Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

[andyb]

Tait is a catcher, who had a great year in the DSL at 16, already is showing good power and hasn't grown up yet. Could flatline like any prospect, but in terms of upside, might have the highest ceiling outside of Painter b/c he isn't an early maturation freak like Ortiz. He's was listed at 6'0 175, so it's easy to imagine him filling out to 6'1 200 in a few seasons. Average raw power, plus arm, good athlete, the raw tools are there to develop him.

You know very little of that. He is a kid with plus power at a young age. He could be exactly like Ortiz. We are uncertain how good an athlete he is. We are uncertain he can hit real pitching. He is all questions. Nobody is untouchable even if they look good from afar.

[LoneStarPhan]

….and yet it is possible that a prospect might actually turn out to be a great ML player.

I always have hope.

[andyb]

Hey, I love Tait as a prospect. But he is so far away it is really hard to know what he is. Kids that show power at his age may very well be physically developed beyond their peers and have less room to improve. He also has a strong chance to not be a catcher since he is a big kid. We have seen many like him who become glorified DHs by the time they are 22 or 23. Sebastian Valle tore up the DSL too as a 16-year-old with a much better BB/K ratio. He was better defensively so remained a catcher, but nevertheless topped out in AA and then the Mexican League (still hanging on there at age 32).

We don't want to trade Tait in an undervalued deal, but if we value him properly as someone in the back half of our top 10 (like Hao Yu Lee who at age 20 was having a solid season in a tough offensive park in High A as a middle infielder) then I am fine dealing such a lottery ticket if we get something worthwhile in return. We (the Phillies and not those of us on the board) know Tait best. So if we trade him, I imagine we have a pretty good idea of his long term value.

[zambonir]

I don't subscribe to BP but it is certainly interesting that they still had McGarry and De La Cruz in their Top 10 where Fangraphs had them 25 and unranked, respectively.

[andyb]

Matt starts his list early this year:

Phillies 2024 Top Prospects – Intro & 39-53

[allentown]

I read the write-up on Ricketts with the summary 'High risk' of ceiling of 'bat-first #3 catcher' and concluded from this point down must be a wasteland, since the Phillies don't even carry a 3rd catcher on the 26-man roster. Then I saw Wilson two slots lower. That seems the definition of a wasted 2nd round pick. I think I'd have the pitcher De la Cruz higher, but then I've always had a thing for tall pitching prospects. I will be interested to see how far up his prospect list we need to go to reach a half-way real prospect.

[zambonir]

I don't think a ceiling of third catcher makes you a bad prospect necessarily. The line between that and someone who actually does wind up as a back-up in MLB for a few seasons is pretty fine - including both of our current 40-man catchers not named JT.

Ironic that Wilson was the one year the Phillies actually had a second-rounder.

[Austinfan]

Problem for Ricketts is the rule changes make a subpar arm a real liability for a catcher, and it's doubtful he has a 1B bat.

[andyb]

Still not real prospects, but getting closer:

Phillies 2024 Top Prospects – In Limbo 33-38

[allentown]

I find Walling's reduction in BBs after moving up to JS to be encouraging and the K-rate improved. Being 24 at JS isn't encouraging, but of the guys on this list, he's the one who makes me think: perhaps?

[bkox]

A poll of 30 MLB execs (one from each team) ranks minor leaguers

Justin Crawford gets #1 in the speed category, Painter gets #3 in pitchability. Kerkering and Painter tie for 6th in best secondary pitch. Painter also got votes for best fastball.

Best fastball? Most usable power? Executives make their picks

[andyb]

23-32. Getting closer to real prospects.

Phillies 2024 Top Prospects – MLB Depth and Risky Low Minors – 23-32

[andyb]

Phillies 2024 Top Prospects – The Once and Future Threshers 16-22

[andyb]

I admit I find Saltiban fascinating. It is rare to see a HS outfielder (in a non high impact league) be converted to SS based solely upon scouts watching him practice. I always figured he was the typical HS shortstop with the speed to play CF.

He looks to be on the extremely long road of development. It seems a huge swing on a high pick for Barber. Hopefully he is right but we might not know for 3 or 4 years.

[bkeich]

I admit I find Saltiban fascinating. It is rare to see a HS outfielder (in a non high impact league) be converted to SS based solely upon scouts watching him practice. I always figured he was the typical HS shortstop with the speed to play CF.

He looks to be on the extremely long road of development. It seems a huge swing on a high pick for Barber. Hopefully he is right but we might not know for 3 or 4 years.

I honestly thought you meant the movie at first and was very confused. Disturbing movie.

[Squire]

MLBpipeline.com doing their Positional Top 10 review and started with RHPs

4. Andrew Painter

7. Mick Abel

[Squire]

BA with their new Top 100

12 Andrew Painter, RHP

63 Justin Crawford, OF

64 Mick Abel, RHP

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder with Jim Callis teasing that Aidan Miller is going to make a big jump on their 100 and he doesn't even make BA's

[bkox]

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder with Jim Callis teasing that Aidan Miller is going to make a big jump on their 100 and he doesn't even make BA's

Fangraphs doesnt like Crawford and BA obviously does

[andyb]

There are some major swing issues for Crawford to address, but it does seem that he has the strike zone control and strength to do so. I probably like him more than Miller (who is almost the same age as Crawford).

[phillychuck]

I guess AA this season will tell the story for Crawford, who just turned 20 a few days ago. If he has the same success he has had in A-ball in AA he will be a top 100 prospect on everyone's list. What's not to like about a speedy, + defensive CF who posts a near-.400 OBP with a .130 ISO? Fangraphs would get on board quickly, even if his ceiling isn't perennial all-star.

It's pretty impressive that he's hitting 300 and OPSing over 800 in 'high A' with serious swing issues, honestly. It gives him something specific he can improve which would make his production jump, and some players don't have that.