Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[allentown]

I totally agree that a decent organization should be able to produce guys like Segura. Even a mediocre organization should be able to produce serviceable middle relievers. Ours hasn't done so. Which is what makes your defense of our GM so strange -- no, we didn't fail as spectacularly as we did, because the owner focused too much upon win now. We failed spectacularly because of organizational incompetence. I'll assume the deal to pay $2.5 million for a wrong-age guy as our top international signing was a year old, so it took place after Klentak was in his 4th year with the team. In his 5th year, he failed to achieve any reduction on the bonus, despite the lying having over-valued him, plus the MLB penalty having cost a further year of development, now followed by Covid and our $2.5 million bonus, not-really-a-baby has yet to make it state-side for either minor league ST or FIL. Maybe he'll get some real development, before he's old enough to drink. More likely he pockets his bonus and fades awa a la LGJ. This was an utterly disgraceful performance by our scouting org.

There is a problem with dividing the FA budget among many 'chances'. Those 'chances' inevitably keep our minor leaguers from getting a shot in majors. It's fine to shunt a player aside for a star FA. We've done it for the Delmon Youngs of baseball. That's more deleterious to building an organization than signing a FA.

We've signed a lot of college pitcher, with the aim of turning them into relievers, while Klentak was GM and he had a chance to shape the amateur scouting and development staff. These are guys who should move quickly through the farm. Our results are disappointing to say the least. That speaks to the incompetence of the organization Klentak has built/allowed to remain in place.

I did not get the sense that Middleton forced the Segura or J.T. trades upon Klentak. Really any of the trades. Middleton did force Harper, Arrietta, Wheeler signings and the manager had a big role in pushing the Didi signing. Klentak has favored trading away resources to gain talent, over just spending the money his owner has been urging him to spend. That approach, not the major FA signings is what have badly misfired.

Klentak also was hired to make the Phillies a leading analytics-focused winner. He failed miserably in creating an analytical department that actually helped the team.

[Austinfan]

Where am I defending Klentak's approach, to me it's the muddled approach that comes when you don't have a clear strategy.
And I always thought McPhail was overrated, Orioles haven't been a top organization for decades.

To me the problem is Middleton thinking if he took the constraints off spending the Phillies could compete like the Yankees, without addressing the core issues in the organization. The good news is he's finally recognizing that this approach won't work.

[zambonir]

We can't expect Middleton to tell the new President what the plan should be. We need the aspiring Presidents to tell him what the plan should be, and for him to recognize who the right guy with the right plan is.

To some extent it is still not realistic to go into total rebuild mode, but by having no permanent GM and cutting payroll this season, there's clearly not much of a win-now mandate either.

I doubt Klentak had more than one conversation about that international signing. Sal gets to make those calls, and he reports to Minnitti. Whatever the politics and screw-up was there, they were stuck with it. That does seem like a fireable offense though.

I don't think Klentak's trades were bad just because they cost some talent compared to signing free agents. Nor can you separate them, because even though Arrieta, Robertson and Cutch didn't cost anything but money, they still contributed to the poor payroll management as much as Segura (who was himself only here to help move the Santana contract). These were all bad moves because the players weren't good enough (or in Robertson's case, hurt).

You can't separate any of it really. They profoundly misjudged every player they added in 2019 and 2020 except for JT, they misjudged their ability to sign JT, and they missed on nearly all the young players they thought would help the team win for the last two years (Herrera, Williams, Pivetta, VV who wasn't even inherited). They acted as though they had the $ and the talent pipeline to eat (or at least tolerate underperformance from) the back end of these over-30 guys, and now it turns out they don't.

Klentak accomplished very little, but it's also incredible to look back on the past five years and think that Middleton still wants MacPhail and Gillick to set a new direction, and apparently doesn't own a mirror. It's just business as usual in that sense. Somehow Middleton himself can identify the problem - that except for two outlier periods the Phillies don't consistently produce talent or win - but not sure he has a clue how to fix it.

[allentown]

Fortunately, he doesn't need to know how to fix it. He just needs to hire somebody who does know how to fix it and give that person the $ and autonomy to go and do it. And therein lies the advantage of hiring an established, modern baseball leader, rather than an inexperienced guy like Klentak: we didn't have anyone qualified to judge Klentak's ability to step in and quickly begin to do what must be done; nor did we, including after we hired Klentak, have anybody who knew how to determine which stat guys were the right ones to hire and how to assess and incorporate their guidance. When you hire an experienced, modern baseball mind who has already made the changes we seek, all you need to do is look at where his organization was when he was hired and the arc between then and now -- pure observation, easily assessed factual evidence -- no need to judge his esoteric technical knowledge or to have superb b.s. detector. Epstein, if he were in our org, could have adequately assessed Klentak's ability. MacPhail certainly could not, and I seriously doubt that Gillick could. I suspect that Middleton lacks an adequate b.s. detector and that guys who drop a lot of buzzwords could sell themselves to him, just as MacPhail, with his old boy baseball star exec status from days of yore, could snow him -- partly, because Phillies owners have always had too much respect for baseball royalty, whether that be Bill Giles, or Pete Rose, or David Bell, or MacPhail.

[David_Criss]

Experts agree Realmuto going to THIS team

Spoiler alert - The Mets

[BostonRoss]

This same type of exercise probably put Bryce on the west coast two years ago.

[andyb]

I kind of get the impression that the Phillies might go as high as 5/125, but if it goes much higher than that it will likely be the Mets and will also likely be the correct decision to not match.

As we discussed with Bryce, money is an important factor. It will not be the only factor, but free agents don't take a 25% discount in free agency. They do that deal prior to free agency. Once they hit the market the discount is rarely more than 5%-10% to play where they want.

[David_Criss]

I kind of get the impression that the Phillies might go as high as 5/125, but if it goes much higher than that it will likely be the Mets and will also likely be the correct decision to not match.

Totally agree. I hope the Phillies don't go higher than that. Then try to get James McCann 3/30 and save 15 million for other places. Now I hope to see JT back, but not at the cost of the longer picture.

[Patchmk88]

I hope to see JT back too, but wouldn’t be heartbroken if he was overrated somewhere else (except for the Mets - I hate them)

[fish]

Am I crazy that I like the idea of Yadier and Knapp splitting the job? I wonder if a year @ $10 million with a vesting option get's it done. Given where Realmuto is in his career, while it's likely that his per performance will still be solid for many years, more and more of those years will be reduced by injuries natural to the position. That's a pretty big gamble to pay premium money for.

[zambonir]

It's like we're already into the five stages of grief (or a break-up). Is this bargaining?

Six months ago it seemed obvious the Phillies would do whatever it takes to keep him, but that was a team with championship expectations, money, and a general manager. And of course they weren't willing to win a bidding war against themselves, which I can't really fault them for.

At this point I'm more concerned/curious about how much they will actually spend on other players if they lose him.

[David_Criss]

It's official JT rejected the qualifying offer.

[bkeich]

Still can’t believe the Phil’s missed the boat on also getting the pick for Didi. I still really doubt he would have accepted, this is his one chance to get the big payday, I know the league owners are tightening their belts but I would be shocked if he signs for less than 3 years.

[zambonir]

I'll be shocked if he gets a big payday though. If it is three years it might be less than $30 million. Better to just take the $18.9 and try to make $20 million on your next two-year deal.

What bothers me more is that the Phillies couldn't afford for him to take the QO. As a pure value proposition though, it's probably defensible. If you told the Phillies they could just buy the 33rd pick in the draft for $8.9 million they probably wouldn't do it. And if they don't actually replace Didi (i.e Segura moves back to SS) they saved the full $18.9 (minus any tweaks to the bench or 4th OF mix).

[DurhamBull]

Still can’t believe the Phil’s missed the boat on also getting the pick for Didi.

Wasn't there some press speculation that the market for Didi would be something like 1 year for $9m? If that's accurate then the Phils did the right thing.

Here's how I see it: everyone on this board knows that if the Phils made a QO and Didi turned it down, they'd get a free pick. The front office makes plenty of missteps, but I don't think the professionals overlooked this opportunity that was obvious to us amateurs. They must have made the calculation that Didi at $18.9m (or whatever the QO would be) was expensive, and the risk of him accepting was too great, so they decided not to make the offer. I wish I could have been a fiy on the wall of the room where that decision was made because it's an interesting choice, but I don't think they missed an opportunity, I think they actively chose not to pursue it.

[andyb]

The calculation is a bit different in the COVID year though. Many of us suspect that the Phillies are inflating their losses to the public in their press releases (anyone received a rebate from Comcast yet?). One of their advantages is a big market with a good TV contract and a rich owner. In such a situation one needs to use that wealth to add talent.

In that light this is a missed opportunity even if there were a good chance (like 60%) that Didi would accept. They have done a lousy job of using their money to build young talent. The reports on the Boston trade this year suggested the Phillies threw in Seabold to SAVE money against the luxury tax. And going into the luxury tax last year would have been meaningless since they are not signing any QO free agents this year AND that they are cutting salary.

A good organization with money takes some risks to add talent. This organization doesn't do that.

[allentown]

and a rich owner

No, that's simply not true and it has been a big part of the Phillies on-going problems. The Phillies do not have 'an owner'. They have an ownership group -- Middleton and the Buck family, each with almost 50% ownership, plus minor owners, I think including Gillick and MacPhail. Decision-making by group is messy. A single owner is much better equipped to set a bold plan and consistently hew to it. With multiple owners, even if one had a majority stake, compromise is needed. The view of the guys least able to afford losing money is what matters most, not how much money a Middleton is able and willing to lose in pursuit of another WC. The loss of Lee, because the owners were unwilling to go over budget by less than $10 million for a single season was likely do to this dynamic. Getting failed prospects back for Lee, because we only negotiated with a single team in a terrific rush, likely because at least one owner had extreme PR worries, was almost certainly a function of our ownership structure.

[andyb]

It is the public perception they are a rich owner, but yes I get your point about how their structure leads to a muddled outcome.

Meanwhile, ESPN highlights the very point we are making:

Olney: As NL East rivals improve, 'small-minded' Phillies are adrift

[bkeich]

My logic for saying Didi was not going to accept is based on a few things:

He is coming off what is likely the beat season he will ever have (albeit a short season)

He is better off accepting 3 year, $30M than a $18.9M season. Next season he is likely to be the 5th -8th best SS on the open market. A good agent would have noted this. He is not likely to get the same type deal in that market even if a few of those guys sign extensions before then.

He would be taking a huge injury risk to accept and go back in FA again and he has some health issues that make him a high risk player in COVID.

He was going to have to make this decision before FA even started. I think he would have gone for the risk and tried to get the multi year deal.

The Phil’s should have taken the risk, they need to use their cash to help build the farm system and I think this was a good risk with minimal downside (they could have always traded Didi for a quality prospect this season if necessary assuming he continued to play well to a contender in need).

[Austinfan]

If I'm Didi, I jump at the $18.9M in this environment
1) not sure anyone will offer more than one year
2) if you get $19M, you just need to get $11M the next two years to match a 3 year deal, unless Didi implodes, he'll easily get a 2yr/$11M deal a year from now after a vaccine.