Phillies Spring Training Discussion 2024

[bkox]

Lets start it off with some potential good news

Zack Wheeler and the Phillies have started negotiations on a potential contract extension, Wheeler said. It's early in the process. Can it happen before spring ends? "Hopefully it does," Wheeler said. "I love it here. We're happy here."

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) February 14, 2024

https://www.mlb.com/news/zack-wheeler-discusses-potential-contract-extension-with-phillies

[zambonir]

That's always been the vibe, compared to Nola. Because he's older and already did this once.

And that being the case, has probably been a consideration in the off-season moves as well. If he only signs a three or four year deal his AAV is likely going up. But it wouldn't surprise me - since it is the Phillies Way - if it's five or six to avoid just that.

[bkox]

if it's five or six to avoid just that.

That would extend his contract to his age 39 and age 40 season. Any chance hes got the same DNA as verlander?

Also would mean the 2029 Phillies would have a 36yo Nola, 39yo Wheeler, 37yo Harper and 36yo Turner taking up somewhere around 90-100M in salary.

[zambonir]

Yeah I don't know how they intend to handle it but I do know they don't care. They are not giving these guys the longer deals/out years because they think they'll be worth it then, only to lower to the AAV now. One or more of those guys will likely to be benched or injured or all-but-retired (or released).

In theory they either believe they will have a roster stocked with young cheaper players to mitigate that, or they are prepared to max out the CBT thresholds. Or they know a rebuilding period will come eventually.

[Jazzhead]

The difference is, hopefully, that they know these players and their motivation to stay in top physical shape and hungry for victory even with all the Benjamins.

[zambonir]

Yeah but there's still no way 4/4 players over 35 are all going to defy the age curve and stay at an elite level regardless of their talent, drive and conditioning. Sure, Nola and Wheeler could end up matching Verlander or Charlie Morton but both of those guys have also had an injury year (Morton's just happened to be when he was 32 and a Phillies player). Halladay and Lee were done at 35 (though Roy pitched one more season).

And Harper is already less valuable than he was two years ago (fielding positional downgrade, hasn't played a full season), while Turner is heading that way in the field at least (whether he does or doesn't stay at SS). Andrew McCutchen was no less of a high-character physical specimen. Joey Votto neither. You hope they stay useful and sneak in a couple of unexpectedly good years.

But it's okay! The players all deserve it (because they are underpaid earlier in their careers in what is still a flawed system), Middleton can afford it, and I'd rather have Nola and Wheeler (both as fan favorites and as players) than new free agents who would still cost just as much, even if they'd be younger in their out years (they still wouldn't be young, which is why the Phillies and everyone else also preferred Yamamoto to the others).

[Jazzhead]

The Phillies' innovation was to sign players to deals covering years beyond their primes in order to lower the average annual value. That's now become a trend. The Dodgers with Ohtani have taken that to the next level, paying him deferred compensation long after his career will be over. It'll be interesting to see how this impacts the fortunes and finances of teams in the "out" years of these contracts, especially when rosters will increasingly include several such players (as the Phils will find themselves by 2029). In our case, a permanent commitment to pay luxury taxes appears to be a likely reality.

[zambonir]

Well in Ohtani's case the deferral was his idea and stemmed from the unique circumstances of his other income exceeding his baseball income, as well as some possible tax avoidance. With any deferral the player has to be willing to do it because they are essentially taking less money in real value. Deferrals help the team more in terms of actual cash paid out, rather than AAV (it helps but not as dramatically). Doesn't really help the player at all except if they want to help the team or if they think they're going to be really bad at saving money for after their career.

[julio]

David Dahl Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More |...

[zambonir]

Jake Cave 2.0? He has a deceptively good career MLB OPS (nothing good since 2019).

[bkox]

He has a deceptively good career MLB OPS

the .918 at Coors field definitely helps that. 25 of his career 43 HRs at Coors

And the 1.141 OPS against the Phillies in 13 games. I thought I remembered him killing the Phillies

[zambonir]

Ha well, even Coors Field couldn't help him in the COVID season (0 HRs, .471 OPS). I assume he has had some injuries since then as well, or else he's just been a platoon player sharing time with actual prospects. Never more than 300 ABs the last two seasons, and for four different organizations/AAA teams. I reckon he's viewed mostly as AAAA/Lehigh Valley filler, which certainly doesn't preclude him getting another cup of coffee or competing with Cave in spring training.

[andyb]

Jake Cave 2.0? He has a deceptively good career MLB OPS (nothing good since 2019).

Not really the same profile. Never was that good a defensive player but supposedly had many more offensive tools. Colorado probably masked his shortcomings and he just stopped getting better when the pandemic hit. He really has not been great at AAA the last few years either. He might recover a bit to be as good as Cave was offensively last year, but that is not saying much.

Imagine he'll need to play well in Spring Training to get a AAA roster spot. No cost to looking however and there is always a non-zero chance he recovers to 90% of what he was because he is not that old. Kind of an outfield version of Kingery who just stopped getting better at a young age and then got progressively worse for various reasons.

[zambonir]

He's not young either. Yeah, all I really meant by Jake Cave 2.0 is he probaby won't amount to much more than Cave has. I certainly don't think he'll get the same kind of playing time but that only happened for Cave due to injuries to Schwarber, Harper and Hoskins (and his hot spring training).

I know nothing about his defense but he still managed to play some CF in his career.

[julio]

2/17/24 : Phillies sign RHP Ricardo Pinto

[zambonir]

No threat to Nola's status as the longest-standing Phillie (though I guess Buchanan is).

[andyb]

He was really good in the Caribbean Series (MVP) and the playoffs that preceded it. Not a bad extra arm to start at AAA.

[zambonir]

Manager Rob Thomson estimates that Schwarber will spend “more than 5% of his games” in the outfield.

“He’s going to get outfield reps because you’re going to have to give other guys days off,” Thomson said. “Harper, [Nick Castellanos], even some of the infielders, which moves some people around. He’s going to get some reps.”

Phillies’ Alec Bohm felt ‘well-prepared’ for his winning arbitration case

Apparently the Phillies' arbitration case against Bohm mostly focused on his poor defense, which is kind of funny given they publicly prefer to join fans in celebrating the eye test and Dickerson's coaching. But that's the business. Still kind of nuts that that they are prepared to pay some of the AAA salaries they are but tried to saved $600K on their starting 3B

[zambonir]

Just want to make sure this huge news is in three different threads

Phillies signed righty reliever Austin Brice to a minor-league deal. He’s in big-league camp. They’ll also be adding outfielder David Dahl and old friend Ricardo Pinto to the camp roster.

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) February 18, 2024

[julio]

First full-squad workouts are tomorrow, 2/19.