Phillies Spring Training Discussion 2024

[zambonir]

I'm sure you're right but DH is not a "bench spot," so just ill-phrased. And now that Harper is the 1B rather than the RF he really shouldn't need to get off his feet (especially since his injuries were all upper-body). Hoskins only DHed four times in 2022 (the same number as in 2018, when he was the LF). Of course before that there was no NL DH except in the short season.

I just reckon Hall's no better as a DH or 1B than having any of the guys you mention in the OF (or 1B, in Cave and Merrifield's case).

Would have been nice if Muzziotti could have beaten out Jake Cave last year and still be a factor this year but obviously they did not rate his AAA performance any higher than Cave's (and Cave was better overall I believe).

[andyb]

Hopefully we are talking about Rincones in the second half of the season as a potential injury sub too. He is really the guy that might hit some compared to our current injury replacement options and I think his defense in the corners is acceptable even if not special.

[kmc1019]

Noted in The Inquirer that McGarry will pitch as a reliever in AAA to start the season.

Abel really sharp again yesterday.

[dicemen99]

I've been following spring training since the 70s - I'm old. IME, no need to worry about Rojas. I'm usually rooting for our guys to get off to slow starts and then heat up the week before the season starts.

If I had to guess, Rojas & Schwarber will have tremendous Aprils, and Merrifield & Pache won't be able to hit their way out of a paper bag until May or June. Baseball is a game of streaks, no matter who you are. Some are just longer than others.

[zambonir]

If Schwarber has a good April that would be new!

Pache isn't really even having that good a spring training which also highlights how small/deceptive the samples are. He went 3 for 7 with two home runs, a walk and a 1.286 OPS in three games before it was even March and is 2 for 10 with a .400 OPS since then. So he was just one hit away from hitting .300 in that stretch but without the home runs had no SLG at all (and no walks either so also a .200 OBP).

Of course he's probably not making the team anyway.

Interesting about McGarry, they kept saying otherwise heading into this year. I wonder if their confidence in Sanchez and signing Wheeler also affected their thinking longer-term.

[andyb]

Maybe the Phillies are getting more serious about developing multi-inning relievers as a specific role. McGarry might be the rare 2-inning guy who throws hard like the 1-inning guys. Starting really seemed a longshot after last year in the minors.

[zambonir]

It did but they seemed intent on at least giving him another shot. He didn't really have a bad season, just an epic, disastrous, three-game stint in AAA (so disastrous it was just four innings) that you could certainly dismiss as an outlier (much as you have to dismiss his late 2022 stint there). This is probably better for him in terms of both focus and ability to help the big club (including this year). Probably no longer had trade value as a top starting pitcher prospect either (if he ever did).

They're saying he could still go back to starting, depending how it goes (and need in LV, presumably).

Mercado also sent "down," to stretch out as a bulk reliever. Phillips too.

[andyb]

Walking 36 in 54.2 innings in AA (at age 24 no less) is not exactly a good season either before his disastrous AAA stint. Even in success McGarry looks to be the type of starter that would be challenged to get through 5 innings. I know they have ironed out some things in his delivery, but it is probably the 3rd time they have said that. 17,7 pitches per inning at Reading. That was not the worst, but AA hitters are not major league hitters (or AAA hitters apparently).

[Austinfan]

Given that Abel continues to progress, and they have Turnbull, Phillips, etc. McGarry in the pen makes more sense.
Painter will be back next year, and they have the starting five in place for 2 years.
So why force McGarry into a role where he'll probably fail when he has a shot at succeeding as a RP.

In 2026 depending what they do with Suarez, and whether Walker holds up, Abel and Painter should be ready to step into the rotation.Strahm, Hoffman and Turnbull are UFAs in 2025, so bullpen depth should be a developmental priority this year.

[zambonir]

In 2026 depending what they do with Suarez, and whether Walker holds up, Abel and Painter should be ready to step into the rotation.Strahm, Hoffman and Turnbull are UFAs in 2025, so bullpen depth should be a developmental priority this year.

By which you mean they are UFAs after this season. Hoffman will be getting a big payday if he can do it again.

Probably fine to write off Walker if both of the youngsters pan out by 2026. Suarez is where it gets interesting. If he stays healthy would still be nice to extend him before his final arb next year.

[Callison]

Everything the Phillies have done says Rojas is guaranteed a spot.

I know he has great credentials, but the teams I've played on and the bands I've played in, you have to contribute. I like to think MLB is that way, based on performance, and Rojas is not performing hitting .161. Small sample and he has plenty of MLB experience to show he's better than that, but hearing about his off-season work on his hitting, I was hoping he'd be more prepared.

Sometimes when you adjust-to-improve the way you play a sport, as in swing a bat, the first thing that happens is you get worse. Could be where Rojas is.

The Merrifield story has yet to be told, IMHO. He's out to win PT and I wish him well, in spite of others' preferences, regardless of performance, that he just accept a minimal role.

The Phils concede a lot of LF if they put Schwarber in LF. He's slow. If you want to give Schwarber time in LF, do it during a blowout, when there's little risk. That will keep the rust off but not at the expense of the team's ability to cover LF and possibly lose a game.

The Phils' pen remains way strong on the top, say, 2/3. With all the arms the Phils brought in, they should be able to find a couple good ones for the bottom of the pen, hopefully new names. Only saw Marte once so far - first guy up got a double, then he shut everybody right down. CAN be good, but MIGHT blow up. Maybe he puts it together this season. Another Hoffman-like happy ending.

[Austinfan]

Suarez's playoff record, if he repeats one more time, would say he's worth a premium from a team that expects to reach the post-season every year. Walker on the other hand . . .

[andyb]

Walker on the other hand . . .

Has been worth 5.1 bWAR over the past 2 years compared to 4.9 for Suarez. I'd say they both have value and we don't know exactly what the future holds for either of them.

[zambonir]

And yet Walker put up (slightly) more WAR than Ranger last year in the regular season.

It is what it is, Walker's a sunk cost, Ranger's not.

Ironically Ranger might be similar to Eflin, a very good starter of clear 3 caliber or even better, but with a limited track record due to durability issues. Putting aside whether the Phillies made a mistake picking Walker over Eflin (though we can say that so far, and it will probably be true of that extra fourth year regardless) they may still be hesitant to lock Ranger up.... and he may want to reach free agency, just as it was with Eflin.

[andyb]

I am definitely concerned with Walker's lack of velocity and slow start. It is very possible he will regress into someone not worthy of his contract. He was worthy last year though. And Suarez really has not shown he can pitch a full season yet and one wonders if he will break if pushed beyond 150 or 160 innings.

It is nice to have both. We have a good 5-man rotation now with very shaky options beyond them (Allard, Turnbull, hoping Abel is ready).

[zambonir]

Yeah to even sit here and say the rotation is set for two years is a cocktail of hubris, optimism and denial, but obviously the front office knows that. The fact that not one starter went on the IL in-season is really rare, and something that is unlikely to repeat for two more. Between now and 2026 we could see them acquire someone at this trade deadline, or see both prospects step up, or see a new player replace Suarez or Walker in the long run.

Perhaps the best case scenario would be for Walker to have a great season and for Suarez to stay healthy and for Abel to look completely ready. Then they might have the luxury of unloading Walker. Of course they could always move Suarez back to the bullpen too (next year).

[schillingfan]

Perhaps the instead of saying the “the rotation is set” it would be more reasonable to say, the Phillies are in a better position with regard to starting pitchers for the near future than most teams. This is a corollary to “There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.” Also related to my favorite “relievers are fungible.” When it comes to pitching, you never know when the next disaster is coming and you can never be fully prepared and pessimism makes more sense than optimism.

[Austinfan]

Boy, we're real optimists today!
With Abel probably ready at some point this year and Painter next year, we just need someone like Turnbull to be able to patch in at #5 this season.
Of course, if Wheeler and Nola go down, it's "game over." But you can say that for every team.

[zambonir]

Wouldn't want to lose Suarez or Walker or Sanchez either. But anything is also survivable. At least until it isn't. Dodgers still won 100+ games last year while their rotation dropped one by one but it did catch up to them. And even using Suarez so sparingly by choice the Phillies were deeper than the Braves.

And then they weren't against the Dbacks.

Let's hope Nola remains as unique and durable as he's been, though perhaps his mechanics and velocity also serve him well in that regard. Wheeler and Walker have already had TJ. Suarez is still someone who seems like he might.

Ideally you don't want to actually need Abel this year. Spots starts, short-term injury call-up, depth. If he pitches great and forces the team to keep him up, terrific. Same thing with Painter, he's gonna have to spend 6-8 weeks, if not a whole half-season, in AAA next year.

[Austinfan]

Which is why guys like Strahm/Turnbull are important, if someone goes down permanently, you'll need Abel this year and Painter next year - but if it's a hammy or something else that's a month or two, you'd rather plug in a veteran and get 5 IP a start for 6 starts than rush a top prospect.

When Abel and Painter come up, hopefully it's for good as a regular in the rotation when they're ready.