Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

[andyb]

92-93 is nowhere near enough for Abel. Nola and Ranger both have superior command of more pitches. Abel doesn't. He is going to probably need to be 95-96 to have a shot and hope his command improves to average. It could happen, but you just can't keep throwing out Nola and Suarez comparisons and say any pitcher can do that. Yes it is possible theoretically. But lots of things are possible but unlikely.

[Austinfan]

I was referring to Graves, who has good secondary pitches.

Abel also has good secondary pitches, seems command of his FB is he weakness right now, his FB may not be an out pitch, but he needs to throw it for strikes to set up his other pitches.

[andyb]

It is a little more possible for Graves, but he is still probably not a great prospect unless he throws harder. There is always a Cole Irvin path, but generally you are talking about replacement level starters there. Major leaguers, but not good major leaguers. Lefties tend to get more swings and misses in the low minors too than righties.

[phillychuck]

I think everyone believe Graves, who is tall and lanky, is going to add some velocity.

[andyb]

That is the hope. I am just not counting on him being a decent prospect if he doesn't.

[andyb]

Updated MLB.com top 100.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

• Painter 19
• Miller 27
• Crawford 55
• Caba 88
• Abel 93

5 players is nice, though to be fair we just have not graduated a top prospect recently because Painter got hurt and Abel stalled. Miller and Caba are clearly upside surprises though as Miller was near the end or off most top 100 lists and Caba was not really on any that I recall before the year. Now we are about to draft a new class of players, so that will likely push everyone down a few spots the next time (players are now ranked a bit higher because of graduations).

[bkeich]

... and to be fair, Abel is just there because of high pick and he WAS a prospect. At the moment, he has clearly dropped out. He can still recover, but I dont think there is any thought that he is going to the majors next season unless things do another 180. He is on his way to Rule 5.

[Austinfan]

On the other hand, Tait and Bergolla are making a push, and Graves might if he adds velocity.

[andyb]

Every organization has a few of those lower level prospects developing though. We are talking about strength at the top relative to other organizations. Miller and Caba surpassing expectations does push us into the average category. Nothing more than the 15-20 overall ranking range though and with Abel dropping we are probably closer to 20.

[nycphils]

Keith Law writing on a number of prospects: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5615303/2024/07/03/scouting-aidan-miller-termarr-johnson-keith-law/

Key takeaways:

• Miller with very good power (average of the top 50 percent of his batted balls — was 99.5 mph), definitely good enough to stick at SS (Law was “stunned” by his ability at SS)

  • Crawford not much to say, was “unremarkable” in this viewing except showed off his speed

  • Aldegheri “ mostly 90-92, touching 94, with a real four pitch mix and solid-average control, although the secondary stuff does depend on him getting ahead more with the fastball”, needs to work on his change up, will be backend starter unless one of his pitches improves a lot

  • Jayden Estanista “sitting 94-95 against High-A Wilmington in a two-inning stint with a plus slider at 82-86”, Orion Kirkering type reliever

  • Emaarion Boyd “(elite athlete, plus raw power, great bat speed, below-average pitch recognition)”

[bkox]

Aiden Miller and Justin Crawford will represent the Phillies in the 2024 Futures Game

[gmwannabe]

I saw him 2 years ago, when he pitched at Reading. He threw so effortlessly. If he recovers fully, does Painter have a chance to be this year's Skenes?
gm

[andyb]

Next year I assume you mean. I think Painter's stuff is a tick below Skenes and he interrupted work on his breaking pitches. But he is close to that high end talent and could make an impact (though for us we'd ease him in as a 5th starter likely after a slow ramp up in the minors.

[gmwannabe]

yes, I did. there was a discussion this morning on WIP on some not hesitating to trade painter. Ben Davis said he and Franzke walked to a side field, two years ago, to watch painter in a simulated game. he threw for 2 innings and Davis was amazed as what he saw. he was adamant about not including Painter in any deal. he said he saw a Zach Wheeler clone, in the body and his pitches. now obviously things can change, but do you bank on projection or temper those thoughts and trade?

[andyb]

I think any trade of Painter would be at a discount so am really not interested in that. The Phillies DO know more about his rehab than any other team, but if there are no issues in his rehab I am not trading a potential 1-2 starter for $0.85 on the dollar value-wise.

The other point is we don't really need a major upgrade at the trade deadline. I don't think Robert is a major upgrade and he comes with a substantial (though reasonable) salary. If we are talking a Juan Soto-like addition then yes, every prospect is on the table. But we aren't.

[gmwannabe]

Tucker??? if available.

[Austinfan]

Phillies need a 4th OF who's an upgrade over Merrifeld/Dahl.
Maybe a long reliever who's an upgrade over Ruiz, though Phillips looked good.

Other than that, not sure anyone would be worth the incremental value given the lack of depth in the farm system.
As we saw after 2008, you can fool yourself into any trade thinking it makes you a lock, in baseball, there are no locks in the playoffs.

Once they get Harper, Schwarber, JT and Walker/Turnbull back, they're about as good as you'd want to be going into the post-season. Are there really closers out there better than Hoffman/Strahm/Kerkering?

[kmc1019]

Baseball America out with updated Top 30 for each team.

Philadelphia Phillies Prospects: 2024 Midseason Top 30 Update

Notable Risers (BA's terminology):
-Klassen 5th (behind Painter, Crawford, Miller, Caba in that order)
-Aldegheri 6th
-Cabrera 7th

Notable Fallers, with comments:
-Abel, all the way to 12th: tweaked delivery has brought disastrous results
-McGarry 30th: not showing enough before injury to give confidence of big league control

[andyb]

I find it hard to believe Aldegheri and Cabrera are better prospects than Abel who are all roughly the same age. Aldegheri and Cabrera have improved, but this looks like an overreaction.

And I might have Tait 5th at this point (and would certainly put Miller over Crawford).

[allentown]

All of which says we can list a very credible top 10. It's been a while.