Phillies Spring Training Discussion 2024

[bkeich]

Honestly, I would keep Rojas no matter what. He is a solid player because of defense and he offers the extreme threat of speed. Assuming he can manage to get his OBP to .300 he is worth the growing pains of getting to be a better hitter at the ML level.

[zambonir]

Yeah Rojas can hit .225. But batting average not a useful metric in any case. If he has a .650 OPS he is still going to add more value to the team than Bohm or Castellanos hitting .300, frankly. Less than that and you just might not want him up so he can work on his hitting more under less pressure.

They basically handed Rojas the job when they didn't sign any other OFs. Merrifield is an insurance policy at best (and would also mean a whole lot of Jake Cave).If they don't keep Pache - hard to do given both his RHB and lack of options - that basically seals it.

And let's not forgot - pitchers ate him up in the post-season but that doesn't mean he'll get pitched that way, or struggle the same way, in the first half of this season. Even if you dock him 100 OPS points for luck/first time through, he had a .342 OBP and .771 OPS last year (and did indeed hit .300).

If he is able to get his bunting/infield single game going that will help the OBP as much as walks.

[Austinfan]

Given the cost of pitching, an elite defensive CF has synergistic value that may not be picked up by metrics - every hit he takes away is 5 or so pitches that aren't thrown each start.

[BostonRoss]

I think Rojas should stay on the big club unless it becomes clear that his hitting would benefit from more time in the minors. I’m not in a position to judge that, but the coaching staff is.

[bkox]

If you're Big Rob, what must Rojas do to stay with the Phils? I'm guessing he must hit .275+

if we are using .275 as a benchmark, then most of the lineup needs benched. Only 3 (Harper, Marsh and Stott) finished above that number last year.

[zambonir]

Definitely the B line-up/Sunday off-day vibe today. Castillo already gave up two one-run homers in the first. (Game is on MLB.TV via Pittsburgh feed.)

Phillies lineup @ PIT at 1:05 p.m. on 94WIP.

Rojas 8
Hall 3
Bohm DH
Sosa 6
Cave 7
Clemens 5
Castro 4
Stubbs 2
De La Cruz 9

Castillo RHP

— Todd Zolecki ( @ToddZolecki ) March 10, 2024

[Callison]

bk - I'm LOOKING for some standard that says Rojas belongs. I chose .275 cause that would convince me but good that Rojas was no longer over-matched by ML pitching. z-dog says .650 OPS. What do you say?

[zambonir]

He hit .302 last year. Highest batting average on the entire team except for Weston Wilson.

Is that unsustainable/a small sample? Yes. Is the small sample of his playoff performance or spring training so far any more meaningful.? No.

[bkeich]

I would say a 650 OPS would be a little disappointing, but with his defense it would still make him an ok player. So, to me, you have hit on a good number there, that is about the “line”.

Our need for OF defense is somewhat extreme with Castellanos out there, and if Schwarber gets sent out there again because of an issue (or to a much lesser degree Harper) then the need is even more extreme.

Garry Maddox was a great player, not so much for his offense (although some years he was very good), but it allowed the Phillies to put the Bull in LF in his prime, and he was a powerful offensive weapon (until he wasn’t).

Rojas being on the field allows us to play others that are painful in the field.

[bkox]

bk - I'm LOOKING for some standard that says Rojas belongs. I chose .275 cause that would convince me but good that Rojas was no longer over-matched by ML pitching. z-dog says .650 OPS. What do you say?

The entire MLB hit a combined .248 last year. So just .250 would be above league average.

.650 OPS would be disappointing, but I would be happy with .700. Rojas's elite speed should get him a few extra hits. And his ability to steal a base when he does get on also adds to his value. Only caught 1 time in 15 tries last year. If he can continue to have that kinda success rate, hes a 50 SB a year threat.

[zambonir]

WAR will ultimately tell the tale. Rojas needs to hit more to have a long career as a premier everyday player, the only question is can he learn and develop at the major league level. The issue of whether he's good enough to be on the team currently is really a non-issue, he will provide more WAR than Bohm, Castellanos, and possibly Schwarber. (Like a minimum of 2.0. If he hits, will be 3-4).

And this team has carried deader weight the past two seasons (Turner the first half of last year, Castellanos the year before, everyone who played LF and 1B last year besides Harper and Marsh) who also brought nothing defensively.

To me where it gets interesting is what the Phillies want to do with Pache. You could still make the case to just give him the CF job - yes even against RHP most days - and let Rojas have a couple of months in AAA, just because he has the options and you lose Pache or Cave otherwise.

[zambonir]

Phillies Opening Day roster projection: Who gets the final spots?

Not much of an exercise to do here but a few highlights:

• Rojas and Cave (with the possibility of someone outside the org taking the fifth spot), no opinion on Gelb's part that Rojas isn't sticking or Pache would make it either way.

• Merrifield two starts a week in LF (I could see him getting two a month at 2B)

• Schwarber over/under 12.5 starts in LF. Taking the under there. Would certainly be a stronger offensive OF to give Rojas the odd day off against RHP and also a way to give Harper a few DH starts. But then Cave (or whoever is LH bench bat) or Merrifield is your 1B.

• Covey is hurt so the bottom of the pen is more wide open. He thinks Ortiz could take the last spot. That Mercado (who is being conditioned for long relief) isn't quite there and they hope Turnbull will accept trip to minors and stay on starter schedule. Brogdon just isn't pitching well enough to overcome the lack of options. But, so long as everyone is healthy they could still hide him as the 8th guy for a while (also might be easier to get him through waivers after a couple of weeks. But it might already be easy).

[Callison]

Rojas has a long way to go before he gets a spot. If theathletic is predicting the opening day roster, today you'd have to project Rojas gets sent down, but theathletic hands him a spot anyway. You can write stuff like that without watching the games. Saw Cave got a couple hits yesterday. After doing nearly nothing all last season, he gets a spot? Cave should have to hit his way onto this team and that's far from done today.

If Rojas gets sent down, Merrifield will start in LF.

Why will Schwarber ever get PT in LF??? That was only to accommodate Harper's injury.

Some here think Covey is an asset, but IMHO you can never tell what he's going to do on the mound. He's one of those guys the Phils just fell in love with, and it doesn't seem to bother them at all that he's way inconsistent. Last time I saw Ortiz pitch, he got out of an inning, but only because two scalded liners happened to be right at IFs. He could be in personal danger on the ML mound. Castillo might be gone after yesterday after looking OK the previous outing. But the Phils have stockpiled a bunch of arms, and I'm hoping a couple lesser-knowns win the spots rather than Covey and Ortiz.

[zambonir]

Yes, you know more than the guy who covers the team. Everything the Phillies have done says Rojas is guaranteed a spot. I'll agree his poor numbers crack the window to option him but they've also made it clear spring training stats don't matter as long as he is working hard and having a decent process. If they do demote him Pache will get more starts total than Merrifield every week (certainly Merrifield would get a few more, especially since Cave isn't necessarily better than him against RHP).

Both Schwarber and Thomson have said he'll play LF, maybe 5% of the time. That's only eight games. Schwarber wants to play in the field at least a little, and Thomson wants to be able to put others at DH a bit without actually sitting the big slugger.

Cave should not be guaranteed a spot, but they won't necessarily find someone better, just different (Dahl, or someone who's on another team right now).

Castillo is a AAA starter, he's not on the MLB roster. Covey being injured makes it easy to keep him for now (and then he may well clear waivers if they don't bring him back onto the 26). And Ortiz has options. Both the 7th and 8th spots in the pen will be held by 10 different players in the next three months. It's far more important that the 5th and 6th guys (Soto and Kerkering) work out. And that Hoffman is what he was last year, and Seranthony isn't.

Gelb thinks Brogdon is done but if they see him as just a mop-up guy they might try to hang onto him a little longer. Of course he could also clear, he has not been good since the '22 World Series. But he was good.

[Jazzhead]

A potential Achilles heel of this team, I think, is that one of their bench spots is occupied by a full-time DH. I'd love to see Schwarber get 40-50 starts in LF per year, so the bench can accommodate another real bat like Tommy Pham against good pitching. I think that's entirely reasonable but only if Rojas can make the team in center, since his range is the only way such a lineup could work.

[julio]

A potential Achilles heel of this team, I think, is that one of their bench spots is occupied by a full-time DH.

I don't follow. Which bench player is a full-time DH?

[zambonir]

Is it Merrifield?

The ship definitely sailed on Tommy Pham when they signed - and paid - Merrifield. And that was also really what locked in Rojas and Marsh, whereas Pham would have taken another 200 ABs away from the two of them.

Two starts a week in LF for Merrifeld is basically 50 starts. And if he can actually hit like the Phillies believe he can (and are paying for) he's a "real bat." If he's not, well, a lot of us will say told ya so, but for now, gotta hope there's bounce-back.

Would not want to see Schwarber in LF more than 10 times anyway, both for his knees and the OF defense.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Aramis Garcia with a well-struck 2B in today’s Spring training game. He’s having a good Spring. I know Stubbs is good in the clubhouse, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Garcia as the backup catcher.

[zambonir]

Well, he's certainly gonna be the guy they add to the 40 and call up if there's an injury, even if and when Marchan comes back.

But yeah, Stubbs isn't going anywhere. The Athletic just did a whole bit on how involved he is in running the pitching staff, catching all the side sessions, and doing the opposing scouting reports. Of course, that sounds like the job of the bullpen coach!

But Stubbs knows he has to do better. It's also really hard for any back-up catcher to hit playing that little. He was probably lucky in '22 and unlucky last year and it would be the same for anyone else.

[andyb]

Pretty sure he is referring to Schwarber. We do lose the ability to give players like Harper a day at DH. I just don't think that is worth much (and we just won't do it with Schwarber degrading the defense whenever he plays).

I would probably bet the over on Schwarber in the field though. I just figure stuff happens over 162 games and injuries/demotions will dictate a lot. I think Rob will play Schwarber in the outfield once or twice a month to keep him fresh out there. Beyond that it only takes an injury to someone like Marsh or Rojas or Castellanos to open up more outfield time. And if the alternative is putting Cave or Pache or Muzzioitti or Merrifield out there on a full time basis I am guessing we'll go offense in some of our lineups. Bringing up Hall from the minors is also an option if we have injuries and unless Harper is hurt that means DH would need to be shared.