new front office people just to save $10 or 15 million. If we're lucky theyll get a new President in place some time during the season, and a new GM (who will be more like an assistant GM anyway) by the end of the season.

What's ironic is they could have just kept Klentak. Whatever PR benefit there was from firing him is long gone, superseded by the PR nightmare of Emperor's New Clothes and being perceived as cheap.

This right here, from Olney:

That the Phillies have dallied about their front-office leadership is a source of enormous confusion around the sport, because whatever salary is required for the next head honcho in baseball operations is an infinitesimal fraction of what's at stake financially for the franchise, in picking the right players at the right prices, and in the resulting revenues. "It's small-minded," said one executive.

Seriously, it would take a new President and GM 1-2 transactions to pay their own salaries. One good trade or under-the-radar free agent signing and you save $10-20 million in payroll compared to a bad one, or just any big $ free agent. And when fans come back, they won't be rushing down to CBP if 2021 is much like 2017-2020.

[Austinfan]

They may be doing what the Sixers did, treading water until the right person becomes available.

[zambonir]

But the Sixers were already a playoff team with a fixed salary structure, had they not hired Morey, Brand would have been out there looking to deal, and if he couldn't find a deal he still could have come back with the exact same roster and a new coach to make a run.

If the Phillies are waiting for Theo - which would obviously be great! - 2021 is going to be a lost season. But they still have at least a dozen moves to make (including tenders/non-tenders/Rule V) as well as the larger decision of what kind of payroll and team they want to have this season.

History says the Phillies don't wait for the best candidate, but rather, miss out on him. We shall see. The Angels just got someone from the Braves and the Mets are supposedly hot on the Rays people

[EDmuch]

After watching this pathetic display of non-leadership, even if fans ae allowed next year, I would not be surpirsed if few show up.

[Philsmania]

The question this offseason is whether we a) try to squeeze something out of what we've "built" or b) pivot back to rebuilding and it appears that the Phillies PTB are chosing "b" by default or simply lapsing into it.

[zambonir]

It's certainly possible they can do the 2013 Red Sox thing, but you really have to do it right to pull that off. Get lucky on a few pillow contracts or comeback guys, if not Rays-like undervalued guys.

I certainly don't think we're going to see a truly rebuilding team, which would mean Knapp as your starting catcher (with some fungible back-up plus Marchan), Segura at SS, no extra OF of note, no change to the rotation.

The main fulcrum of the off-season is still JT. If you want to chase after Yadi or McCann, and re-sign Didi (or someone like him), and give out one fairly generous relief contract, you need to give up on JT. Or you wait and the rest of the roster is patched together.

It's still early though. We have every reason to be cynical but we also do this every November, and they've answered the bell every year. Unfortunately they didn't have the right answers.

[fish]

Rosenthal at the Athletic shoots down the Erik Neander dream (says Rays won't let him go and he doesn't want to leave) and that the Phillies aren't even actively looking for a GM. I think that confirms all you need to know about their plans to cut costs and PO the fan base this offseason, then hire someone new to shovel out when the dust settles. They are right about one thing- they don't have to spend more money and would still likely finish with as bad a record as they did spending 200 million this year.

[zambonir]

Somehow the Angels and the Marlins both managed to hire in a pandemic! But the Phillies shouldn't be looking for a GM. They need someone who can hire the next GM first. The Rays can't stop Neander from interviewing if the Phillies are hiring a President, but they'd have to actually make that process official. And either way, if he's not dying to go they can also just give him a big raise.

The bigger issue to me is still, can John MIddleton offer the best candidates a sufficiently attractive situation? Not that Theo isn't used to difficult owners, but he's also used to autonomy. Of course I felt the same way about the Sixers. Funny that the situations are similar now, Ned Rice is now, if not Brand, Rucker and the other guys who were really running things for two years.

[flyers19rw]

It does seem that hiring a GM at this point w/o having a new head for the club would be doing things in reverse. From what he has publicly said, it’s obvious that MacPhail is out of here at any time and Rice is interim only. For these reasons, I’m not going to be frustrated as these other teams hire GMs. The new President of the organization, or whatever title that they are going to be given, will be the big deal. It could be Hendry, Colletti or whoever but that job has to be what Middleton is searching for in order to fill.
My hunch is that Epstein is not in the mix. I can’t see him getting the total freedom to operate that he would want from Middleton. Middleton has always wanted as active a part in the organization from the days when he wanted his trophy back, through his involvement in the Harper signing. That type of guy is not turning the keys of the organization to a free wheeling independent guy.

[fish]

My hunch is that Epstein is not in the mix. I can’t see him getting the total freedom to operate that he would want from Middleton. Middleton has always wanted as active a part in the organization from the days when he wanted his trophy back, through his involvement in the Harper signing.

Middleton has earned his reputation as a "meddler" but my sense was that was because, instead of replacing an unsuccessful GM who preached patience over his failed plan, he forced action on him.

[zambonir]

Guess they scrambled to get the word out after the past few days

Stark: Phillies front-office search shifting to interview stage

[allentown]

The B.S. seems to be thick on the turf.

[LoneStarPhan]

The frustration continues.

I really don't know what MacPhail has done in his time with the Phillies. My first thought is nothing. I do know that the results have not been satisfactory. Frankly, I consider him a failure. If, as I assume, he was the man in charge, then the Phillies failures ultimately must be laid on him.

The fans are growing impatient. They want results now.

[andyb]

I really don't know what MacPhail has done in his time with the Phillies.

I think part of the problem is the definition of the job under the Phillies (or lack thereof). He was a big name with credibility brought in to ease the hiring of Klentak and the transition to a more modern front office. But at the same time he seems to have stepped back publicly from most baseball decisions, echoing Middleton at times but really deferring to Klentak (who seems to have been pressured into doing dumb moves by various forces).

The job of President in baseball for good teams seems to have evolved into more of a way to pay good GMs more. In other sports there is a more definitive split and power sharing between a President and GM (like the NFL). In baseball it evolved into a way to give the Billy Beanes and Theo Epsteins more money and control. It assumed that decisions on the baseball team about salary levels and investments were intertwined with baseball decisions. For example, the JT Realmuto question involves not only an evaluation and projection of his baseball skills, but also a risk assessment of paying that salary for 5+ years.

With the Phillies the position seemed to be more senior advisor with no real authority. Baseball decisions and business decisions seemed to be done largely elsewhere. If the best baseball model of a President is just an empowered GM then the Phillies need to define their position as such. Or nobody in demand will take it absent a huge amount of money.

[Dirk41]

Seems like they are in waiting for Theo next off-season

[EDmuch]

What a great idea!! tell your fans to eat dirt for another season,

[bigegypt0417]

https://www.philliesnation.com/2020/11/phillies-appear-close-to-tabbing-a-very-young-new-pitching-coach/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[zambonir]

It's ultimately on Middleton. He hired MacPhail to do Monty's job, but didn't give him Monty's authority (or ownership stake), reserving that for himself. At no point has it ever seemed like MacPhail ran baseball operations in the same way as other teams with their two-headed departments. That's fine, and there's nothing wrong with the fact that MacPhail let his GM do his job. But A) Middleton had other ideas and B) the GM wasn't that good at his job.

So now it's on Middleton again. I get that he does not feel personally qualified to make the hire on his own - that he admits he doesn't know enough about baseball to do that is admirable, really. The problem is his advisers are still MacPhail, Gillick, Terry Ryan, Charlie. I'm sure they are perfectly capable of evaluating candidates to a point. It doesn't take a genius to know if Thad Levine or Chris Antonetti (or Theo) knows what they are doing. But it's still basically a panel of retired guys with no experience in the modern game, or any track record of mentoring someone with a track record in the modern game. At least Sandy Alderson mentored Billy Beane.

Clearly they are starting to see how bad it will be for the team's position in the marketplace if they do nothing. At the same time, what they do, and the success or failure of the roster, will probably have almost no effect on the team's bottom line in 2021. Attendance is gonna be poor or nothing no matter what and lower TV ratings don't make much of a difference (slightly affects their share of ad revenue as a part-owner of the network but that's all).

[Austinfan]

You know, maybe the guy is already in house in Girardi.

Not that he'd want to run everything, but I think hiring him probably required giving him more authority than most managers. So while they may have a targeted candidate or two, in the short-run it may well be the current staff with Girardi overseeing their decisions. And Girardi seems to be in touch with the changes in the game the last decade.