Phillies Spring Training Discussion 2024

Getting close to knowing the final roster. I keep hearing Rojas is a lock. Rojas is a lock. The kid is only 23 and skipped AAA all together last year. To me, it just seems like a lot of pressure to expect him to master hitting and keep up with the amazing glove at the big league level.

To me more and more it looks like he needs to start at AAA. Having Pache makes this easier. Let Rojas play everyday without pressure at AAA and work on his swing. I also think they should keep Clemens over Cave. But that is just me.

But is it the end of the world if Rojas and Cave make the team over Pache and Clemens? Nope. These are good problems to have.

What about the bullpen - Bellatti, Ortiz, Marte, Brogdon - which one do you cut?
Does Walker start on the DL or stay in extended spring training? They won't need a fifth starter for a couple weeks.

Just a thought.

Bellatti is no longer on the 40. It will probably be Ortiz and Marte and Brogdon, or someone else who can't be optioned (Turnbull can be if he accepts). Covey will still be in the mix once he comes off the IL.

Jose Ruiz (also not on 40) still there too right?

With Walker a little shaky I have to think Turnbull makes the team as someone who can give you 2-3 innings. Assume Marchan is going on the 60-day IL so they will have a roster spot to play with. More is they have to DFA some players without options.

Doubt Caves would be claimed, Clemons is 27 and having a hot spring.
I don't think they'll really worry about DFA marginal RPs, if Brogdon isn't good enough to make the team, at 29 they won't lose sleep if he's claimed.

Who is Caves? Jake Cave, on the other hand, does seem to be the most likely earn the last spot because he is playing well and they might need more OF defense if Harper has to DH some (and someone else has to play 1B). Clemens is less good in the outfield so Cave probably has the upper hand if they don't go outside the organization.

Sosa is the only reserve seen as capable of playing good defense in the middle infield. Merrifield and Clemens do not do that and they probably do not want Stott to move around any more other than in an emergency. They did not do it at all last season.

Clemens could still make the roster and that might be about getting a left-handed 3B bat more than anything. If the need is more in the OF though (i.e. Rojas may not play all the time against RHP) then Cave is the better fit.

I've long been in favor of trading Sosa to get a LH IF on the bench but he's definitely a lock. Otherwise he'd have to be traded (decent salary, no options).

They don't really want to have Stott play SS either.

I think Clemens actually has played SS (and at least more recently than Merrifield), but that wouldn't happen either.

The Harper to DH thing is just not ideal regardless. You don't want to bench Schwarber or play him in LF too much. But if you were gonna Clemens can play 1B (so can Merrifield for that matter). I can't imagine they would pick a Cave/Marsh OF over a Schwarber/Marsh OF against RHP.

We've got bigger problems if Harper needs to DH often. The articles don't imply this would be for more than a few games. If I had to guess they may not want him to be in the field on back to back games for a week or so since he has played so little so far.

We have a day off after opening day, so maybe they want Harper to rest/DH on the two day games after night games (Sunday and then Wednesday) that first week.

I thought Cave deserved a shot last year. He got his shot, he failed. He's now 30. Move on.

Soto gave up 4 in the ninth for a 4-3 loss today. This spring is a BAD portent for the upcoming season. This game was better than most except for the lousy 9th inning, though. Cave had a nice hit early vs a tough lefty.

That is not how roster decisions are made. Is he the best fit for that roster spot today? He might be. And last year was not all bad. His AAA stats DO count even if offense was inflated that year. Guessing they translate into a 750-800 OPS major league equivalent performance. He played poorly for the big club of course, but he has had decent major league seasons before.

They would not have brought him back if they wanted to completely move on. They may well upgrade the position, but Cave is there because the Phillies like what he brings to the roster. Cheap left-handed bat with decent corner defense who does not need AB in the minors.

Spring training games are not always an indication of how the team will start the season, but no wins in the last ten games sure does not inspire confidence in me.

I'm looking forward to a fast start this year. A win in the first series will be great.

Yeah Cave could have easily lost his job if Dahl had taken it, or if Clemens could really play LF regularly, but that hasn't happened. He could have also still lost it to Pache if they decided they didn't need a LH bat on the bench at all for a while. Of course the roster isn't final for another six days (even then it's not).

Still not paying much mind to the team's ST record, but don't like to see that from Soto, We started this month saying that at least the guys doing that in the 9th wouldn't be on the team.

Cave had two decent ML seasons at age 25 and 26, since then, WRC+ 85, 50, 81, 66.
Despite having good AAA seasons, 2019 WRC+ 147, 2022: 130, 2023: 170
As his range declines, he's no longer a plus fielder at 31.
He is what he is, with zero upside.

And he still may be the best player in camp for the roster spot. Pache is much more valuable. There is just a question whether the roster is better with both him and Rojas on it since Merriffield would get most of the right-handed LF playing time in that situation.

You may not like Cave, but if so be angry at the Phillies for not getting somebody better. And the AAA stuff does count. It was recent and a large sample and suggests Cave is at least a little better than he was at the major league level last year.

AAA performances are far more meaningful for players in their early to mid-20s, after a few years in AAA ball, hitters learn how to "play" junk ball pitchers (who lack command or they'd be in the Show) and younger pitchers. When he fails to translate that kind of production to the majors, it's obvious he has major flaws which ML pitchers know how to exploit.

I'm skeptical of Clemons as well, WRC+ 104, 121, 129 in AAA.

Dahl is a better bet, ML WRC+ 113, 111, 111 then fell apart due to injury, so if he's healthy, you can at least make a case he might rebound.

Luplow is also 30, but he's had the most recent ML level performance in 2021, WRC+ 117, followed by 79 and last year marred by injuries.

There is much more evidence that AAA is simply a level below the majors. Performance in AAA can be evaluated just like performance at any other level. Cave obviously learned how to dominate at AAA like players often do repeating a level. It is still meaningful though.

I guess the Phillies are dumb because they obviously see that AAA performance as an indication that Cave is better potentially than the typical AAA player. Dahl is really not a better bet. He has gotten worse the last few years. He is worse in the majors AND worse in AAA. Stats are meaningful whereever they occur. More data on a player is always better than less. As I said, Cave's AAA performance projects to a better player than Dahl. ZIPS has him at 740 OPS while Dahl is at 684 OPS. That is why (along with scouting reports) he is with the Phillies now.

In every sport, there are players who excel at a level just below the top, but have a fatal flaw that's exposed against better competition. When a player tears up AAA at a younger age, he may or may not have that flaw, when a player consistently tears up AAA at an older age, he obviously has a fatal flaw if he fails repeatedly at the next level. You see this in ice hockey with players who are AHL or KHL stars, but can't cut it in the NHL (usually lack of speed), you see this in baseball where a hitter can't hit a breaking ball but can lay off it against AAA pitchers who don't have command, but is helpless against ML pitchers, or conversely, can wait on breaking balls in AAA but can't handle heat at the ML level.

In the case of Dahl, it's obviously injuries, not flaws, that have held him back, same with Luplaw - which is why they're good gambles. Often those injuries sap a player's ability and lead to early retirement, but there are a number of players who rebound once they get healthy again. Cave has had numerous shots at the majors, with substantial PA in each shot, at some point there just isn't anything there.