Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

[nycphils]

Maybe they should put Abel back in AA for the rest of the year to work on his command - he’s got time, but walking 1 per IP in AAA isn’t really helping him and can’t help his confidence.

[Taudawg]

USA Today Farm System Ranking - Take it for what's it is worth, which I'm not sure exactly what that is.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2024/06/11/ranking-all-30-mlb-farm-systems-top-prospects/73992267007/

[kmc1019]

Baseball America with a blurb on IF Aroon Escobar who boasts a >.900 OPS as he approaches 100 AB mark for the FCL team.

Analyzing 10 Standout Complex League Prospects So Far In 2024

Signed out of Venezuela two years ago, Escobar is off to a standout start in 2024 after two uneven seasons in the Dominican Summer League. Slashing .338/.495/.481, he has more than twice as many walks as strikeouts. As one would expect with that kind BB/K rate, Escobar’s plate skills are pristine. The 19-year-old righthanded hitter has an elite in-zone miss rate of 15.8% and a chase rate of only 17.6%. Escobar’s underlying power numbers are also promising, as his 104.4 mph EV is well above age and league average. He has good quality of contact and gets the ball in the air, but struggles to elevate his hardest hit drives. Escobar has the makings of an average-or-better hitter with power projection that will come with further swing optimization.

[andyb]

Prospect ranking update, June version from Matt:

2024 Phillies Prospect Ranking – A June Snapshot

[andyb]

Not completely buying it (though I think we are solidly in the 15-20 range now), but this article puts the Phillies system in the top 10 (10th).

Updated MLB Farm System Rankings, June Edition

[allentown]

It is a strange ranking for the farm and clearly assumes Painter and Abel are going to become plus MLB starters. We don't know what post-surgery Painter will look like and we really don't know if Abel will recover from his current FB woes. We are rated 10 based on our top 3, of which they are #1 and #3. That leaves such a large amount of doubt that I would put us in mid- to high-teens ranking. Abel is just lost at present. Phillies development staff may have terminally messed him up.

[andyb]

Miller and Caba have been significant upside stories for our rankings. Abel is a small downer. McGarry was really replaced by Klassen so that is a wash in terms of system rank. So we are a little better than last year in that respect. Depth is probably a wash. We probably have about the same number of young prospect success stories like Tait as most other systems. Our low minors pitching depth seems pretty weak even as some of our young hitters have made progress.

[rkeden]

Put Abel on a temporary inactive list (tired shoulder?) and bring him to Philly to spend some time with the big club's training staff, pitching coaches, Nola and Wheeler, and get a physical and mental refresh. Allow him to get his confidence back after developing a changed routine. Write off the Spring, refresh, start over! He is too valuable to allow to sulk and to continue doing the "same-old", which obviously is not working.

[Austinfan]

I think Bergolla is underrated at this point,19 years old, put up a .756 OPS with a .356 OBP and a reasonable .325 BABIP at JS. Only has a 11% K rate and his OPS is up to .103. He should hit with a bit more pop as he fills out the next few years.

Nava is another who is playing well for his age at JS.

[zambonir]

In the minors you don't actually need to fake an injury, you just move them to the development list. But I don't think they'd bring him to the MLB team to work on stuff, which would also be a distraction for the major league pitching coaches (beyond whatever Kaplan already does as minor league pitching coordinator). If it was a little break they'd send him to Clearwater and if it was more than that he'd go to Reading.

But, he's probably not going anywhere (pitching tonight). He could also definitely be traded especially with the Sanchez extension (a bit of a sell-low but if you'd rather trade him than Klassen, for instance).

[Austinfan]

Doubt Abel is traded this year, they'll want to work with him in the off season, get him going next spring, see if Painter is ready to go, then they might make him a key chip in a trade next July.

[phillychuck]

I don't see how running Abel out to the mound start after start is helping him at all. He is not a good pitcher right now. Put him on the development list and develop him. His mechanics are very clearly messed up, which leads to injury in many cases.

[kmc1019]

Mavis Graves gets an in-depth look from Baseball America's "StatCast" column. Snipping some sentences rather than posting entire write-up:

Jhonkensy Noel, James Wood Headline 10 Statcast Standouts (June 24th)

We see a true five-pitch mix, headlined by a four-seam fastball that is not a very good pitch from a stuff perspective with below-average shape at only 91 mph. His sinker also looks like a below-average pitch with the current shape and velocity. So why am I writing about Graves? His changeup has gotten a 50% whiff rate against righthanded batters so far this season, and he mixes it in about the same amount as his sweeper and slider, which are currently getting 46% and 39% whiff rates against righties.

His gyro slider has chewed up lefties, with a 70% whiff rate. His sweepier slider hasn’t been nearly as effective. I like the building blocks for Graves. He has a complete arsenal as long as he can fix one of his fastball shapes, most likely the sinker.

[allentown]

Give him back his full array of pitches.

[andyb]

There is definitely a good argument with Abel to move him back a level if he is just working on pitches. It is hard to say from here what the developmental goals are for him though. There was probably the hope he would have improved his command by now and of course the hotter weather is making it tougher for all pitchers. I'd still give the Phillies a little more room to execute their plan for him but fully expect some changes (skip a start or two, simplify what he is working on) in the near future.

[phillychuck]

I've seen him (Abel) pitch live twice this season. His fastball ends up head-high or above about 50-60% of the time he throws it. Has no effect of the batter who just takes it. Then he's behind in the count and walks the batter, or gives him a fat pitch. His mechanics look awful on the mound from release point to follow-through. Send him to CLW and let him pitch for a month just with coaches.

[rkeden]

I totally agree with PC [about Abel].. Change something in a dramatic way so that the young man can breathe. I can't imagine how depressed he is for the 4 days he isn't pitching after one bad start following another. It is time for a re-build. We all know there is talent there but the recurring failure can't be corrected by flipping a switch! I have coached kids whose parents pushed them from a tender age. Usually played only one sport. They get fried. If they don't take time off or find a dramatic reason to enjoy the work, then it is fruitless to keep pushing.

[Austinfan]

6'6 205, 20 years old, HS draft pick - so you can see a lot of potential to add 2-3 MPH as he fills out that frame and polishes his mechanics the next two to three years.

As Nola and Ranger show, 92-93, t95 is more than enough if you have plus secondary pitches and above average command.

The command will take time given that frame, more moving parts when you're that tall, but he's got plenty of time to develop.

[fish]

Miller and Crawford are going to the futures game.

[fish]

Meanwhile, BA’s “Roboscout” identified Tait as the best complex league hitting prospect followed by Caba at #9 and Escobar at #18. Luis Gonzalez was #23 for pitchers.

No one from the DSL, AA or AAA.

Viars was #24 from Low A hitters. Klassen #8 and Graves #13 from pitchers.

Bergolla #9 and Miller #25. Interestingly. Aldegarhi and Cabrera didn’t rank in high A.