Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

[bkeich]

It would be really fun to have a guy around with his speed. To me speed is the most underrated skill in baseball, it isn’t well accounted for having a guy who is a threat to steal on the bases. Hitters get more fastballs, catchers are distracted, fielder’s are distracted and move closer to bases, etc. it adds excitement and the guys behind a real base stealing threat get better pitches to hit and get free “balls” with pitch outs.

[andyb]

What we are talking about is a much more polished Johan Rojas. If Crawford can provide defense that is almost as good but pair that with a much better hit tool it is really an enticing combination in CF. Not sure they generate enough power to have both in the OF at one time, but more options are better than fewer. Crawford just needs to elevate the ball more. That will lead to more swing and miss most likely, but would probably be a pretty good tradeoff.

[zambonir]

Yeah I would like to see Miller be more highly regarded because the Phillies need corner bats (and a 3B specifically) more than they need CFs, or good defensive OFs with lighter bats.

It's hard to imagine that Marsh (still only 26 this year and not a free agent until 2028), Rojas (will turn 24 in August, FA in 2030) and Crawford (20 years old) will all be on the Phillies together (or if they are, just for a single or partial season).

[Austinfan]

It's really not a huge swing, the odds of making the majors after the 1st rd are pretty low, and most who do are RPs and utility players after the top 50 or so. So if 9 of 10 of your picks from the 3rd to 10rd are likely to flame out in AA or at best be 1 WAR players - it makes sense to take risks on upside rather than an AAA floor.

[allentown]

If Rojas and Crawford develop, as I think they are able to, at least on a reasonable ceiling basis, then they can be 2/3 of our starting OF. Rojas stank with the bat in the playoffs but was satisfactory during the regular season and, apparently, has been working very hard this off-season on pitch selection and a quieter swing that puts the bat in the zone longer. He may grow into increased strength, although that is far from a given.

[andyb]

A 21-year-old Jalvin Arias will be bashing 30 HRs a year by 2028, right?

[allentown]

Not that soon, but could be in 2030. I think odds against, but could be. The LA stars often excel in MLB at 20-21 but he's not in that category. It well could be a Castellanos/Schwarber-style 30HR season for him in 2030: poor BA and defense to go with the HRs.

[andyb]

Phillies 2024 Top Prospects – Sign of Life 7-15

[andyb]

And the rest:

Phillies 2024 Top Prospects – The Top of the List

[zambonir]

I know there are all sorts of variables and contexts here, and he still has him above Crawford, but Matt's write-up of Aidan Miller reminds me of one of those Pitchfork reviews where the the record got a 7.9 but the writer makes it sound more like a 6.5.

[Austinfan]

I think Mattingly's philosophy can be seen all through this list - more players who are high risk/high upside.

Miller is a good example, gamble on injury, fixing minor swing mechanic issues, start him as SS more to make him more valuable as a 3B who can move to SS in a pinch than a SS prospect (Rincon, Caba, et al are better bets). Plus get him more fielding reps. Not as safe a pick as Bohm but more upside.

Its a double gamble, more big swings but also a lot of investment in resources to increase the odds of "contact" with those big swings.

[andyb]

Mattingly is not doing the drafting. They probably started Miller at SS to ease his transition and delay learning a new position until the offseason. They would probably love him to stay at SS also, but there is not much in his background to suggest that is his long term position. Miller is actually a relatively low risk player for a HS pick. He has a decent hit tool which gives him a high floor. His older age limits his upside a bit. Still lots of questions on power and defense, so there is definitely a ceiling with the pick. Just would not characterize it as a high risk pick. Painter and Abel were our high risk first round picks. Miller and Crawford were more the high floor with upside picks.

[Matt_Winkelman]

I would say it is more Barber (or Dombrowski) than Mattingly, unless you are referring to the infrastructure as Mattingly's contribution. Mattingly's biggest contribution is probably culture changes. Loading up Clearwater to build a winning culture that also was fun and exciting. The High Performance camps and generally a large amount of support and dev resources for the players, and the players buying in. They haven't had any big breakouts and they have definitely had some dev failures, but I think generally the floor of prospect in the system is raising rapidly in the lower minors.

Also if anyone has any questions for me on the list or not, just let me know, I am happy to answers or clarify things.

@zambonir I am sorry it came across negative, I actually really like Miller and had to hold myself back at times.

[miker]

I just want to thank Matt for these write-ups. I look forward to them every year.

[zambonir]

I didn't think it was negative and like I said there's a lot of nuance and context and variables. And I guess a "High" risk player is still better than an "Extreme' risk player. It's just as easy to cherry-pick your hedges ("worries are numerous enough") as your optimism ("could be a plus hitter with plus power and settle into the middle of a postseason lineup).

[Austinfan]

The vast majority of your draft picks are going to fail.

Drafting for floor is a CYA strategy, "look at all our good prospects" (until they get to AA or AAA and their limitations are exposed).

Drafting for upside is a better strategy as long as you stay above the development equivalent of the Mendoza line.
And if you combine this with a strong emphasis on developmental resources and a winning culture, you should improve the odds of success.

In the end, you can always find 0-1 WAR players on the waiver wire or AAA plus guys, but 3-5 WAR cost control players are gold.

[Squire]

Updated BA Pre-Season Top 30
1. Andrew Painter, RHP
2. Justin Crawford, CF
3. Mick Abel, RHP
4. Aidan Miller, 3B
5. Starlyn Caba, SS
6. Orion Kerkering, RHP
7. Bryan Rincon, SS
8. William Bergolla, SS
9. Eduardo Tait, C
10. Gabriel Rincones, OF
11. Griff McGarry, RHP
12. Devin Saltiban, SS
13. Tayshaun Walton, OF
14. Carlos De La Cruz, OF
15. Samuel Aldegheri, LHP
16. Christian McGowan, RHP
17. Alex McFarlane, RHP
18. Wen Hui Pan, RHP
19. Caleb Rickets, C
20. Raylin Heredia, OF
21. Kehden Hettiger, C
22. Simon Muzziotti, OF
23. Emaarion Boyd, OF
24. Anderson Navas, C
25. Jalvin Arias, OF
26. Hendry Mendez, OF
27. Andrew Baker, RHP
28. George Klassen, RHP
29. Tommy McCollum, RHP
30. Jacob Eddington, RHP

[Squire]

MLB Pipeline Top 100

27 RHP Andrew Painter
49 RHP Mick Abel
61 3B Aidan Miller
77 CF Justin Crawford

[zambonir]

Was that the aforementioned Jim Callis tease?

[fish]

Updated BA Pre-Season Top 30
1. Andrew Painter, RHP
2. Justin Crawford, CF
3. Mick Abel, RHP
4. Aidan Miller, 3B
5. Starlyn Caba, SS
6. Orion Kerkering, RHP
7. Bryan Rincon, SS
8. William Bergolla, SS
9. Eduardo Tait, C
10. Gabriel Rincones, OF
11. Griff McGarry, RHP
12. Devin Saltiban, SS
13. Tayshaun Walton, OF
14. Carlos De La Cruz, OF
15. Samuel Aldegheri, LHP
16. Christian McGowan, RHP
17. Alex McFarlane, RHP
18. Wen Hui Pan, RHP
19. Caleb Rickets, C
20. Raylin Heredia, OF
21. Kehden Hettiger, C
22. Simon Muzziotti, OF
23. Emaarion Boyd, OF
24. Anderson Navas, C
25. Jalvin Arias, OF
26. Hendry Mendez, OF
27. Andrew Baker, RHP
28. George Klassen, RHP
29. Tommy McCollum, RHP
30. Jacob Eddington, RHP

Besides Navas over Arias, it’s interesting they have Mendez over the unranked Moore. The next step in the scouting and development improvement is finding and developing steals from other systems like Sanchez and Kemp. You can see where from the outside looking in after #9 it drops off a lot, but I see 5-10 guys with potential to improve to top 10 system prospects. Everything is improving, they just need more guys to work with.