Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[BostonRoss]

Teams don't even know if there will be 162 games or whether they will make any money off ticket sales or whether they will have to pay the players their full salaries. DH is a pretty small thing by comparison.

Maybe, but the DH is something that a decision can be made on. The other things are not.

[zambonir]

Well, sort of. While it seems obvious that the union would be pro-DH, it's still something they can hold back consent on as part of the overall negotiations. And the same goes for the owners. Their interest in saving money and squeezing the union exceeds any desire to help GMs assemble their rosters, 1000 times over. Anything that leaves more players unsigned or getting paid less in March is fine by them.

[Patchmk88]

Very unlikely but I thought it was worth a post- https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30256874/predicting-offseason-moves-all-30-mlb-teams#phi

Schoenfield predicts that we resign JT and sign Liam Hendricks and Andrelton Simmons.

Don’t think there’s anyway we can do that financially.

[julio]

Jonathan Mayo on the Phils' Instructional League:

Phillies instructional league prospect report

[Austinfan]

Everyone sounds good!

Seriously, they need a few guys to breakout, McArthur is a big boy, they've had success tweaking mechanics on these guys and adding a couple MPH, he was 88-91, t93, get him to 91-93, t95 with four pitches and you have a starter prospect. Abel and Morales are obviously the hopes, but this is a team that needs #5 starters too.

But the guys who really give me hope (false hope?) are Simmons, Garcia and Rojas. We need to hit on a couple of these types of prospects, don't have enough 1st rd picks and can't build a roster on big money FAs. Think what an Altuve means to Houston, or Acuna for the Braves, or Soto for the Nationals.

[zambonir]

Very unlikely but I thought it was worth a post- https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30256874/predicting-offseason-moves-all-30-mlb-teams#phi

Schoenfield predicts that we resign JT and sign Liam Hendricks and Andrelton Simmons.

Don’t think there’s anyway we can do that financially.

Well they absolutely can do it financially, if they don't significantly reduce payroll compared to last year. But that's a lot to hope. All of this is also obviously predicated on the market being reduced too - remember, ESPN's own projection was that Simmons would only get 1 year, $7 million, though they had Hendricks getting a fat deal. I have a hard time imagining the Phillies handing out another Robertson-type deal even if this past season's plan B went even worse.

Also in the actual write-up Schoenfield says it's merely 50-50 that we sign JT, and that typically the player leaves once he hits the open market.

The problem is JT might be one of the last guys to sign. If the Phillies' Plan B is something like McCann, Didi (bigger bat than Simmons, probably still cheaper than Semien) and an OF they can't wait forever.

[andyb]

Good to hear that report though not sure it means that much. Those types of articles are designed to promote good news about prospects and rarely have critical information.

Interesting nugget on Vierling. Adding corner infield to his portfolio clearly means they are trying to make him a utility bench player. We all know Rojas is the guy with tools there to watch. Just wish he could play against real competition. He is probably advanced enough for the Dominican League. Hopefully he heads down there for a few weeks along with Ortiz.

[Austinfan]

For someone like Rojas, playing against older players in instructs gives them a sense whether he's ready for a rapid ascent next season, he's 20 so that's not that young, if he's filled out and is closer to physical maturity and is that talented, I can see the DWL followed by AA ball next summer if he plays well. Though it might be tough to get slots in winter leagues with so many prospects who'll want to get a chance to play (much like NHL players trying to find slots in European leagues this fall).

That's the thing about the exceptional LA and HS players, if they're for real, they often explode on the scene after a couple years of coaching and filling out.

[phillychuck]

For me the most exciting news was how hard Luis Garcia was working on his strength--that was a real problem for him in full season ball. He's a really smooth middle infielder and he makes pretty consistent bat/ball contact while not swinging too aggressively out of the zone. His problem was that his contact was too soft, which many attributed to him being young and not very strong yet.

[Austinfan]

Yeah, just shows you what hitting on a few special prospects could do for your team:

Marchan - Bohm - Kingery - Garcia - Stott/Simmons - Haseley/Moniak - Rojas - Harper, Hoskins DH
Nola - Wheeler - Eflin - Howard - Abel - Morales

That could be an awesome 2023 lineup if things worked out.
It's how Atlanta remained competitive, just find 2-3 kids outside your 1st rd picks.
And it's why the Phillies have been mired in mediocrity.

[allentown]

That could be an awesome 2023 lineup if things worked out.

But things never work out for the majority of non-stud prospects. Your Haseley/Moniak duo is close to demonstrating that they aren't going to work out. If I were to list guys to hope on for that slot, I'd have Quinn ahead of both of them. Marchan's ceiling seems well below J.T.'s present, with relatively high risk to closely approach his ceiling.

[zambonir]

AF makes these lists every year, not hard to imagine how the 2013 and 2016 projections imagined the roster three years later, and then close to zero of those players actually panned out (or we traded them and shouldn't have, in the latter case). Awesome is a stretch in any case, even Harper and Hoskins might not be star players by 2023 (or in Hoskins' case, on the team).

Of course it's still true we need to hit on a couple of star players internally! Right now I will settle for Bohm and Kingery being an occasional all-star and a 2.0 WAR player, respectively.

But the kind of players Atlanta and Washington have, we don't have. It's not too early to say Stott and Garcia aren't gonna be Acuna or Albies (or even Swanson), and Haseley and Moniak certainly won't be.

And pitching-wise by 2023, Nola will be in his walk year, Wheeler will be in decline and you just can't assume that more than two of the other four names will pan out (whether for health reasons or not reaching their potential reasons).

Two articles today mentioned Herrera, incidentally - Brookover wrote a whole column about it and Zolecki mentioned him as a possible member of next year's 26-man roster. I wonder if they think something has changed because of the new GM, or merely that the financial crunch means you can't afford not to at least try to use a $10 million player if you have one, and their mandate to cut payroll is now more important than the ethical considerations or PR backlash.

[Austinfan]

There are players with Albies upside, Garcia has it, he just turned 20, he has the tools to be a plus SS, he just needed to add some strength to hit. Rojas is another with the high upside. Simmons and Baylor are longer shots. Able and Morales have #1 starter FBs, how their command and secondary stuff develops is the key, Able has the edge there.

Guys like Moniak, Haseley and Stott don't have the same upside.
Marchan might if he develops power, he has the defensive skills and contact to be a Ruiz type catcher, but needs more pop to be anything above that.

Thing is a lot of guys come out of nowhere, look at Altuve and Sixto.
The key is landing one of these guys say every other year instead of once a decade.
The rest are the guys you need to fill out the lineup and provide depth at low cost, so you can afford to carry a half dozen high priced players, whether resigning your own or FAs.

[andyb]

We just can't count on being a good team from development of a below average farm system. This is where you go sideways with your theories. While it is of course a good strategy to sign and draft and develop talent, we have not been that good at that. Why would you expect the Phillies to become a good team with a farm system ranked in the mid 20s out of 30 teams (at best)? Half the guys you mentioned might not develop to be starters or more than middle relievers. Other teams have more good bets to develop when we do. Why do we expect a team that you list with our better prospects to be better than teams like the Braves and Mets which have even more good prospects than we do?

It is possible your scenario could be true. Just not very likely. It is not rocket science to say that it is great to get a prospect like Altuve or Sixto to develop out of nowhere. What it is, however, is wishful thinking. One cannot count on that just as one cannot count on a 100% record of every prospect developing.

[zambonir]

I'm hoping Martin turns into something. But that's just more wishful thinking.

Right now all we can hope is that Barber and the development changes pay off over the next three years, and that they also take a fresh look at international.

But as far as the baseball we're going to watch in 2021 and 2022, we are left with the cards Gillick, Amaro, Klentak and MacPhail played. Come 2023, if we're lucky, more of the guys on AF's list will pan out than not, unlike the players on the 2018 roster who were supposed to be our starting eight and rotation-with-upside for years to come.

[Austinfan]

My point is if we're not doing that, go out and get the best development guy out there to run the team.

If you can build a top farm system, you don't have to make brilliant trades and free agent signings year in and year out - which is why I preach "small market mentality" big market money - how do teams like Houston and TB outperform us over a decade? Anyone can throw money at name free agents, what makes a great executive is drafting, development and recognizing diamonds in the rough.

The advantage of being a big money market shouldn't be in the pursuit of over-30 FAs, but leveraging that money to keep your best talent and sweeten deals (we'll take that bad contract off your hands but want xxx in return).

[zambonir]

If you can build a top farm system, you don't have to make brilliant trades and free agent signings year in and year out - which is why I preach "small market mentality" big market money - how do teams like Houston and TB outperform us over a decade? Anyone can throw money at name free agents, what makes a great executive is drafting, development and recognizing diamonds in the rough.

This is like saying, "you should score more runs than the other team." Who's gonna argue with that? But the Phillies were bad at this stuff back when they didn't spend money and they're bad at it now. And they don't seem to be good at analytics either.

And really, signing free agents and trading for proven players is no less artful - scouting and development (coaching) and money/roster management are all involved there too.

So let's hope the guys they have hired these past few years are better, let's get rid of the ones who aren't and let's get a good GM. That GM will still go out and sign a Harper or a Realmuto or a Jon Lester or a Mookie Betts, but he'll be good at the other stuff too. Klentak's failure wasn't philosphical really, he just didn't have the acument - or the infrastructure - to implement it, and he wasn't that good at just spending money either.

[Austinfan]

Point is if you hire a GM and tell him to win now, he'll make bad decisions to keep his job, we see this all over the sports scene.

The Flyers got lucky in that while Fletcher was under pressure to turn it around, he refrained from big moves, Gudas for Niskanen, signing Hayes at a reasonable contract pre-COVID, and 2nd and 3rd for Braun were all he did - no packaging top prospects or high draft picks to win now. Conversely, Brand blew through a lot of assets.

Klentak made too many questionable moves b/c of that pressure.

If you want to turn the organization around, then hire a GM from an organization that has sustained success drafting, signing LA, and developing players, who knows how to build an organization from top to bottom, and give him the resources and carte blanche to do so - and make it clear that will be the first priority. If you have money to burn and the owner wants to spend, spend it on short-term patches that won't mortgage the future.

Teams like the Dodgers can chase Betts b/c they produce cheap home grown talent, and they're willing to let stars walk in their 30s b/c they have talent behind those stars. You need to build up the talent base, then chase FAs to put you over the top, not build your team.

[allentown]

Point is if you hire a GM and tell him to win now, he'll make bad decisions to keep his job, we see this all over the sports scene.

A GM should be able to sign FA and build the farm at the same time. These are not conflicting pursuits. To me, Klentak's bad moves were the result of his preference for $-protection: trading for talent, rather than simply paying $ for it. Signing FA and riding the salary budget near the cap were exactly the right thing to do. As many consecutive losing seasons as the Phillies had was a sure way to diminish the fan base. Klentak was just a poor (I won't say he can't develop into a good GM down the road, in Philly, he was too much the inexperienced trend-chaser, who didn't have enough skill/contacts to build a strong baseball-side organization) GM. So many signs of incompetence in his organization.

[Austinfan]

If you sign FAs to try and win now while rebuilding, you'll usually do neither (see Angels, etc.).
A few reasons:
1) FA contracts tend to overpay the out years, so when you're ready to compete, you're stuck with albatross contracts.
2) Rebuildling top to bottom requires patience and commitment, if you're under pressure to win now, you trade Sanchez for two years of JT (Alfaro never mattered to me, I'd rather have Marchan). And if you're not going to trade prospects to win now, why commit to big FA contracts to players 30 and over (the bulk of FAs).
3) Psychology, if you're trying to do both, you compromise on both and do neither right because you haven't prioritized and your decision making is muddled.

Now when you have a lot of money, what you can do in the FA market is bargain hunt en masse, that is, you can throw around small bonuses and 1-2 year deals, cut players in camp, and just treat it as sunk costs - and that will help you find "diamonds in the rough" if you have good pro scouts/ML coaches.

Now I didn't mind the Harper (low AVV for long-term career), and Wheeler (reasonable price for strong arm that has shown no sign of velocity decline), b/c they should be solid 3-4 years from now. They're not 2-3 good years then 3 years of overpaying type deals.

But a decent organization should be able to produce internally guys like Segura, 2-3 WAR players at best, and who could suddenly decline at worst.