Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

[andyb]

1 post away from the old prospect topic being full. Might as well combine Phillies and overall prospect ranking talk here.

[Austinfan]

While everyone is focused on the "Big Three," some other pitchers are showing promise:

Plassmeyer is throwing very well
Skirrow is holding his own in AAA
Miller got pushed to Lehigh, his stuff is almost as good as McGarry and he's a LH, has to stay healthy

Baker, Schultze, Schultz, and Sullivan all have big arms in the Reading pen.

[kmc1019]

Couple of prospect articles today. Both great news for the Phillies, or at least would have been if not for trading one of the players involved:

1) Andrew Painter named Minor League Pitcher of the Year by Baseball America:
"Teenagers simply don’t dominate like this. In addition to Painter, the list of sub-2.00 ERAs from 19-and-under pitchers with at least 100 innings in a minor league season includes the likes of Cole Hamels (1.34 ERA in 2003), Madison Bumgarner (1.46 ERA in 2008) and Jose Fernandez (1.75 ERA in 2012)."

Andrew Painter: Baseball America 2022 Minor League Pitcher of the Year:

2) Keith Law names Logan O'Hoppe his top performing Prospect of the Year (and also identifies Painter as Pitcher of the Year):

Law's Prospect of the Year: Angels' Logan O'Hoppe tops 2022 list

[LoneStarPhan]

Gosh, those Phillies must have a really good minor league organization.

[Austinfan]

They do seem to be doing a better job in recent years, haven't blown a 1st rd pick in four years, finding some hidden gems like Ben Brown and O'Hoppe, hitting on some picks outside the first rd like McGarry.

Now if they could just upgrade their LA signings.
It's one thing to miss on a $1+M plus signing, but to miss on every $1+M signing for a decade?

[andyb]

More accolades for Painter:

Phils' Painter named Pipeline Pitcher of the Year

[Squire]

BA Top 10

1. Painter
2. Abel
3. McGarry
4. Crawford
5. Rojas
6. Lee
7. Miller
8. Rincones
9. Muzziotti
10. Wilson

[allentown]

And not a one of our costliest LA amateur signees on the list. A sad indictment on our LA operation.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Assuming you are talking about Bergolla, I think he will be on the top 10 of many other lists.

[zambonir]

I reckon Atown's talking more about the absence of Garcia (as well as Ortiz). Good news if Bergolla breaks that streak.

[allentown]

I reckon Atown's talking more about the absence of Garcia (as well as Ortiz). Good news if Bergolla breaks that streak.

Yep! Ortiz's bonus is pretty close to two years of our international allocation nowadays, if you adjust for just real economy inflation. You have to get something substantial for those $, especially after whiffing on Encarnacionat $1 million. And Yhoswar? Giving the pre-agreed $2+ mill bonus to a guy who lied about his age and was in line for a year disqualification because of that, Garcia had to REALLY be something to justify the Phillies paying him all those $ under the circumstances. A .613 OPS in low-A and missing most of the year doesn't cut it. I don't deny Bergolla will make some Phillies top 10 lists, probably including yours. He did well in DSL and he rides the crest of the big bonus, but until he comes stateside and performs top 10 may be premature. Guttierez was a $3+million signing, Luis Garcia and Starlyn Castro bracket either side of $2 million

[andyb]

Can't we celebrate Lee as a tiny international success? Big bonus too and our first Asian signing who has shown any hint of actual prospect status. The Doug Takaragawa era (and subsequent decade in the wilds) is finally over.

[zambonir]

Well to be fair Allentown said LA, not Int'l.

[allentown]

We can. Lee seems a large international success. That's why I spoke only of Latin American signings and did not list the two infamous Koreans among the high $ busts, since Korea isn't in Latin America. And yes, as you mention Dough Takaragawa specifically, the Latin American scouting/development in LA academies, is quite different from the rest of our international program. One can't dismiss our severe problems in finding/signing/developing our highest $ Latin American signings by citing an Asian success. The LA prospect Muzziotti also wasn't addressed by me because we didn't find him; we signed him on the rebound after the Commissioner made him a FA.

[andyb]

Just trying to take the glass half full attitude. I know very well our lack of success at the top in recent LA signings is an issue. Ortiz was many years ago. No reason to think Bergolla is a bad signing. I think we overpaid a bit but completely willing to give him a chance.

An international draft with slots would certainly help us since we are so bad at negotiating.

[Austinfan]

Though Houston shows big money signings may be overrated, most of their hits have been small money, and one thing they do is look at older LA pitchers who actually know how to pitch - focusing more on command and spin rates than projecting mid-90 FBs. They found a market niche that hadn't been exploited.

That may be a niche the Phillies are learning to take advantage of at the high minor league level, look for AAA pitchers who can be tweaked - Bellotti, Nelson, Alvarado, As we've seen in the recent past, bad pitching coaches can set a player back. Ortiz may be their next project.

[zambonir]

Or Ortiz could be gone by December, who knows?

[allentown]

Ortiz isn't that long ago, as he's still in our farm system and eligible to make our top 10 list, if only he were good enough. I agree there is no reason to believe Bergolla was a bad signing. Also not much reason this soon after signing to believe he will be a success. At this career point almost all of our top $ international guys were considered top 10. The problem which is the Yhoswar signing was instantly apparent. Ortiz was regarded as a guy whose perceived value had sunk since we made our commit to him, who wasn't worth $4 mill, but who was still regarded as a legit prospect. The extent of his offensive holes emerged fully over time.

I have been reading posts, going back to but not limited to Tiggerhawk at the time a decade or more ago, about this new academy or other change meaning the past was past and our LA operation had been successfully turned around. With the failure of all those turnarounds and the same top LA guy, I'm going to reserve judgment on Bergolla and the latest announcements of a turnaround until tangible success of our biggest $ guys is seen at levels above the DR summer leagues. It really takes until A ball to start drawing such a conclusion about one guy. And one guy doesn't mean the trajectory of our LA program has swung drastically upward -- blind squirrel and all that.

[gmwannabe]

I think, from what I am reading, some of the young Latin Pitching signings might be moving up real soon. looking forward to following about 5 or 6 of them.
gm

[allentown]

Yes, we have had successes among low $ signings -- the sort of guys who sign for few enough $ that approvals from up the organization aren't needed for the signing. What has been glaring to me on the LA level for many years (and on the draft post-Arby and prior to later changes to re-fix the situation) was that we failed consistently on the highest $ LA signings and top round draft picks, precisely the signings that not only consume well over half of the budget but that also are scrutinized by a ton of people up the ladder. We do relatively better on the guys who are signed on little more than a scout's say-so, because of the low $ amount. Both the low $ LA pitchers and the Long Island draft signings fall in this category. To me, that means we have a good number of quality scouts, but things get mucked up when our higher-level baseball people stick their thumbs into the pie. As I said, seemingly fixed on the draft side. LA still seems broken.