Phillies Spring Training Discussion 2024

I thought Cave deserved a shot last year. He got his shot, he failed. He's now 30. Move on.

Soto gave up 4 in the ninth for a 4-3 loss today. This spring is a BAD portent for the upcoming season. This game was better than most except for the lousy 9th inning, though. Cave had a nice hit early vs a tough lefty.

That is not how roster decisions are made. Is he the best fit for that roster spot today? He might be. And last year was not all bad. His AAA stats DO count even if offense was inflated that year. Guessing they translate into a 750-800 OPS major league equivalent performance. He played poorly for the big club of course, but he has had decent major league seasons before.

They would not have brought him back if they wanted to completely move on. They may well upgrade the position, but Cave is there because the Phillies like what he brings to the roster. Cheap left-handed bat with decent corner defense who does not need AB in the minors.

Spring training games are not always an indication of how the team will start the season, but no wins in the last ten games sure does not inspire confidence in me.

I'm looking forward to a fast start this year. A win in the first series will be great.

Yeah Cave could have easily lost his job if Dahl had taken it, or if Clemens could really play LF regularly, but that hasn't happened. He could have also still lost it to Pache if they decided they didn't need a LH bat on the bench at all for a while. Of course the roster isn't final for another six days (even then it's not).

Still not paying much mind to the team's ST record, but don't like to see that from Soto, We started this month saying that at least the guys doing that in the 9th wouldn't be on the team.

And he still may be the best player in camp for the roster spot. Pache is much more valuable. There is just a question whether the roster is better with both him and Rojas on it since Merriffield would get most of the right-handed LF playing time in that situation.

You may not like Cave, but if so be angry at the Phillies for not getting somebody better. And the AAA stuff does count. It was recent and a large sample and suggests Cave is at least a little better than he was at the major league level last year.

AAA performances are far more meaningful for players in their early to mid-20s, after a few years in AAA ball, hitters learn how to "play" junk ball pitchers (who lack command or they'd be in the Show) and younger pitchers. When he fails to translate that kind of production to the majors, it's obvious he has major flaws which ML pitchers know how to exploit.

I'm skeptical of Clemons as well, WRC+ 104, 121, 129 in AAA.

Dahl is a better bet, ML WRC+ 113, 111, 111 then fell apart due to injury, so if he's healthy, you can at least make a case he might rebound.

Luplow is also 30, but he's had the most recent ML level performance in 2021, WRC+ 117, followed by 79 and last year marred by injuries.

There is much more evidence that AAA is simply a level below the majors. Performance in AAA can be evaluated just like performance at any other level. Cave obviously learned how to dominate at AAA like players often do repeating a level. It is still meaningful though.

I guess the Phillies are dumb because they obviously see that AAA performance as an indication that Cave is better potentially than the typical AAA player. Dahl is really not a better bet. He has gotten worse the last few years. He is worse in the majors AND worse in AAA. Stats are meaningful whereever they occur. More data on a player is always better than less. As I said, Cave's AAA performance projects to a better player than Dahl. ZIPS has him at 740 OPS while Dahl is at 684 OPS. That is why (along with scouting reports) he is with the Phillies now.

In every sport, there are players who excel at a level just below the top, but have a fatal flaw that's exposed against better competition. When a player tears up AAA at a younger age, he may or may not have that flaw, when a player consistently tears up AAA at an older age, he obviously has a fatal flaw if he fails repeatedly at the next level. You see this in ice hockey with players who are AHL or KHL stars, but can't cut it in the NHL (usually lack of speed), you see this in baseball where a hitter can't hit a breaking ball but can lay off it against AAA pitchers who don't have command, but is helpless against ML pitchers, or conversely, can wait on breaking balls in AAA but can't handle heat at the ML level.

In the case of Dahl, it's obviously injuries, not flaws, that have held him back, same with Luplaw - which is why they're good gambles. Often those injuries sap a player's ability and lead to early retirement, but there are a number of players who rebound once they get healthy again. Cave has had numerous shots at the majors, with substantial PA in each shot, at some point there just isn't anything there.

Dahl has not been good for 5 years. It is a little more than injuries. Bottom line is the Phillies fundamentally disagree with you. Is Cave more than a AAAA player? Probably not. But he is also probably better than the alternatives in camp and ignoring half his playing record is just not a good way to evaluate him.

Also Dahl was only good in Colorado yeah?

They're all AAAA players, and while I'm not convinced Cave's AAA/ST mean much at this point when you do have last year's major league performance to go on, he's still no better or worse than the others, he's on the 40, and I'm sure his being on the team last year is a not insignificant factor.

Still pretty normal to fill out a bench with a player of that quality in any case. The issue is more that the Phillies still lack a young player (even at the level of a Luke Williams/Guthrie/Maton/Vierling/Haseley) for the role. The ones they have (Pache, Hall, Clemens, Wilson who's not really young but is at least on the 40) either bat from the wrong side or play the wrong position.

We'll see what happens between now and next weekend.

Phillies absolutely need both A ball teams to rock out, and some prospects to push their way to AA this year.
Can't do much about 2024, but hopefully young players will be in AAA by 2025 and 2026 and they'll have more options than broke down veterans and AAAA types.
Shows why you need a top ten farm system even when you have money if you want to seriously compete every year.

And easier to tell about Kingery. All of these guys are marginal and throw the spaghetti against the wall and see if it sticks guys. Totally fungible. I admit, in my mind so is Merrifield and I may very well be proven wrong on that one as he only needs to be okay for one year.

By the way, why are the spelling police out in such force lately?

Just to be snarky and extra-argumentative? Also that's the tradition set from the top

But also for real I think people really don't know who someone means when a name is mangled. And I don't know why anyone wouldn't use the edit function. (I make typos in almost every post, and probably don't catch all of them either. Have also had mods go into my post and fix them for me.

I agree Merrifield may well be just as big a fungible. And therefore perfectly fine in the limited role for which he is overpaid. Though Harrison (who was fairly paid) obviously was not last year.

Kingery could probably do almost as well as Sosa if he was the actual utility IF. I wouldn't really try to roll with him in the OF at all but you could say the same about Merrifield. And Clemens is probably better and a better fit as far as giving Bohm days off.

Sosa obviously the better SS.

I'm sorry, but I have to comment here.

I don't get bugged by somebody misspelling Luplow's name (if that's the spelling!), because he's nobody much, he's new, and he's probably gone soon.

And I'm not bothered when people get their wires totally crossed and refer to one player while meaning another (I'm 70; this stuff happens!).

I did get bugged at people who couldn't manage to keep Scott Rolen and Jimmy Rollins separate, in their writing if not in their heads. It seems to me that there's some kind of minimum consciousness that's required to actually be a Phillies phan, and keeping potential Hall of Fame Phillies separate from one another feels like it should be part of that minimum.

Now, when we had a Machado and a Mercado, and people confused that...yeah, that's understandable. And combining them into a Merchado... well, he was almost as outstanding as Kevin Oudeis.

Phils' commitment to players - once you get it, the Phils are behind you until you absolutely force them to think again. Cave, for example.

There's talk here that ST stats are meaningless, but that's what's available to measure performance. Cave is hitting. He's always looked like he can hit. Balanced at the plate. Seems to have a good eye as he decides when to swing. Knows what it's like to be a hitter from his experience at AAA. The Phils have been committed to him. He looks like he's ready to reward that commitment. IT COULD HAPPEN!

Would be a nice change to have somebody on the Phils' bench that can hit.

Going back to the early '80s, the debate about the meaning of minor league stats has progressed significantly. Bill James' first article on this was called the Ken Phelps all-stars, where he looked at AAA players and said that a certain number of them, headlined by Phelps, had shown by their statistical production in the minors (mostly AAA), that they could be above-average players in the big leagues. This is from his original essay, I think in 1982 or so:

"See, on the one hand you’ve got the Henry Cottos, and on the other hand, you’ve got your Ken Phelpses. If Henry Cotto is a major league ballplayer, I’m an airplane. Cotto is one of those guys who runs well and throws pretty decent, and one year he hit .270-something (in less than 150 at-bats, in Wrigley Field, with a secondary average of .164), so you get guys like Don Zimmer who will rave about this great young prospect and keep trading for him, so he’ll get about eight chances to play in the major leagues before they figure out he can’t hit. At first when he doesn’t hit they’ll say he just needs more playing time, and then they’ll say he needs to stop wiggling his elbows while the pitcher is in motion, and then they’ll say he needs to point his lead foot and learn to keep his weight back, and then they’ll say he needs to be more aggressive at the plate, and then they’ll say he needs to go back to wiggling his elbows. They always figure that if you can run and throw they’ll teach you to hit. Of course they can’t teach anybody to hit, but they always think they can, so they keep trying.

Then on the other hand you’ve got your Ken Phelpses. Ken Phelps has been a major league ballplayer since at least 1980, when he hit .294 with 128 walks and a slugging percentage close to .600 at AAA Omaha, a tough park for a hitter. Through 1985 he had 567 at-bats in the major leagues—one season’s worth—with 40 home runs and 92 RBI. The Mariners still didn’t want to let him play. See, the problem was that Chuck Cottier, in his day, was a Henry Cotto, a guy who could run and throw, but couldn’t play baseball. Most major league managers were those kind of guys. Ken Phelps, on the other hand, can’t run particularly well (though he isn’t exceptionally slow, either) and doesn’t throw well, and if you’re that kind of player and want to play major league ball you’d better go 7-for-20 in your first week in the majors, or they’ll decide it’s time to take another look at Henry Cotto. Ken Phelps in his first two shots at major league pitching went 3-for-26. Despite his limitations, the man is a major league player. He’s a major league player because he plays good defense at first base and has a secondary average over .500, so that he can both drive in and score runs."

Phelps stats? 1,854 at-bats, 123 homers and 313 RBIs. He produced 10 WAR over seven semi-regular seasons, and would probably have doubled his number if he had been given more chances, especially early on. His wRC+ for four of his late-20s early 30s seasons was 143, 148, 148, 160. Seattle still did not give him ABs, and barely played him the year after his 143 wRC+ season.

The point I'm trying to make is that the argument that 'AAA stats (when adjusted for level and context) don't project to the major leagues just as well as MLB stats' is over. Several papers have been written showing the deviation is equal, on average, to performance predicted by MLB stats. That what the good projection models like ZIPS and Steamer have shown repeatedly. Cave and Clemens, IF GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY, are projected by ZIPS to be about 1-1.5 WAR players in about 200-300 ABs. Dahl projects to 0 WAR, and Luplow to about 0.5 WAR.

The Phils see these players about the same way analytics sees them. I would rather have a Nick Maton or Matt Vierling type who might have an upside, but we are fresh out of those guys, barring a trade.

The reality is we chose to spend money on other things including Merrifield (who I might not love at this stage in his career but admit the chance of him hitting more than Cave is pretty good). We hoped Rojas would be ready and still hope that. If Rojas is ready there simply are not a lot of pinch hit ABs on this team and Merrifield would take most of the extra OF playing time. The only time we would pinch hit for Rojas would be in the bottom of the 9th when future defense is less important.

Cave does have an upside. His ZIPS projection of a 740 OPS would be just fine for a AAAA spare part. If he makes the team I hope he delivers that.