Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

Austinfan 2024-01-27 14:06:03 UTC #404

I think "culture" and resources go hand in hand with drafting.

When you have a weak development system, you will trend toward more polished prospects with higher floors, when you have confidence that you can develop raw prospects, you'll take more chances with athletic but unfinished prospects.

And there should be feedback, your instructors should be looking at video of prospects and noting if their flaws seem correctable. You can fix a hitch in a swing, you can't teach reaction time or eye to hand coordination.

zambonir 2024-01-27 14:43:15 UTC #405

I think the other team still got the "steal" in that transaction but at least we don't have to cry about it anymore. (And the Phillies are winning it purely at the major league level to date!)

allentown 2024-01-27 21:35:28 UTC #406

It's good to have 4 prospects in the top 100, with Rojas graduated. I'd like one in the top 25 as I'm most interested in impact guys to boost the system, but if Painter returns from injury with his ability unimpaired, I expect him to be in top 10, so that's fine.

Austinfan 2024-01-28 00:26:14 UTC #407

I'd like to see 2-3 new guys make it next year, instead of prospects spending 3 years on this list.

bkox 2024-01-28 00:27:02 UTC #408

Kinda impressive that our last 4 first round picks are on the list and we havent had a top 10 pick in that time.

bkox 2024-01-28 00:32:19 UTC #409

The only way any of these 4 wont be on the list next year is if they regress. None are going to be in the majors this year. Abel might see MLB action but probably not enough to bump him off the list

Austinfan 2024-01-28 03:18:31 UTC #410

That's my point, we're not finding guys who fly up the ladder (though Painter would have if not for injury).
Abel's a good prospect, but his improvement has been incremental.

I'd love to see some guys take off like rockets, Tait or Caba suddenly break through and jump two levels a year and only spend a couple years on these lists.

andyb 2024-01-28 14:22:03 UTC #411

Agree it is good to have 4, though this is really an artifact of our drafting strategy and injury. We draft more high school first rounders than most organizations. A top 100 college prospect usually is on the list for 2 years while a HS draftee can easily be on the list for 4+. Where we have mostly failed in recent years is with college prospects. Even the ones that hit the top 100 have not been that good. Even Adam Haseley (a huge draft mistake including going over slot on his bonus) made the end of the top 100 one year.

Improvement will most likely come internationally. Remember almost one third of players in the majors are international and these players spend more time in minor league systems because they are signed 2 years earlier than HS draft picks. Was Sixto our last international top 100 prospect? Clearly it has been a while. (Edit - Curtis Mead.....) Hopefully Caba can break through this year though this is a lot to ask of a player with no U.S. track record who was pretty good but not dominant in the DSL. A $3 million bonus should yield a top 100 prospect.

zambonir 2024-01-30 14:31:09 UTC #412

https://twitter.com/PhilsTailgate/status/1751690803703881974

Phillies Top 100 Prospects according to MLB Pipeline every year since 2016:

2024: #27 Andrew Painter, #49 Mick Abel, #61 Aidan Miller, 77 Justin Crawford

2023: #6 Andrew Painter, #48 Mick Abel

2022: #45 Bryson Stott, #81 Mick Abel

2021: #42 Spencer Howard, #76 Mick Abel

2020: #30 Alec Bohm, #34 Spencer Howard, #87 Bryson Stott, #97 Luis Garcia

2019: #59 Alec Bohm, #77 Adonis Medina

2018: #26 Sixto Sanchez, #35 Scott Kingery, #37 JP Crawford, #86 Adonis Medina, #88 Mickey Moniak, #95 Adam Haseley

2017: #7 JP Crawford, #19 Mickey Moniak, #72 Jorge Alfaro

2016: #5 JP Crawford, #55 Jake Thompson, #64 Nick Williams, #70 Mark Appel, #84 Cornelius Randolph, #96 Jorge Alfaro

zambonir 2024-01-30 15:45:39 UTC #413

Posted this in the former Phils thread, but also of interest:

In a "Moneyball" moment, he discovered that his model didn't jibe with the MLB's official rankings. Today, he says, more than 80% of the players BLA has invested in are outside the league's top 300 prospects. I ask if signing lower-level candidates is a conscious choice to maximize value. "No, we just think the rankings are terrible," he says.

andyb 2024-01-30 17:46:57 UTC #414

Missed that Luis Garcia top 100 status. Seems like such a long time ago.

andyb 2024-01-30 17:55:42 UTC #415

One more prospect list - not a very good one if you read the comments. Not sure Emaarion Boyd has emerging power or Gabriel Rincones has great speed.

zambonir 2024-01-30 18:00:21 UTC #416

Yup, that and the six guys in 2016 and 2018 both jumped out.

andyb 2024-01-30 20:02:27 UTC #417

Interesting that Stott makes it in 2020 then does not make it in 2021 after the pandemic season in which nobody played (though there were still graduations to the majors).

andyb 2024-01-31 13:09:52 UTC #418

In today's episode, @ConnorThomas975 is joined by @CrosbyBaseball of @LockedOnFarm to discuss the prospects to keep an eye on for the Phillies in 2024! https://t.co/Yz4b08jN61 https://t.co/L1edB7cyKp pic.twitter.com/p3n2M63wn6
— Locked On Phillies ( @LO_Phillies ) January 30, 2024

DurhamBull 2024-01-31 14:43:30 UTC #419

Thanks @zambonir for posting that article! I really enjoyed it.

IMO there's a ton of opportunity to find fault with what BLA is doing, and I don't think there's enough information in the article to judge. I do think that part of the umbrage directed at him is that he's simply calling attention to inequities in the system, and those who are currently reaping the advantages of those inequities dislike the attention, and the competition that BLA represents. How many teenagers (especially one who grew up poor) are savvy enough to confidently sign a deal involving six or seven figures and events that play out over decades? Probably very few, but is keeping them poor the best alternative?

I think the author buried the lede, which is in the 4th-to-last paragraph:

andyb 2024-01-31 19:51:58 UTC #420

ESPN Top 100. Only 2 on this list. Painter (16) and Abel (78).

kmc1019 2024-02-05 16:55:59 UTC #421

Keith Law Top 100.....he is higher on Justin Crawford and lower on Mick Abel than others:
34: Andrew Painter
43: Justin Crawford
89: Aidan Miller
Unranked: Abel

kmc1019 2024-02-06 15:02:38 UTC #422

Law with his follow up "10 who just missed" with Abel first player described. Summary is that he loves Abel's stuff but that command holds him back from being a top tier prospect.

andyb 2024-02-09 17:30:57 UTC #423

Number 19!!!!